To be clear, that three countries with conflicting interests in Syria have been working together for two years is a major accomplishment. Obviously, some issues are still on the table: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, grows stronger in Idlib. There are disagreements over the proposed members of the constitutional committee. Russia is committed to keeping Bashar Assad in power. Finally, the future of the PKK's Syrian branch, the People's Protection Units (YPG), remains unclear. Yet, the Astana process is absolutely crucial for success in Geneva.
The most recent developments in the region make it necessary for the trilateral cooperation in Astana to continue. In the wake of journalist Jamal Khashoggi's slaying, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were forced to keep a low profile. The lack of international interest in the Warsaw summit possibly attests to that fact. Going forward, the United States is unlikely to talk the European Union into joining the anti-Iran bloc. As a matter of fact, the Europeans just added Saudi Arabia to their terror finance risk list. Despite the Trump administration's continued support, the U.S. Congress keeps bringing up Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's role in the Khashoggi murder. U.S. President Donald Trump won't get to relax until that problem goes away.
The Khashoggi murder sent the American-Israeli alliance in the Gulf into a tailspin. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's crown prince is unlikely to impose the so-called deal of the century on Palestine now. Nor does the shifting balance of power in Syria, Yemen and Iraq serve Gulf interests. In the end, the Gulf will be forced to play defense to stay in the game.
The Warsaw and Sochi summits did not just take place on the same day. They also embody two opposite approaches to the future of the Middle East. Turkey is crucial for both sides. In light of the country's unwillingness to jump on the anti-Iran bandwagon, Israel and the Gulf designated it as a threat. From the Gulf perspective, Turkey is now a regional power that must be contained. As such, the UAE has stepped up its smear campaign against Turkey and Erdoğan through lobbyists and think tanks in Washington. This is no surprise, as counter-revolutionary forces in the Middle East have long viewed Turkish democracy and Erdoğan's popularity as a threat.
Here's the takeaway: The Warsaw summit was part of a stillborn project with no real connection to the situation on the ground. Sochi, by contrast, represented an effort to foster international cooperation to end bloodshed.
[Daily Sabah, 16 February 2019]
