Can the new Damascus administration overcome security issues?
With the removal of the Assad regime, the new Syrian administration has faced numerous challenges. In addition to international recognition, sanctions, poverty and infrastructure problems, the country also struggles with internal security issues. These issues can be categorized into three main groups, namely, remnants of the regime, Druze armed groups and PKK/YPG.
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Bleeding on all fronts: Multiple crises of the Middle East
In recent years, the Middle East has been undergoing a multilayered transformation process that goes beyond the usual tremors.
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Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Washington took place at a pivotal moment when the U.S. is redefining its foreign policy priorities.
After the Syrian opposition overthrew the 61-year-long Baath regime, a new period started in the country. A transition government was established under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa. As soon as the new government was established, it began to restructure and rebuild the state. Some critical steps were taken for the consolidation of the political system. There are many good signs that point to a bright future for Syria, but there are also some significant challenges that need to be overcome.
The Syrian opposition groups overthrew the 61-year-old Baath regime on Dec. 8, 2024. Thus, the Syrian revolution process that started in 2011 ended after 13 years of resistance against the despotic Bashar Assad's rule. The majority of the Syrian population welcomed the regime change and the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa. However, some regional and global powers have immediately begun to look for ways to intervene in Syrian domestic politics. These powers attempted to exploit the minorities living in the country.
During a recent diplomatic engagement, Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan underscored Türkiye’s commitment to fostering a regional counterterrorism framework independent of global hegemonic influence during his visit to Baghdad. Subsequent statements from Fidan revealed that a preliminary agreement had been reached for a joint cooperation mechanism involving Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Türkiye. The inaugural meeting of this quadrilateral alliance, initially centered on combating Daesh, is set to convene in Jordan with the participation of high-ranking officials, including the ministers of Foreign Affairs and National Defense, alongside the National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
Assad’s ouster raises gains and risks for Syria and Türkiye
With the ouster of Bashar Assad’s regime and the end of a nearly 14-year civil war, Syria is looking to a new future of abundant opportunities and several risks that could derail any effort to rebuild, but neighboring Türkiye is lending a helping hand.
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Is Iran strengthening or becoming isolated?
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
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A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
Hezbollah and the PKK use black market relations and criminal networks to receive huge amounts of easy money.
Russia wouldn't want to lose face in Tehran despite having bowed to Israeli pressures to limit their support for Bashar Assad and Hezbollah. Willing to do anything to weaken the Assad regime and Iran, Israel openly supports a federal solution.
