The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2022.

As the Western-dominated liberal world order gives way to multipolarity, the opposition seems to think romantically about the possibility of aligning with this past reality

Considering Turkey’s geostrategic location and its military and political power, Western countries need to calculate the cost of alienating Ankara

With its new diplomatic engagements, Turkey will create further windows of opportunities to restore its foreign policy

Turkey and the European Union seek a positive agenda. It would serve the interests of both parties if the European Council’s meeting on March 25-26 transforms that pursuit into a concrete policy. After all, it is high time that the Turkey-EU relationship undergoes a strategic assessment.

Policymakers in the United States are trying to transform President Joe Biden’s campaign pledge – 'America is back' – into the Biden doctrine.

The PKK terrorists' execution of 13 unarmed Turkish citizens in Gara, northern Iraq, will remain the subject of heated political debate for some time. The debate could have an impact on Turkey's foreign policy if it builds on the political consciousness that awakens following events of this nature and supports our fight against terrorism – rather than the opposition’s accusations.

Before the European Council's leaders' summit two months ago, experts and journalists in Turkey discussed the European Union's possible sanctions. The frozen EU agenda came into the Turkish public's focus with the sanctions threat. Both sides knew that sanctions were illogical and would not contribute to bilateral relations.

Strategic Flexibility under Geopolitical Anxiety

Sharing similar concerns in the region, Ankara and Baghdad have opened a new page in cooperation, which is particularly bad news for PKK terrorists

Iran's ruling elite has translated a poem that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recited in Baku, Azerbaijan, into political tension. While politicians made aggressive statements, Iranian media outlets accused the Turkish leader of pursuing a leadership role in the Muslim world and a policy of Ottomanism and pan-Turkism. Others claimed Ankara was fueling separatism in Iran, putting the country's territorial integrity at risk.

Ankara’s intervention in Libya fueled a fresh debate in European and Middle Eastern capitals on Turkey's role in the world. Reflecting the view that Turkey has evolved into a more powerful player, that discussion has two dimensions: First, it concentrates on the concrete shifts in the balance of power in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, it is a propaganda war with lots of speculation about "real" intentions. It would be impossible to make sense of Turkey’s most recent moves, capabilities and objectives without distinguishing those two aspects.

The March 5 agreement between Turkey and Russia put an end to the military confrontation in Idlib, Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, shook hands on that deal to de-escalate what had become serious bilateral tensions. The 2018 Sochi agreement has thus been updated.

SETA Security Radar attempts to anticipate the course of major security issues Turkey faces and how to develop and enhance sound and relevant responses within this increasingly challenging regional security environment.

The conduct of German authorities toward terrorist groups varies as the country favors some, such as the YPG, hesitating to hold the terrorists accountable under the law and disregarding judicial requirements.