The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for the 16th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit. Besides attending ECO’s General Assembly meeting, he held meetings with the host, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and President Ersin Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.

There are two main milestones in restructuring Saudi Arabian foreign policy in the post-Cold War period, namely, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the Arab insurgencies and revolutions that erupted in 2011. These two significant developments have vastly changed regional and global balances, leading to the redefinition of Saudi foreign policy preferences.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s address at the 78th United Nations General Assembly provided a profound insight into the global and regional priorities that guide Turkish foreign policy. In an era marked by escalating global and regional power rivalries, growing global uncertainties and a changing regional geopolitical landscape prevalent with security challenges, Türkiye faces the imperative of redefining its foreign policy.

There is a widely held belief that Turkish foreign policy is currently undergoing a significant shift. Particularly in the aftermath of the presidential elections on May, a noticeable process has unfolded wherein Türkiye has been actively working to mend its relationships with Europe.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan delivered his most comprehensive speech on his vision of a national foreign policy and the Foreign Ministry’s role at the 14th Ambassadors Conference. Stressing that the global system was experiencing “complex and multiple crises,” he highlighted injustice, risks and the need for change. Arguing that Türkiye, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership, shall be among the countries shaping the new international system, Fidan added that the "Century of Türkiye" vision’s foreign policy objective was to transform Türkiye into a “system-building player.”

The grain corridor has resurfaced on the global agenda as a sort of ideological fight. On July 17, Russia announced it would not extend that agreement, which was signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts. Specifically, Moscow says it won’t honor the agreement unless sanctions targeting Russian fertilizer companies are lifted.

Deepening Türkiye’s ties with those three Gulf states in trade, defense, technology, communication and security amounts to more than just reciprocal investments. After all, Türkiye has been gaining influence over the balance of power in that region. The country now seeks to form strategic alliances with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – as it did with Doha several years ago. It is also possible for other Gulf states to become part of that trend.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Monday as part of his tour of the Gulf states. Over the course of four days, he will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) with a focus on investments and commercial relations. However, it is possible to argue that Erdoğan’s trip goes beyond strictly economic relations and marks the beginning of a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the Gulf.

The latest crisis in Turkey-EU relations has erupted over the increasingly frequent rejection of Turkish citizens' Schengen visa applications in the past year by EU countries.

Since the restructuring of the state administration in the wake of the failed coup attempt in July 2016, Türkiye has been following a holistic foreign policy. Several significant changes were made to increase the effectiveness of Turkish foreign policy.

We experienced another historic night on May 14. The number of votes President Erdoğan received, surpassing 27 million, represents the highest vote count ever recorded. Despite the theories that 5 million new voters would be a handicap for him, the sense of "enough is enough" among the electorate would help secure victory for the opposition, and the economic problems would guarantee a change in power, we saw that these claims did not materialize in the results. The problems among the opposition, their inability to offer a clear message despite the formulation of a joint program, and the difficulties faced by candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in persuading large masses determined the fate of the election. Thanks to the strong psychological advantage brought by the first round, Erdogan will secure a greater proportional advantage and win in the second round.

Türkiye will hold a historic election that could influence both regional and global power balances. Under the leadership of President Erdogan over the past 20 years, Türkiye has faced significant challenges and achieved important successes. When looking at Türkiye's role in the international arena, we have seen that it has been managing regional conflicts and global power struggles with its own foreign policy will. The election will have critical results not only for domestic political developments, the economy and security, but also for foreign policy.

Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.

Today, we are living in a systemic transition period in which the world is experiencing an international systemic crisis. Deep uncertainty and instability have been dominating the global system. The rivalry between global powers has been intensifying every day. Unfortunately, there is no established international order and no stable relationship between even members of the same alliance. Most hostilities and friendships are temporary; relations between any two states can change quickly.