What are Turkey's power and intent?

Ankara’s intervention in Libya fueled a fresh debate in European and Middle Eastern capitals on Turkey's role in the world. Reflecting the view that Turkey has evolved into a more powerful player, that discussion has two dimensions: First, it concentrates on the concrete shifts in the balance of power in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, it is a propaganda war with lots of speculation about "real" intentions. It would be impossible to make sense of Turkey’s most recent moves, capabilities and objectives without distinguishing those two aspects.

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What are Turkey's power and intent
Turkish foreign policy during pandemic period

Turkish foreign policy during pandemic period

Turkey has been following a two-track foreign policy for the last two decades. On the one hand, Turkey has been following an Ankara-centered and relatively independent foreign policy. After the collapse of the bipolar world, Turkey, similar to many other countries, has been trying to increase autonomy in its foreign policy.

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The recent COVID-19 pandemic started as a global health crisis, but it immediately spread to and started to influence the other domains of life all over the world. The crisis directly affected economies across the globe. Some analysts argue that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy may be deeper and more widespread than the impact of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Like all global economic crises, the COVID-19 crisis will also have a significant impact on the global power configuration. A new international system may emerge, or the existing system may be revised entirely because of the direct and indirect consequences of the recent crisis.

The Syrian crisis is one of the best examples of this approach. The Bashar Assad regime has killed more than half a million innocent civilians by using prohibited weapons of mass destruction, including barrel bombs and chemical weapons..

Despite supporting opposite sides, Turkey and Russia have maintained dialogue for the last several years in the Syrian crisis. Together with Iran, another Bashar Assad supporter, they initiated the Astana Process. They have taken several significant steps to lessen the level of violence in the country. However, the Assad regime has insistently violated the cease-fire and continued its attacks against the opposition and civilian targets.

The year 2019, which set the stage for extraordinary developments, has now ended. Living the fast life must be the distinguishing feature of modern times. Over the last year, the world talked about Brexit, NATO's future, U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment, Israeli expansionism, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, protests in Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, France and Bolivia, trade wars, the S-400 deal, Turkey's local elections, the Syrian civil war, Operation Peace Spring, the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Aramco attacks, Turkey's new indigenous car, Kanal Istanbul, U.S. sanctions, economic recovery, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.

Turkey in 2020: Regional power and global actor

The title of my last Daily Sabah column from last year was: “Turkey in 2019: From an Emerging Economy to an Emerging Power.” The article showed how, over the course of just one year, Turkey proved that its economy was robust enough to resist the sustained economic and political attacks inflicted upon it over the last several years and that its military is strong enough to influence global multilateral platforms and sit at the negotiation table as an equal partner with some of the most influential global powers, including the United States and Russia.

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Turkey in 2020 Regional power and global actor
Haftar is Russia's stone to kill many birds

Haftar is Russia's stone to kill many birds

Renegade general Khalifa Haftar, who claims to be the commander of a militia called the Libyan National Army (LNA), is attacking the Libyan capital of Tripoli in a renewed attempt to take down the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).

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The most recent decision made by the U.S. government can be considered the last nail in the coffin of the international system. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the U.S. will soften its position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

The United States has declared that it killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Daesh, after a successful military operation on Oct. 27. The death of Baghdadi will be a new turning point for the struggle against international terrorism and for Middle Eastern politics. The de-territorialization of Daesh was also a turning point, because with de-territorialization, Daesh had lost its claim on a caliphate and statehood. Therefore, in the near future, it has to restructure itself according to the new realities.

Turkey has been repeatedly emphasizing its determination to clear its border with Syria from terrorist elements. For this reason, Turkish officials have been trying to persuade their American counterparts to stop supporting the People's Protection Units (YPG)/Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and not to oppose its long-planned military operation.

During the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 17, two speeches grabbed the world's attention. The first one was by U.S. President Donald Trump, the other speech was delivered by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. These two speeches reflected two opposite political perspectives.

In recent days, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's remarks added a new twist to this mix. On the one hand, he is laying the groundwork for his upcoming address to the United Nations General Assembly, conveying messages to relevant world leaders. At the same time, Erdoğan is unveiling his new road map for party politics. Two topics, i.e. emerging political movements and the safe zone/refugee debate, have been around for some time. The third issue, Turkey's intention to obtain nuclear warheads, is new.

This chaotic period, which intensified or started with the Arab Spring insurgencies, has been deepening every other day..

Unilateralism and the arbitrary policies of global powers cause international conflicts, foreign interventions and political instability. Therefore, most global and regional powers have lost confidence in the international system, universal principles and the globalization process.

Turkey and the United States are setting up a joint operations center at Şanlıurfa in Turkey under a recent agreement. That U.S. European Command (EUCOM), as opposed to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), commanders are involved in negotiations reflects both sides' commitment to the deal.

The political and economic deadlock and protests that have been going on for the last eight months in Sudan demonstrate that the country suffers from a typical postcolonial illness, experienced by almost every other African nation.

The United States is holding an international conference – in reality an economic workshop – in Bahrain on June 25-26 to launch the Middle East peace plan by encouraging investment and economic promises in the Palestinian territory.

Mohammed Morsi, the first and only democratically elected president of Egypt, passed away on June 17. He was unable to resist the suppression of the Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi regime and suffered a heart attack during his defense in court. Everybody knows that he was isolated in jail, only able to see his family a few times over the past six years. Many observers claim that he was poisoned and that it had killed him gradually. These claims are yet to be confirmed; however, we all know that his death was not natural. The el-Sissi regime killed him, directly or indirectly.

Tensions between the United States and Iran swing like a pendulum between confrontation and negotiation.

The U.S. is concentrating too much on the Middle East, which may cost it dearly; it has already issues such as the trade war with China, the Venezuelan crisis and Russia's increasing global effectiveness to handle