Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition between regional powers. While Turkey’s recent assertiveness of her rights in the Eastern Mediterranean drew renewed attention to the region, this round of confrontation has been long in the making.
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The French president seems to forget that people in the region already know that France is not a regional power and indeed, has colonial fantasies.
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One of the main reasons for Greece’s anti-Turkish policies is the dramatic change in the balance of power between Turkey and Greece. Turkey began to play in the upper league and became a major regional power. Therefore, Greece has been trying to prevent the further rise of Turkish power in the region, and for this reason, it is insistently trying to provoke Turkey and push it over its limits.
Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean are escalating anew to dangerous levels. Turkey responded to a Greek-Egyptian maritime agreement, which undermined Germany’s mediation efforts, by dispatching the research vessel Oruç Reis, alongside frigates, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek military consequently went into high alert.
In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which officially belongs to Azerbaijan. Like the former Soviet Union, the United Nations also recognizes the region as part of Azerbaijan. Therefore, all steps taken by Armenia violate the main principles of international law and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. The occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia is similar to the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights: The occupier wants to control a strategically important region to take advantage of its foe.
Ankara’s intervention in Libya fueled a fresh debate in European and Middle Eastern capitals on Turkey's role in the world. Reflecting the view that Turkey has evolved into a more powerful player, that discussion has two dimensions: First, it concentrates on the concrete shifts in the balance of power in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, it is a propaganda war with lots of speculation about "real" intentions. It would be impossible to make sense of Turkey’s most recent moves, capabilities and objectives without distinguishing those two aspects.
Turkey has been following a two-track foreign policy for the last two decades. On the one hand, Turkey has been following an Ankara-centered and relatively independent foreign policy. After the collapse of the bipolar world, Turkey, similar to many other countries, has been trying to increase autonomy in its foreign policy.
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The recent COVID-19 pandemic started as a global health crisis, but it immediately spread to and started to influence the other domains of life all over the world. The crisis directly affected economies across the globe. Some analysts argue that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy may be deeper and more widespread than the impact of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Like all global economic crises, the COVID-19 crisis will also have a significant impact on the global power configuration. A new international system may emerge, or the existing system may be revised entirely because of the direct and indirect consequences of the recent crisis.
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The Syrian crisis is one of the best examples of this approach. The Bashar Assad regime has killed more than half a million innocent civilians by using prohibited weapons of mass destruction, including barrel bombs and chemical weapons..
Despite supporting opposite sides, Turkey and Russia have maintained dialogue for the last several years in the Syrian crisis. Together with Iran, another Bashar Assad supporter, they initiated the Astana Process. They have taken several significant steps to lessen the level of violence in the country. However, the Assad regime has insistently violated the cease-fire and continued its attacks against the opposition and civilian targets.
The year 2019, which set the stage for extraordinary developments, has now ended. Living the fast life must be the distinguishing feature of modern times. Over the last year, the world talked about Brexit, NATO's future, U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment, Israeli expansionism, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, protests in Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, France and Bolivia, trade wars, the S-400 deal, Turkey's local elections, the Syrian civil war, Operation Peace Spring, the assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Aramco attacks, Turkey's new indigenous car, Kanal Istanbul, U.S. sanctions, economic recovery, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.
The title of my last Daily Sabah column from last year was: “Turkey in 2019: From an Emerging Economy to an Emerging Power.” The article showed how, over the course of just one year, Turkey proved that its economy was robust enough to resist the sustained economic and political attacks inflicted upon it over the last several years and that its military is strong enough to influence global multilateral platforms and sit at the negotiation table as an equal partner with some of the most influential global powers, including the United States and Russia.
Renegade general Khalifa Haftar, who claims to be the commander of a militia called the Libyan National Army (LNA), is attacking the Libyan capital of Tripoli in a renewed attempt to take down the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).
The most recent decision made by the U.S. government can be considered the last nail in the coffin of the international system. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the U.S. will soften its position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
The United States has declared that it killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Daesh, after a successful military operation on Oct. 27. The death of Baghdadi will be a new turning point for the struggle against international terrorism and for Middle Eastern politics. The de-territorialization of Daesh was also a turning point, because with de-territorialization, Daesh had lost its claim on a caliphate and statehood. Therefore, in the near future, it has to restructure itself according to the new realities.
Turkey has been repeatedly emphasizing its determination to clear its border with Syria from terrorist elements. For this reason, Turkish officials have been trying to persuade their American counterparts to stop supporting the People's Protection Units (YPG)/Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and not to oppose its long-planned military operation.
During the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 17, two speeches grabbed the world's attention. The first one was by U.S. President Donald Trump, the other speech was delivered by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. These two speeches reflected two opposite political perspectives.
In recent days, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's remarks added a new twist to this mix. On the one hand, he is laying the groundwork for his upcoming address to the United Nations General Assembly, conveying messages to relevant world leaders. At the same time, Erdoğan is unveiling his new road map for party politics. Two topics, i.e. emerging political movements and the safe zone/refugee debate, have been around for some time. The third issue, Turkey's intention to obtain nuclear warheads, is new.
This chaotic period, which intensified or started with the Arab Spring insurgencies, has been deepening every other day..
Unilateralism and the arbitrary policies of global powers cause international conflicts, foreign interventions and political instability. Therefore, most global and regional powers have lost confidence in the international system, universal principles and the globalization process.
Turkey and the United States are setting up a joint operations center at Şanlıurfa in Turkey under a recent agreement. That U.S. European Command (EUCOM), as opposed to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), commanders are involved in negotiations reflects both sides' commitment to the deal.