Call for unity: Lessons from the past in Turkish politics
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent call to “consolidate the domestic front,” followed by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli’s support for the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) in pursuit of a “terror-free Türkiye” has naturally sparked discussions about future scenarios.
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Türkiye's political shift amidst terror attack on TUSAŞ
In the last week, a series of events has unfolded in Türkiye. First, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) chairman Devlet Bahçeli, one of the key partners of the People’s Alliance, made a surprise statement in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, demanding that PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan, who has been imprisoned in a high-security prison since 1999, call on the PKK to “lay down arms and end terrorism.” More interestingly, Bahçeli suggested that Öcalan should come to parliament and make this call from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) party’s platform. This development has led to interpretations that a new process may have begun.
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Speaking to reporters after last week’s Friday prayer, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan commented on his meeting with Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Özgür Özel, adding that he intended to visit the CHP headquarters soon: “This is what Türkiye and Turkish politics need. I wish to start a process of political softening in Türkiye by making that visit happen at the earliest convenience. We will take that step.”
The Good Party (IP) held an emergency congress on Sunday to replace its chairperson, Meral Akşener, with Müsavat Dervişoğlu.
The municipal election campaign of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been riddled with crises, and I am not talking about their various statements that have become the subject of controversy. For example, this is not about the CHP chairperson’s remarks about Turkish citizens who paid for their exemption from military service or Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s comments on housewives.
Following in the Good Party’s (IP) footsteps, the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), decided to field their own candidates, as opposed to joining an alliance, for the upcoming municipal election – an emerging trend that creates a political landscape where the "third-way" debate is expected to gain prominence anew.
Dynamics in Türkiye as local election looms
Local elections are scheduled to be held in Türkiye on March 31. Although local elections may not significantly shape the immediate future of the country, they hold the potential to trigger numerous political dynamics.
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CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics
With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.
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Following Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in the Turkish Parliament, the U.S. State Department notified Congress of a $23 billion (TL 698.52 billion) sale of fighter jets to Türkiye and an $8.6 billion sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Greece, another ally in the NATO. The sale to Türkiye includes 40 Lockheed Martin F-16s and equipment to modernize the existing fleet of 79 F-16s. Greece will receive 40 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and related equipment.
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
For a considerable period, Türkiye and Syria have engaged in discussions aimed at reshaping their bilateral relationship into a new framework. Most recently, a diplomatic meeting took place in Moscow in April involving foreign ministers from both countries, along with Russia and Iran. However, since April, the trajectory of these talks has become increasingly uncertain. This uncertainty has been shaped by the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, the divergent priorities of the external actors, the strategically ambiguous behavior of the Bashar Assad regime and the lack of capacity of the state of Syria. Other dynamics exist that make the talks between Türkiye and Syria more difficult to reach the real objectives of the negotiations process.
Hezbollah and the PKK use black market relations and criminal networks to receive huge amounts of easy money.
Russia wouldn't want to lose face in Tehran despite having bowed to Israeli pressures to limit their support for Bashar Assad and Hezbollah. Willing to do anything to weaken the Assad regime and Iran, Israel openly supports a federal solution.
