As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.

Twelve Turkish soldiers lost their lives earlier this week in an attack by the terrorist organization PKK in northern Iraq. I offer my condolences to their families and the nation.

With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election “freely” and “individually” encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.

Describing 2023 as a relatively quiet year for Turkish foreign policy would exclude the events of Oct. 7 and their aftermath. The trend of normalization, ongoing since the general elections in May, played a pivotal role in determining the overarching course of foreign policy. Despite unresolved issues, emphasis was placed on minimizing potential conflicts and prioritizing common interests. In the post-election period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a regional foreign policy centered on Gulf country relations, making the economy a primary focus. To mitigate security risks from Syria, ministerial-level talks with the Assad regime were initiated. Noteworthy strides were made in normalizing relations with Israel and Egypt. Erdoğan’s robust support for Azerbaijan in liberating Karabakh bolstered Türkiye’s status as a geopolitical player in 2023.

The municipal election campaign in Türkiye kicked off with a debate on alliances and cooperation. It seems that the People’s Alliance will campaign for the March 31, 2024 elections similarly to the 2019 and 2023 elections following a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairperson Devlet Bahçeli.

Amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, a tragic situation unfolds daily, with thousands of civilians losing their lives. This includes the merciless killing of babies and children, the murder of pregnant women and their unborn children, and the targeting of ambulances carrying wounded individuals. Hospitals, schools, and refugee camps have become the target of bombings, while essential services like water, fuel, electricity, and internet access are cut off.

As we rightfully experience this pride, we must be able to analyze the republic’s achievements and problems rationally so that Türkiye can move forward prosperously for centuries to come. That question takes us to the seemingly endless political and ideological debate over the republic’s structure.

Türkiye carried out airstrikes in Syria and Iraq last week in response to a terrorist attack against the Interior Ministry in Ankara. During that period, one statement and one picture attracted plenty of attention.

Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.

In light of the attempted terrorist attack on the General Directorate of Security in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Oct. 1 by the PKK terrorist organization, it is imperative to address the prevention of terrorist propaganda and strategic communication processes, in addition to security and intelligence matters. In the aftermath of a terrorist attack, not only do security institutions face a challenge, but society as a whole grapples with shock and uncertainty. While the standard operational procedures for security institutions and intelligence communities are quite clear, effectively deploying security and intelligence processes and implementing strategic communication to counteract immediate propaganda are intertwined. Responding swiftly to such incidents can impact not only immediate outcomes but also the long-term trajectory of national security and societal cohesion. Therefore, a crucial aspect that demands immediate attention after terrorist attacks is preventing terrorist propaganda. In this regard, the significance of strategic communication in preventing propaganda must be underscored.

Bilgehan Ozturk says cross-border strikes were already planned but the timing of operations are key for the national interests of Türkiye.

New geopolitical transformations are taking place in world politics as the inability of international organizations, starting with the United Nations, to promote peace and security encourages all countries to prepare for new solutions, cooperations and rivalries.

The Good Party (IP) Chairperson Meral Akşener continues to confront the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the “table for six.” Recalling that she “drank the hemlock” for Kılıçdaroğlu’s victory, she recently said that “there is no such thing as the Nation Alliance anymore” and that “the IP and CHP are rivals.”

The attempt by the Good Party (IP) chairperson, Meral Akşener, not to form any alliances for next year’s municipal elections continues to set the political agenda in Türkiye. The current situation does not just highlight the opposition’s ongoing crisis. It also reflects on the May 2023 coalition that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) spearheaded. That is why Akşener’s new discourse, on top of the CHP’s internal strife and "change" debate, remains the subject of a heated political debate.

Recent developments in Syria show that the dynamics caused by the civil war are still in effect as demonstrations against the Bashar Assad regime continue due to economic dissatisfaction and clashes between local Arab tribes and the PKK terrorist group’s Syrian presence YPG accelerate.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid an important visit to Iraq between Aug. 22-24. Iraq is one of the most strategic countries in the neighboring geography for Türkiye in terms of the fight against terrorism, energy geopolitics, economic relations, internal stability and rivalry between the countries in the region. Therefore, Fidan’s visit is quite critical before President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's expected visit to Iraq.

For a considerable period, Türkiye and Syria have engaged in discussions aimed at reshaping their bilateral relationship into a new framework. Most recently, a diplomatic meeting took place in Moscow in April involving foreign ministers from both countries, along with Russia and Iran. However, since April, the trajectory of these talks has become increasingly uncertain. This uncertainty has been shaped by the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, the divergent priorities of the external actors, the strategically ambiguous behavior of the Bashar Assad regime and the lack of capacity of the state of Syria. Other dynamics exist that make the talks between Türkiye and Syria more difficult to reach the real objectives of the negotiations process.