SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2025
This edition sheds light on Türkiye’s approach to mitigating economic constraints, strengthening defense exports, and leveraging diplomatic influence to shape the regional and global security order in 2025.
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Importance of US-Türkiye partnership in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war
In 2023, the number of conflicts worldwide increased to 59, the highest recorded since data collection began in 1946. US President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the November presidential election raised the possibility of ending at least some of these conflicts. Ending wars was a central commitment of Trump’s election campaign. Americans cast their votes for Trump because they do not want to spend their taxes in these endless wars anymore. While cutting financial aid to war-torn countries could help, the new US administration may need a more comprehensive approach. As Trump pursues his policy to end wars, he may need partners and facilitators to share the burden.
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Türkiye has been following an active regional policy since the eruption of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions. One of the main principles of Türkiye’s regional policy is the principle of “regional initiatives for regional problems.”
Türkiye, which sent troops to Somalia on Jan. 3, 1993, took a step toward establishing international peace and stability as part of the United Nations' Second Somalia Operation (UNOSOM II). This step opened the door to a new era in which Türkiye intervened in conflict areas in Somalia with diplomatic and humanitarian assistance. The visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was the prime minister at the time, to Somalia in 2011 was a turning point in Türkiye's approach to Somalia.
Türkiye is preparing for a paradigmatic shift in its Syria policy after the collapse of the Bashar Assad regime. Before Dec. 8, Türkiye’s approach to Syria centered on the fight against terrorism and the refugee problem.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited various countries on different continents in the last month to attend the summits of six regional and global international organizations.
Erdoğan’s strategic visit to the Balkans
Türkiye prioritizes stability and development in the Balkans by extending cooperation to all regional governments
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Diplomatic engagement instead of normalization
Recent developments have brought the ongoing discussions on normalizing Türkiye-Syria relations back to the forefront. Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, Syrian leader Bashar Assad, according to the Syrian News Agency, stated, “Syria is open to all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations based on its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country and the fight against terrorism and terrorist organizations.” Similarly, the Syrian News Agency quoted Lavrentiev as saying that Russia supports all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations, adding: “We see that the conditions for successful mediation are more favorable than ever. Russia is ready to work to advance the negotiations. The goal is to succeed in restoring relations between Syria and Türkiye.”
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This book examines the century-long transformation of Turkish foreign policy, with each chapter dedicated to analyzing different regions and explaining the priorities and strategies of Türkiye within the context of its historical transformation.
Southern Türkiye was jolted by twin earthquakes on February 6 that caused unprecedented devastation across an extremely vast area, impacting 11 provinces. Almost on par with the scale of the devastation, Türkiye has also received a huge amount of humanitarian aid from many countries with which Türkiye both has cordial and strained relations. In light of the considerable level of solidarity showcased by many countries, it is still unclear whether this atmosphere of solidarity and amicability will translate into tangible outcomes in the respective bilateral relations between Türkiye and these nations. Likewise, it is also unclear whether the solidarity displayed by countries with which Türkiye had tense relations until the earthquakes will cause a thaw in bilateral ties and lead to a new chapter in relations. We asked foreign policy experts to weigh in on these questions.
