Vilnius summit: Turning point in Türkiye-West relations?

Türkiye and its Western allies within the NATO alliance have been passing through a tense period due to the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian War that erupted in February 2022. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European countries close to Russia have perceived a threat from Moscow. Therefore, large-scale measures were taken by these countries and their allies in the West. Within this context, the NATO alliance and its enlargement policy have come to prominence.

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Vilnius summit Turning point in Türkiye-West relations
Türkiye's diplomatic activism and Vilnius summit

Türkiye's diplomatic activism and Vilnius summit

Türkiye gained the world’s attention yet again – this time, due to its diplomatic activism. Ten days before the grain deal’s expiry, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Istanbul. At the same time, diplomats and journalists continue to wonder whether Türkiye will approve Sweden’s NATO membership application ahead of the Vilnius Summit on July 11-12, 2023. Furthermore, Erdoğan is scheduled to visit the Gulf states on July 17-19 and host Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on July 27.

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Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”

This analysis will first address the factors that will determine the direction of Turkish foreign policy in the new era. It will then provide evaluations regarding a possible approach to its relations with the actors involved in the most important and prioritized issues of Turkish foreign policy, with a geographical perspective.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Azerbaijan earlier this week.

Since the restructuring of the state administration in the wake of the failed coup attempt in July 2016, Türkiye has been following a holistic foreign policy. Several significant changes were made to increase the effectiveness of Turkish foreign policy.

Erdogan's election victory: a new era in Turkish foreign policy

Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.

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Erdogan's election victory a new era in Turkish foreign policy
Türkiye elections Fate of second round lies within results

Türkiye elections: Fate of second round lies within results

Türkiye successfully held a historic election in line with democratic maturity. Governments around the world watched closely as 88.92% of eligible voters participated in the election and Turkish democracy proved its strength yet again. In the end, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan beat his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by almost 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, the People’s Alliance claimed 322 parliamentary seats – the majority – with 49.5%.

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Tens of millions of Turks went to the polls and cast their votes last Sunday to choose the next president and the 600-seat Parliament. Over 30 political parties and five multiparty political coalitions (the People’s Alliance, the Nation Alliance, the ATA Alliance, the Labor and Freedom Alliance, and the Union of Socialist Forces Alliance) competed in the elections. At first, there were four official candidates, namely, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Sinan Oğan and Muharrem Ince. However, after the withdrawal of Ince, only three of them competed for the Presidency.

We experienced another historic night on May 14. The number of votes President Erdoğan received, surpassing 27 million, represents the highest vote count ever recorded. Despite the theories that 5 million new voters would be a handicap for him, the sense of "enough is enough" among the electorate would help secure victory for the opposition, and the economic problems would guarantee a change in power, we saw that these claims did not materialize in the results. The problems among the opposition, their inability to offer a clear message despite the formulation of a joint program, and the difficulties faced by candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in persuading large masses determined the fate of the election. Thanks to the strong psychological advantage brought by the first round, Erdogan will secure a greater proportional advantage and win in the second round.

The election campaign has finally boiled down to a debate over the “real” nationalists. It is hardly surprising that nationalism, which has been on the rise globally since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s term, remains critically important in Türkiye – which continues to combat terrorists.

What international media have dubbed “the world’s most important election in 2023” is less than a week away. Whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins will have wide-ranging implications.

The AK Party years in Türkiye have been truly transformational. When the party was established in 2001, the country was going through major economic and political crises. Today, under the leadership of President Erdoğan, Türkiye is a middle power with serious global ambitions. In the nearly two decades since its inception, the AK Party has been confronted with major domestic and foreign policy challenges. At home, major improvements in religious freedoms, ethnic relations, and cultural rights have been realized. Abroad, Türkiye has emerged as a major power to reckon with in the region while playing a role as a critical partner in global issues. From tackling the Kurdish issue to daring to take on authoritarian regimes during the Arab Spring, the AK Party under President Erdoğan’s leadership has already left the most significant mark on Turkish modern political history. This volume addresses the domestic and foreign policy transformations in Türkiye that took place over the course of the past two decades under the AK Party

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the specific and singular foreign policy topics and files, as well as the paradigms guiding the foreign policy preferences of both alliances on a macro level.

It is necessary to uphold the sense of solidarity, which emerged among states after the earthquakes. Last but not least, one would hope that the humane way of thinking can triumph over the idea of interest and exploitation in international relations. This is a time to focus on moral values and solidarity – not realpolitik.

Natural disasters, wars, and economic collapse tend to seriously undermine social order and make it impossible to address even people’s most basic needs. During such periods, it becomes difficult for communities to feed themselves, find shelter, receive medical attention, relocate, and communicate with others. Individuals and communities have provided emergency assistance to such individuals, without expecting anything in return, to address basic needs like food, shelter, and medical treatment throughout history.

Southern Türkiye was jolted by twin earthquakes on February 6 that caused unprecedented devastation across an extremely vast area, impacting 11 provinces. Almost on par with the scale of the devastation, Türkiye has also received a huge amount of humanitarian aid from many countries with which Türkiye both has cordial and strained relations. In light of the considerable level of solidarity showcased by many countries, it is still unclear whether this atmosphere of solidarity and amicability will translate into tangible outcomes in the respective bilateral relations between Türkiye and these nations. Likewise, it is also unclear whether the solidarity displayed by countries with which Türkiye had tense relations until the earthquakes will cause a thaw in bilateral ties and lead to a new chapter in relations. We asked foreign policy experts to weigh in on these questions.

As the recent natural disaster activates ties with Türkiye, it is necessary to use 'earthquake diplomacy' to reduce tensions and improve bilateral relations

In the aftermath of the twin quakes in Türkiye, we see that some states are trying to help beyond their capacities, while others are a little below par

Although Türkiye has had significant problems with NATO, the U.S., and the Western alliance in general in recent years, receiving serious humanitarian aid support during the 6 February earthquakes can be seen as a strong first step. However, the continuation of this and providing comprehensive and permanent support to Türkiye's rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance. If Türkiye feels left alone in this matter in the medium and long term, it will be difficult to solve the priority problems in Turkish-American and Türkiye-Western relations. This will be a handicap in ensuring regional stability.

Türkiye’s rebuilding process, which may take at least a few years, will also be critical for the internal solidarity of the Western alliance.