After escalation in Idlib, what’s next for Turkey-Russia relations?

The Turkish-Russian ceasefire in Syria has run its course, setting the stage for confrontation between Ankara and Moscow if a new buffer to smoothen tensions isn’t achieved.

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After escalation in Idlib what s next for Turkey-Russia relations
Turkey's foreign policy normalization and Syria

Turkey's foreign policy normalization and Syria

Normalization is not an emotional decision to “get along with everyone.” Nor does it occur at one side’s request. It goes without saying that all states revisit their policy choices with an eye on emerging geopolitical trends. They make calculations and make new choices if necessary. That, too, is the driving force behind the pursuit of normalization by regional powers, including Turkey.

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What Turkey’s political elite needs to do, instead, is set aside the myths and join forces to mount pressure on Europe regarding asylum-seekers.

The main focus of the politicians, academicians, researchers and intellectuals in the United States has been China for the last several decades as Americans believe China has the biggest potential to challenge the American hegemony. Publishing houses have been publishing books and academic journals have been covering research articles about China, a country that widely remains a mystery for most Americans; therefore, they closely follow developments about China to track not only political, military and economic developments but also its scientific and technological potential. In other words, there has been an increasing polarization between the U.S. and China, which has further accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic.

As the world learns to live with the new normal in the post-pandemic period, all the ancient wars of words in Turkey’s political arena are already back. For days, the Turkish people have been talking about subtle hints from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) about a military coup, hate speech on social media, the future of political alliances and the prospect of newly established parties signing parliamentarians "on loan."

Turkey has been the main supporter of the Syrian opposition fighting the Bashar Assad regime. Ankara has also diligently protected innocent Syrian civilians living in the Idlib region. It has stood against the atrocities, the Assad regime attacks and the regime's main backers Russia and Iran. On one hand, Turkey has mobilized its deterrent military power in the region against the regime’s future attacks; on the other hand, Turkish officials and civil institutions initiated a campaign to provide food and shelter for civilians. Western countries have been reluctant to get involved in the humanitarian tragedy and security problem in the region.

Idlib crisis: Turkey’s deterrent power, Europe's reluctance

It is distressing to witness the lack of European concern about the humanitarian disaster in Idlib and how Turkey has been abandoned in its fight for civilian safety

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Idlib crisis Turkey s deterrent power Europe's reluctance
Is Sochi 2 0 possible

Is Sochi 2.0 possible?

The deadline for Bashar Assad’s retreat from Idlib has passed. Turkey remains committed to the Sochi agreement..

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By the end of February, Turkey expects Bashar Assad to withdraw to the agreed-upon cease-fire line stipulated in the Sochi agreement. Yet, nothing has come out of diplomatic negotiations between Ankara and Moscow.

The Syrian crisis is one of the best examples of this approach. The Bashar Assad regime has killed more than half a million innocent civilians by using prohibited weapons of mass destruction, including barrel bombs and chemical weapons..

The recent escalation of tensions around Idlib which have developed in response to coordinated attacks by the Syrian regime and Russia have put the pledges of the Astana and Sochi peace processes under a heavy strain..

The Syrian civil war has always had great potential to worsen any day. Since May 2019, the Bashar Assad regime has been pummeling the Syrian opposition's last holdout in the northwestern province of Idlib.

Long-standing tension between Turkey and the Bashar Assad regime just turned into a hot conflict. At this rate, everything else will take a backseat to military operations. The critical question is whether Turkey has moved to the "second" stage in Idlib – holding territory, reinforcing observation posts and exercising control around them, and enforcing a safe zone, 30-40 kilometers deep, for Syrian refugees and displaced persons.

Miscalculated steps in foreign policy have already changed the U.S.' image as one of the most 'concerned' world powers

With its anti-terror operations, Turkey thwarts emergence of terror corridor near its borders, says think-tank chief

Turkey pledges not to change its humanitarian priorities in the region and continues to stand against the self-serving approaches of other actors

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump has contributed positively to bilateral relations. Their commitment to working together and continue negotiations was one of the meeting's concrete outcomes.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump went exactly as expected. It was a very successful meeting in symbolic terms, allowing the two countries to reaffirm their commitment to working together, mend their strained relationship and keep negotiating. Turkish and U.S. officials found an opportunity to listen to each other at length.

There were too many controversial issues on the table in President Erdoğan’s recent visit to Washington and the meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Washington's continuing support for the People's Protection Units (YPG); the S-400 missiles; the situation with the F-35 fighter jets; Washington’s policy on the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) and other sanction bills against Turkey are urgent issues for Turkey that need to be tackled constructively by the American authorities. Only a reset in Turkish-American relations can assure a significant change, but the circumstances are not conducive to a reset. For the moment the Democratic Union Party (PYD) issue seems to be the biggest problem leading to constant tensions between the two countries.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, November 13. Kadir Ustun, Executive Director at SETA Foundation DC, discusses Erdogan-Trump summit, what President Erdogan has achieved in this visit.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in Washington, D.C. today for a highly anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. There are many issues on the two leaders' agenda, including Turkey's procurement of the Russian S-400 air defense system, Washington's relationship with the PKK terrorist organization's Syrian branch and the fight against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ).