Türkiye’s foreign policy has been gaining momentum in recent months as a series of developments bolster each other, taking place in quick succession.

Speaking for the first time after Sunday's presidential election, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to a question about the possibility of a violent conflict between Russia and the West by describing the current situation as above. Stressing that "everything is possible in the modern world," he argued that, "It will be one step away from a full-scale third world war, but hardly anyone is interested in this." Putin had warned before the election that his country was "technically ready for nuclear war."

Over the weekend, I had the opportunity to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The forum addressed numerous issues concerning Türkiye's foreign policy priorities, with a particular focus on the reconstruction of the international system in an era of regional instability and global challenges. The theme of rebuilding the international system in the post-World War II era, based on 'rule-based' principles established by the United States, stood out as a central topic. However, it's evident that this system has failed to effectively address problems or maintain stability in today's world. Amidst discussions highlighting this fundamental issue, it was clear that Türkiye is seeking grounded leadership through realistic assessments of diplomacy's possibilities and limitations.

I attended the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Friday. Bringing together politicians, diplomats, academics, journalists and think tankers from 147 countries, the event has already claimed a respectable place among the world’s leading platforms.

The current international system, which was already quite vulnerable, has totally collapsed after Israel's genocidal policies and the unconditional support of Western governments for the ongoing genocide committed by Israel. Despite the intensifying global rivalry, there was still some hope for the consolidation of the norms-based international system. At least, many states have declared their determination to take effective measures against the rising unconventional global threats such as climate change, environmental problems, irregular and illegal migration, food and water shortage, drought, failed states, cyber threats and violent nonstate actors.

The Biden administration announced sanctions against Russia involving five hundred new entities and individuals following the death of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The news of Navalny's death (or killing) in prison, coinciding with the second anniversary of the Ukraine war, came at a time when the American Congress failed to pass a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. President Biden met with Navalny's wife and daughter and harshly criticized Russian President Putin for Navalny's death. Biden had previously threatened repercussions if anything happened to Navalny. While Biden's decision to refrain from seizing Russia's $300 billion in Western banks suggests he's not ready for a full-scale confrontation with Putin, his announcement of new sanctions indicates a path of accountability.

The world was not in good shape on the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A quick look at the most recent developments alone would suffice to appreciate that we are entering a period of fragmentation and high risks.

Russia-Ukraine War | A Two-Year Review

The debate on Turkish foreign policy's "axis," "strategic autonomy" and "normalization" policy was recently revived by Parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO membership, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Cairo trip and Türkiye joining the European Sky Shield Initiative.

In an opinion piece published in The Washington Post, a call was made for the United States to start discussing the truth about Israel's nuclear capacity. The piece, signed by expert names in the issue of nuclear weapon proliferation, notes that American government officials have been following a policy of denying Israel's nuclear weapons' existence due to a secret presidential order in effect for 60 years. Experts argue that this policy has become increasingly meaningless, especially as Israeli politicians are making nuclear weapon use threats in Gaza, and it impedes America's ability to effectively handle regional conflict scenarios. While this kind of call is not new, such debates indicate a changing perception of Israel within the American public and a questioning of America's Israel policy.

Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as “obsolete” and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.

The remarks made by Trump, who is widely expected to run for president as the Republican Party candidate, regarding NATO once again underscored how fragile America's claim to global leadership is. Trump threatened to pressure certain NATO member countries to increase their military spending or face consequences. By stating that Russia could do whatever it wants with these countries, Trump escalated his anti-NATO rhetoric to new heights during his presidency. Trump's longstanding questioning of the concept of collective defense by the United States and his failure to protect a NATO member country practically spells the end of this military alliance. The loss of the deterrent effect of NATO's Article 5-based collective defense concept would not only undermine the alliance's guarantees but also signify the end of America's leadership within the Western alliance. As America engages in a global power struggle with Russia and China, it will become increasingly difficult for the country to conduct this struggle within the Western alliance without establishing unity.

An interview and a speech from last week rang alarm bells regarding the fate of world politics. The two-hour interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin was conducted by the American journalist Tucker Carlson, while the speech was delivered at the United Nations General Assembly by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and concluded that the world had entered an “age of chaos.”

Some analysts think ‘it’s too early’ to say all disputes will be resolved while others say two NATO allies still maintain ‘positive strategic relationship’

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits the Middle East this weekend for the fifth time since the Oct. 7 attack.

Following Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in the Turkish Parliament, the U.S. State Department notified Congress of a $23 billion (TL 698.52 billion) sale of fighter jets to Türkiye and an $8.6 billion sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets to Greece, another ally in the NATO. The sale to Türkiye includes 40 Lockheed Martin F-16s and equipment to modernize the existing fleet of 79 F-16s. Greece will receive 40 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters and related equipment.