Highlights from G-20 India and Erdoğan's diplomatic traffic

The G-20 Summit in New Delhi, India – whose main theme was “One Earth, One Family, One Future” – was the focal point of diplomacy last week. Notably missing Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Summit could not have produced a joint declaration for the first time.

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Highlights from G-20 India and Erdoğan's diplomatic traffic
Western misperception of Türkiye

Western misperception of Türkiye

Türkiye has been facing many vital challenges since the end of the Cold War, especially in the last decade. Türkiye tried to overcome these challenges together with its allies. There was a high level of cooperation between Ankara and its Western allies during the first decade of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments.

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Successfully managing the risk of a confrontation in Syria, the two leaders strengthened their cooperation in a broad range of areas, including energy, tourism and defense. As the bilateral trade volume reached $69 billion, the two nations set a new target of $100 billion. Against the backdrop of the construction of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, there are ongoing talks over the possibility of building another plant in Sinop.

BRICS was established as an economic bloc by the fastest-growing countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. BRICS has positioned itself as an economic bloc and an alternative to the G-7, the economic bloc of the most advanced countries, since the first summit held in 2009. While the G-7 represents the advanced Western world and the North, BRICS represents the non-Western world and the Global South.

The candidates competing to clinch the Republican Party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election faced the voters in the first debate of the primary season on Wednesday night. Former President Trump, who is significantly ahead in public opinion polls, did not participate in the debate, allowing the other candidates to vie for attention. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Representative Nikki Haley delivered standout performances in the debate, where Trump's influence was felt on almost every issue. Although these two candidates had served in the Trump administration, they refrained from directly criticizing the former president, even though they garnered applause from the audience, many of whom had paid to attend.

For a considerable period, Türkiye and Syria have engaged in discussions aimed at reshaping their bilateral relationship into a new framework. Most recently, a diplomatic meeting took place in Moscow in April involving foreign ministers from both countries, along with Russia and Iran. However, since April, the trajectory of these talks has become increasingly uncertain. This uncertainty has been shaped by the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, the divergent priorities of the external actors, the strategically ambiguous behavior of the Bashar Assad regime and the lack of capacity of the state of Syria. Other dynamics exist that make the talks between Türkiye and Syria more difficult to reach the real objectives of the negotiations process.

How Wagner’s Mutiny Will Affect African Politics

After Wagner's mutiny, Russia, which had consolidated its presence in Africa through Wagner, will have to revise its Africa policy.

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How Wagner s Mutiny Will Affect African Politics

The world is changing, just as once visualized by the Lord of the Rings author J.R.R. Tolkien. Financial systems, payment systems, and transfers are all going digital. Cash usage is in decline all over the world. As an additional (but totally new generation) payment choice, central bank digital currency (CBDC) is the future of money and payment systems.

The grain corridor has resurfaced on the global agenda as a sort of ideological fight. On July 17, Russia announced it would not extend that agreement, which was signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts. Specifically, Moscow says it won’t honor the agreement unless sanctions targeting Russian fertilizer companies are lifted.

Western countries, including politicians, business circles, academia and media, have been insistently and deliberately otherizing and alienating Islam and Muslims for the last three decades. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the communist threat, influential Western circles began to consider Islam and Muslims the main threat to the Western-dominated world hegemony.

Ukraine | Journey of War for Just Peace

Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal continues to capture the global media’s attention as that decision disproportionately hurts African nations. Having hosted 17 African heads of state and government last week, the Kremlin used the discourse of “opposing new Western colonialism together” at the Russia-Africa Summit – where Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged free grains to Africa.

Russia declaring the end of the grain agreement, the Prigozhin uprising, and the post-Vilnius Summit show that it wants the cards to be reshuffled. The Prigozhin uprising exposed weaknesses and rifts in the Russian military, resulting in a loss of political reputation for Putin. It has become clear that Russia cannot achieve a clear victory on the front lines in the near future. However, the slow progress of its counteroffensive indicates that Ukraine also cannot achieve a quick resolution. This balance situation indicates that the war could potentially extend over years, unless Putin makes a sudden decision to withdraw. It is known that the Russian military faces significant manpower and logistical challenges. In this scenario where military superiority is not attainable, we observe the use of asymmetric advantages such as the cancellation of the grain agreement.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned the question of Sweden’s NATO membership into an opportunity to start a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the West. Having hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Istanbul ahead of the Vilnius summit and stating that Ukraine deserved to join the alliance, Erdoğan brought up the need to remove obstacles before his country’s European Union membership.

It cannot be said that the efforts of Turkish foreign policy to open up space for itself through pragmatic steps in line with regional and global balances are adequately understood. Analyzes that depict Türkiye as "breaking away" from the Western alliance are based on the misconception that Türkiye cannot rationally determine its national interests and act accordingly. When every relationship President Erdogan develops beyond the Transatlantic alliance is presented as either an alternative to the West or a distancing from the West, unfounded prejudices about Türkiye's foreign policy emerge. As analyses of Türkiye are reduced to variations of the perception of a country caught between the West and the East, constantly experiencing ebb and flow, problematic perspectives on Turkish foreign policy become widespread. Unless it is based on the assumption that Türkiye has legitimate national interests and priorities, these analyses lose their ability to provide a profound explanation.

The Vilnius Summit is taking place at a time when the NATO alliance is beginning to overcome the strategic ambiguity it has experienced since the Cold War. Following the United States' declaration of a "war on global terrorism" after the September 11 attacks, NATO became involved in Afghanistan, but the alliance was unable to develop a strategy that aligned with the changing international security system. NATO's 2010 Strategic Concept document mentioned cooperation with Russia but made no reference to the threat posed by China. Failing to provide a strong response to the annexation of Crimea, the alliance suddenly found itself facing the risk of nuclear war in Europe with Russia's attempted occupation of Ukraine. This development served as a reminder of NATO's core mission and highlighted the need for a complete reassessment of Europe's security. The alliance attempted to present a comprehensive vision against Russia, China, and other global threats in its 2022 Strategic Concept document.

Türkiye and its Western allies within the NATO alliance have been passing through a tense period due to the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian War that erupted in February 2022. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European countries close to Russia have perceived a threat from Moscow. Therefore, large-scale measures were taken by these countries and their allies in the West. Within this context, the NATO alliance and its enlargement policy have come to prominence.

The preliminary injunction issued by a federal judge in the lawsuit brought by the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri against the Biden administration has sparked a new debate on freedom of speech. The attorneys general claim that the White House is colluding with social media platform executives to suppress conservative voices, alleging a violation of the constitutionally guaranteed freedom of expression. The plaintiffs, who argue that the judge's injunction is a preliminary victory in the case, anticipate that the final decision and appeals will likely reach the Supreme Court. This process signals a further escalation of the social media and freedom of speech debate in the coming period.

Last weekend's historic events in Russia have sparked discussions on the role and preferences of the United States and its allies. The main motivation of Prigozhin, one of Putin's closest associates, was to preserve the power and autonomy of Wagner. However, there have been frequent speculations that he may have been "encouraged" by the West. Putin accuses Prigozhin of betraying him, while the Kremlin suggests the involvement of "external forces." It is worth noting that these comments and insinuations are politically driven and difficult to substantiate. However, an important question arises regarding whether American policy seeks Putin's removal from power. Given the strained relationship with the West due to the Ukraine occupation and the economic costs faced by Moscow, it can be argued that they may prefer a weakened Russia at the negotiating table rather than pushing it into chaos.

On June 23, 2023, the world experienced a great surprise when the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, revolted against the Russian government. Seemingly, the revolt arose due to increasing tension between the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Defense Ministry, especially Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.