It was Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who said that a hurricane was brewing in the West. He made that remark in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País where he accused Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, of assuming a completely pro-Israel stance. Recalling that the EU’s policy toward the Russo-Ukrainian war and Israel’s massacres in Gaza came with a hefty price tag, Borrell predicts a hurricane in the West, warning against the approaching “circle of violence” – a reference to Dante’s Inferno – and urging Europe to wake up. It is no secret that some circles within the European Union have been unhappy with Ursula von der Leyen’s unconditional support to Israel. Indeed, the German politician has already been called “Frau Genocide.” Although Israel stands accused of genocide before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), what is possibly more significant is that Western societies react more and more strongly to the United States and the EU for failing to speak up against the bloodshed in Gaza. For example, the American youth already believes that Israel subjects the Palestinian people to genocide. In light of the above, Josep Borrell is absolutely right to warn against a “hurricane” in the West – including Europe. The Russo-Ukrainian war undermined Europe’s security architecture. The continental elites remain perplexed, yet fully aware that they will have to deal with the Russian threat for the next couple of decades. The gap between the Atlanticists (who believe in relying on the United States and NATO) and their critics, who say that Europe will eventually have to help itself, keeps widening. Likewise, the French idea of “strategic autonomy” and the perspective of Germany, which appeals to the Eastern Europeans through the European Sky Shield Initiative, are not perfectly aligned.

Option to arm

Either way, the European elites believe that they have no choice but to arm themselves over the next decade – as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and the German chief of defense, Carsten Breuer, have recently noted. Disbalanced by the coronavirus pandemic, the international system witnessed the rise of great power competition due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. While millions of Ukrainians became refugees overnight, there is reason to believe that the war could rage on for many years. Russia won’t lose the war but it cannot be allowed to win either. As expected, that conflict created various power vacuums where violence will spread. Indeed, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which started after the Oct. 7 attack, serves as a reminder that frozen or low-intensity conflicts in many parts of the world could easily give way to massacres. The cease-fire talks remain underway, but Benjamin Netanyahu’s government seems hell-bent on conducting military operations in Rafah. For the record, the Western governments are not happy with Israel’s policy – which fuels instability in the Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, the Biden administration appreciates that failure to stop Netanyahu ahead of the November 2024 presidential election comes with a price. Yet, the prominent Israel lobby in the U.S. ensures the silence of most politicians. Although anti-Israel protests take place frequently in the West, we do not witness the same level of activity in Middle Eastern societies. Is it safe to assume that they do not care about the massacres in Gaza? The answer is obviously no. What we witness today is a dangerous calm that resembles the prelude to the Arab revolts. If Israel ends up trying to kill some 1.5 million Palestinians in Rafah, uprisings and conflicts could flare up and put many Arab countries in a difficult position. Let us recall that the political regimes in the region are much more fragile than their European counterparts. Josep Borrell warns against a hurricane, but we do not know whether a more devastating hurricane won’t hit the Middle East. [Daily Sabah, March 3, 2024]