Cease-fire in Lebanon: Catalyst for regional shifts?
After approximately 14 months of conflict, a cease-fire between Israeli and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Nov. 27. Mediated by the United States and France, the cease-fire is fundamentally based on the revival of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. According to this agreement, Hezbollah forces will withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli forces will retreat south of the Blue Line. This process is expected to be completed within 60 days.
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Israel's perpetual war strategy after October 7
A full year ago this week, I was in Ankara for a meeting. When Hamas launched its attacks on October 7, the Palestinian issue quickly became the main agenda. It became evident that Israel was facing significant security vulnerabilities, and there was much discussion about the timing of Hamas's actions. There was a consensus that Israel would respond disproportionately. It was clear that the conflict between Israel and Hamas was entering a new phase, and discussions were underway about the steps needed for a political resolution after the conflict. Looking back a year later, it’s hard to believe that no one expected Israel to shift into a "perpetual war" mode by rendering Gaza unlivable and extending the conflict to other countries.
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In the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood, the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation against the Gaza Strip. The asymmetric and intense military attacks ended up with genocide. So far, Israel has killed more than 42.000 Palestinians, most of which are innocent children and women, wounded more than 90,000 and displaced more than 2 million people. Israeli security forces hit civilian residential areas, including schools, hospitals, ambulances, mosques, churches, tents, refugee camps and the U.N. centers. Eventually, Israeli forces destroyed almost all of the Gaza Strip. With the unconditional support of Western countries such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, Israel violated all principles of international humanitarian law in front of the world.
Conference: One Year After Israel’s Gaza Genocide and Its Regional Effects
President Erdoğan dedicating a significant portion of his UN speech to Gaza highlighted not only the importance of the Palestinian issue for Türkiye but also its central role in regional peace and global governance. The moral clarity and call to action on this matter, which has been a recurring theme in Erdoğan’s past speeches, carried considerable weight. The UN, established to ensure international peace and security, has been paralyzed in addressing the Palestinian issue due to its structural problems and inability to move beyond great power rivalries, illustrating the crisis of the international order. Türkiye’s insistence on keeping the Palestinian issue on the global agenda is crucial for its national interests, regional balance, and the future of the international system.
In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.
Is Iran strengthening or becoming isolated?
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
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Is Middle East entering new spiral of conflicts?
A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
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The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”
It is clear that Tel Aviv, which never again wants to see a similar attack to that of October 7, does not care about international reactions. A possible ground operation in Gaza, the opening of a new front by Hezbollah, new attacks in Syria, and further developments in the West Bank are among the hot topics on the current agenda. Our region may experience the horrific repercussions of ambitious deterrence.
