Israel's cyber-attacks spark a regional war, threatening stability and drawing in global powers

This study argues that the problems between Erbil and Baghdad, and their prolonged existence prevent Türkiye from deepening cooperation with Iraq in terms of security, water issues, and economic relations

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent visit to Iraq could mark the beginning of a new chapter in the longstanding relationship between Türkiye and Iraq. During his visit to Baghdad, Türkiye and Iraq signed a strategic framework agreement that addresses a variety of issues, ranging from security to economic cooperation. This agreement represents the culmination of nearly a year of productive high-level discussions between the two countries. Furthermore, President Erdoğan’s first visit to Iraq since 2011 has established new connections between Türkiye, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, enhancing the region’s geo-economic landscape.

Under the strategic framework agreement for joint cooperation, which the two countries inked in Baghdad, their bilateral relations have been elevated to the level of strategic partnership with a “qualitative leap.” The Turkish and Iraqi governments created a road map for future cooperation. Their commitment to solving problems and elevating their cooperation to the highest level rests on the “win-win” principle. Accordingly, the Turkish delegation, which included eight Cabinet ministers, focused on a broad range of issues, including counterterrorism, cross-border waters, security, the defense industry, trade, health care, communication, education, energy and transportation.

Türkiye and Iraq issued a joint statement following last week’s security summit in Baghdad, marking the beginning of a new chapter in bilateral relations.

The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.

Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.

Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.

A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.

The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”

Russia wouldn't want to lose face in Tehran despite having bowed to Israeli pressures to limit their support for Bashar Assad and Hezbollah. Willing to do anything to weaken the Assad regime and Iran, Israel openly supports a federal solution.