During a recent diplomatic engagement, Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan underscored Türkiye’s commitment to fostering a regional counterterrorism framework independent of global hegemonic influence during his visit to Baghdad. Subsequent statements from Fidan revealed that a preliminary agreement had been reached for a joint cooperation mechanism involving Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Türkiye. The inaugural meeting of this quadrilateral alliance, initially centered on combating Daesh, is set to convene in Jordan with the participation of high-ranking officials, including the ministers of Foreign Affairs and National Defense, alongside the National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
By championing a regional initiative, Türkiye aims to establish an autonomous problem-solving mechanism, thereby expanding its diplomatic latitude while diminishing the reliance on external actors. This approach aligns with the broader geopolitical recalibration observed among key regional states – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye – toward prioritizing endogenous stability and strategic autonomy.
Daesh imperative
The deliberate prioritization of Daesh as the initial focal point of this alliance is no coincidence but a meticulously calculated strategy. While Daesh’s operational presence in Syria has waned in critical zones such as the Badiya Desert and Deir el-Zour, it retains mobility in southern Deir el-Zour and Hasakah – regions forming a vital transit corridor between Iraq and Syria. Intelligence assessments indicate a concentrated terrorist presence near the Iraqi border, highlighting the potential resurgence of the terrorist group. Furthermore, Daesh continues its assault on Syria’s oil infrastructure, aiming to disrupt governance mechanisms, induce economic destabilization and replenish its financial resources.
In Iraq, Daesh has adopted a strategic recalibration, favoring lower-frequency but high-impact operations. This tactical shift underscores the group’s enduring operational capacity despite a reduced public footprint. The evolving security dynamics in both Iraq and Syria suggest that Daesh is not in retreat but rather consolidating its forces for future offensives, thereby persisting as a latent yet formidable threat.
Elimination of PKK/YPG
Consequently, the shared objective of countering Daesh serves as a unifying force for Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Türkiye, providing a common strategic imperative that underpins the alliance. Moreover, this regional initiative holds the potential to alleviate the financial burden borne by the international coalition, effectively undermining the rationale for continued U.S. military entrenchment in Syria. Should this framework succeed, it could facilitate the long-elusive withdrawal that U.S. President Donald Trump had advocated but was unable to implement due to institutional resistance. A potential U.S. military disengagement would, in turn, recalibrate the regional balance of power, diminishing the strategic leverage of actors such as Israel and the PKK/YPG, both of whom have lobbied for sustained American involvement in the region.
Türkiye’s longstanding efforts to neutralize the PKK/YPG and its affiliated entities have yielded tangible results, particularly through enhanced security coordination with Iraq’s central government. However, the persistent PKK entrenchment in Sinjar and disputed territories remains a challenge. Despite this, the outlawing of PKK-affiliated groups has significantly eroded the organization's political influence. Concurrently, Daesh sleeper cells continue to pose a latent threat in Iraq’s Anbar and Mosul provinces. The elimination of these nonstate armed actors is paramount for Iraq’s internal security, the restoration of public order and the attraction of foreign investment, which hinges on the establishment of a stable governance environment.
Calculations of Syria, Jordan
From Syria’s perspective, the consolidation of political legitimacy necessitates demonstrable governance efficacy, particularly in addressing security threats that imperil public order. A cooperative security framework led by Türkiye would not only provide Syria with indispensable military and intelligence support but also curtail the influence of extra-regional actors over its internal affairs. This alignment would enhance Syria’s bargaining position vis-a-vis the PKK/YPG, potentially expediting a resolution to longstanding territorial and security disputes.
The PKK/YPG is experiencing growing strain as a result of the U.S.' decision to halt financial assistance and outline a withdrawal strategy from Syria, significantly reducing the YPG’s authority and economic resilience. This development follows recent clashes with the Türkiye-supported Syrian National Army (SNA) and ongoing discussions between the YPG and the Syrian government. The cessation of U.S. aid has disrupted various sectors, particularly in YPG-administered territories, where humanitarian efforts have been suspended, worsening conditions in displacement camps such as al-Hol and al-Roj. Confronted with financial and diplomatic challenges, the YPG is being pushed toward more comprehensive negotiations with Damascus. Predictably, this scenario will hasten the YPG’s integration into Syria’s state institutions, potentially requiring compromises on resource control, border security and regional administration. Furthermore, losing critical leverage, including authority over Daesh prisoners and refugee camps, diminishes the YPG’s negotiating strength, making reconciliation with Damascus increasingly inevitable.
Recently, a prominent YPG commander revealed that the YPG, along with the "Syrian Democratic Council" ("MSD") and the so-called Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), has agreed to incorporate its security apparatus into the Syrian army, marking a step toward rapprochement. The agreement involves restoring government service institutions, enhancing living standards and fostering closer ties with the Damascus administration. Additionally, eliminating foreign fighters from YPG forces and facilitating the return of displaced individuals have been designated as priorities. This decision reflects an attempt to reinforce stability and consolidate Syria under the newly established leadership of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The YPG’s so-called leader, Mazloum Abdi, has signaled readiness to coordinate security transfers and expel foreign fighters, demonstrating a growing inclination to meet Damascus’ conditions. While complete integration remains under discussion, the overall trend suggests that the YPG is increasingly pressured to accept a unified national framework due to shifting regional and global dynamics.
For Jordan, ensuring border security is of paramount importance. As a front-line state directly affected by Daesh’s cross-border activities, Jordan stands to benefit significantly from this multilateral security cooperation. The alliance could also mitigate the risk of renewed refugee inflows stemming from potential instability in Syria. Additionally, Jordan’s participation serves to neutralize adversarial narratives suggesting that “Türkiye exploits the Daesh threat as a pretext for targeting Kurdish groups.”
Broader security architecture
Although the operational details of this alliance remain fluid, it is evident that its scope will extend beyond the containment of Daesh. A broader strategic alignment will likely foster collaboration on multiple security concerns. While the Syrian administration has yet to initiate direct confrontations with the YPG, ongoing negotiations indicate a complex political calculus. The potential cessation of U.S. support for the YPG, the transfer of Daesh detainees held in YPG-controlled facilities, the reintegration of Arab-majority territories into the Syrian state structure, and the consolidation of Syria’s unitary governance model all represent critical considerations for the evolving security landscape. By institutionalizing coordination, this quadrilateral framework could significantly curtail the YPG’s ability to leverage Daesh detainees as a bargaining tool, thereby fortifying Syria’s negotiating position and paving the way for a sustainable resolution.
The proposed quadrilateral cooperation model represents an ambitious attempt to institutionalize a regional security framework with far-reaching implications. Whether this initiative will materialize into a durable mechanism remains contingent on its implementation, operational scope, and adaptability to emerging challenges. As developments unfold, the trajectory of this alliance will be a critical subject for close observation, with potential repercussions extending beyond the immediate theater of the Middle East.
