Shifting power dynamics in Syria: Assad regime and allies face major setbacks

The Middle Eastern developments continue to set the agenda of international politics. The Al-Aqsa Flood has become a turning point for the whole region. The ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people and the Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of regional countries, directly and indirectly, influence all regional dynamics. Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian proxies in Syria have dramatically changed the Syrian context as well. As a result of the shifted regional balance of power, the opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a military operation against Syria's Bashar Assad regime on Nov. 27.

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Shifting power dynamics in Syria Assad regime and allies face
War unfolds in the Middle East

War unfolds in the Middle East

Israel's cyber-attacks spark a regional war, threatening stability and drawing in global powers

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The Middle East region has been in political instability since the eruption of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions in 2011...

The recent normalization of Türkiye-Egypt relations has led to noteworthy improvements between the two countries. It is highly likely that bilateral relations and all regional issues will be thoroughly discussed during Sisi’s current visit to Türkiye. Within this context, potential cooperation on regional matters, including the tensions in the Horn of Africa, will likely be addressed. In this regard, Somalia emerges as the most prominent country.

Türkiye’s foreign policy has been gaining momentum in recent months as a series of developments bolster each other, taking place in quick succession.

The debate on Turkish foreign policy's "axis," "strategic autonomy" and "normalization" policy was recently revived by Parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO membership, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Cairo trip and Türkiye joining the European Sky Shield Initiative.

Who benefits from controlled proxy conflict?

The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”

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Who benefits from controlled proxy conflict
Great Palestine Rally' and Sweden's NATO accession protocol

'Great Palestine Rally' and Sweden's NATO accession protocol

The Turkish media reported two major developments with the potential to cause a stir in domestic politics. First, Sabah reported that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was going to host a pro-Palestinian event, the “Great Gathering for Palestine,” outside its provincial headquarters in Istanbul and that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and fellow leaders of the People’s Alliance would attend it. Secondly, the Directorate of Communications announced that President Erdoğan had signed Sweden’s NATO accession protocol and sent it to the Turkish Parliament.

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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spread across the region and exacerbate great power competition. As United States military bases in Iraq and Syria come under drone attacks more and more frequently, a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea shot down cruise missiles that the Houthi rebels in Yemen fired at Israel – harassing fire from Iran’s proxies.

The non-Western world viewed U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel as unconditional support for that country’s heavy bombardment and blockade of the Gaza Strip. Blaming Hamas – “the other team” – for the killing of more than 500 Palestinians at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, the U.S. President neither shared any evidence nor talked about forming an international committee to investigate what happened.

Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.

The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Assad in Damascus and delivered humanitarian aid to Syria through the regime. The day after the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister al-Nahyan, who is trying to lead the normalization process with Syria, Assad allowed UN aid teams to cross into opposition-controlled areas of Syria. It is no secret that many Arab countries, including the UAE and Egypt, prefer normalizing ties with the Syrian regime. Although the American administration has expressed its opposition to normalization efforts with the Assad regime in the region, there is no indication of serious pressure being exerted on this issue.

The two countries’ relationship had deteriorated with the pro-status quo Arab countries after the Arab insurgencies and revolutions erupted in 2011. As a result, the Middle East states were divided into two camps: pro-change and pro-status quo coalitions. However, after the consolidation of the status quo in the region and new dynamics of the area, the regional states have begun to normalize their relations with the rest of the region.

It is necessary to uphold the sense of solidarity, which emerged among states after the earthquakes. Last but not least, one would hope that the humane way of thinking can triumph over the idea of interest and exploitation in international relations. This is a time to focus on moral values and solidarity – not realpolitik.

Perhaps it is only a matter of time that the leaders of Turkey and Egypt meet in one of the two capitals.

With the world's attention diverted by the Russia-Ukraine war throughout the year, the Middle East was not at the top of the international political agenda in 2022