Turkey has been engaging in shuttle diplomacy to end the Russian occupation of Ukraine. Between Feb. 24 and March 17, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan built on his prewar reconciliation efforts by speaking with 35 foreign leaders on 38 occasions. During the Ukraine war, Ankara implemented an idiosyncratic policy, which deserves attention, thanks to the Turkish leader’s insistence on leader-to-leader diplomacy. Needless to say, Turkey has a strong relationship with both parties – which enables them to trust Ankara. Russia and Ukraine, not to mention the international community, welcomed the Turkish decision not to let warships pass through the Turkish Straits. The Turkish government has also condemned the Russian occupation and endorsed Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity. Indeed, Ukrainian officials have been quite grateful for Ankara’s humanitarian, political, diplomatic and other kinds of support. By extension, they want Turkey to serve as a guarantor alongside the United Nations Security Council’s permanent members and Germany. Meanwhile, Turkey, which did not impose sanctions on Russia, strives to get results through strong diplomatic engagement with Moscow. Turkey’s diplomatic activity, which acknowledges the entitled rights of the parties whilst also looking out for multiple sides, makes it more likely to mediate peace talks. Even though Moscow seems to prefer Israel, Kyiv views Ankara as a potential mediator as well as a postwar guarantor. Overwhelmed by harsh economic sanctions, the Russians might want to get results through diplomacy over the next weeks. After all, there is a growing sense that a new Cold War has started between the West and Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden has already called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” and signed off on an $800 million arms package for Ukraine. Again, the U.S. president warned his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, not to provide assistance to Russia. At this point, diplomacy alone would give Putin an exit, without him losing face – which he desperately needs. The way things stand, the status of Crimea and the Donbass region remains the most critical issue at the negotiation table. If the Russian president opts to prolong the war, as the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan, he would enable the West to implement a decisive containment policy to end Russia’s great power status.

The strategic importance

Amid the confrontation between the West and Russia, which is expected to continue for a long time, Turkey’s strategic importance seems to have been rediscovered. In Washington and European capitals, Turkey’s perception has already improved. That development stands to have major strategic repercussions over time. Turkey’s growing strength, however, is not just rooted in its geographical location or the fact that it finds itself at the crossroads of multiple conflicts. Instead, the country’s international standing is a product of the active foreign policy, to which it subscribed in recent years. It reflects Turkey’s use of hard power in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh as well as its pursuit of cooperation and diplomacy – as embodied by the policy of normalization. The growing interest in Turkish armed drones from many countries, too, is a mere reflection of the country’s new role. The Russian invasion has not only encouraged Europe to turn to Turkey – read: the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Eastern Mediterranean – to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, but also assigned Ankara a more crucial position vis-a-vis European security. That point is best appreciated by Eastern European leaders, with whom Erdoğan has spoken in recent days. It would seem that they will do everything in their power to get Germany and France to adapt to the fresh circumstances.

Emine Erdoğan's message

Turkey’s first lady, Emine Erdoğan, supports the country’s diplomatic efforts by answering the call of Ukrainian mothers and women. She issued a video statement on March 3 to address her Ukrainian counterpart, Olena Zelenska, and the people of Ukraine, which showed that she cared more deeply about that issue than the spouses of many Western leaders. Recalling that humanity was “extremely tired” at this point, Emine Erdoğan said that countries ought to resolve their differences through diplomacy, not war, and urged the world to say “no to war” and “yes to peace.” She built on that message in her International Women’s Day message on March 8 by highlighting the plight of women and children in Ukraine. At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, too, the first lady chose to highlight the screams of Ukrainian mothers, who lost their children in combat, and the suffering of those that were forced to flee their homeland. I believe that the first lady’s support for the Ukrainian people represents an extremely meaningful and womanly intervention in the realm of diplomacy and that her involvement has distinguished Turkey’s ongoing efforts from the initiatives of other nations.