SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2025
This edition sheds light on Türkiye’s approach to mitigating economic constraints, strengthening defense exports, and leveraging diplomatic influence to shape the regional and global security order in 2025.
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Importance of US-Türkiye partnership in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war
In 2023, the number of conflicts worldwide increased to 59, the highest recorded since data collection began in 1946. US President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the November presidential election raised the possibility of ending at least some of these conflicts. Ending wars was a central commitment of Trump’s election campaign. Americans cast their votes for Trump because they do not want to spend their taxes in these endless wars anymore. While cutting financial aid to war-torn countries could help, the new US administration may need a more comprehensive approach. As Trump pursues his policy to end wars, he may need partners and facilitators to share the burden.
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The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missile systems against targets inside Russia has marked a significant escalation in the war.
The world’s most developed countries convened at the G-20 summit in Brazil to discuss hunger and poverty on a global scale. The possibility of using wealth taxes collected from the rich to address the needs of underdeveloped regions has long been a key topic on the G-20’s agenda.
While United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was calling for the restructuring of all institutions of international governance, including the U.N., in his opening speech at the 79th General Assembly, Israel was conducting its 800th air sortie against Lebanon and dropping its 2,000th bomb over Lebanon. In the aftermath of Israel’s ongoing attacks, reports state that more than 500 people, including 100 children, were killed in Lebanon.
The Middle East is on fire and neither regional nor global actors do much to prevent further bloodshed in the region. Israel’s expansionist and supremacist policies in Palestine and in its periphery force all relevant actors into a regional war. The Israeli leadership knows well that none of the Western global actors dare to follow a deterrent policy against Israel. In addition, considering the deadly silence of the Arab world, there is no strong enough power that can prevent Israel from its genocidal military operations in the Gaza Strip and its brutal policies in the West Bank.
The 'tragedy' of US policy vis-a-vis Israel
The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.
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ADF 2024: Proactive diplomacy against challenges
I attended the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Friday. Bringing together politicians, diplomats, academics, journalists and think tankers from 147 countries, the event has already claimed a respectable place among the world’s leading platforms.
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Over the weekend, I had the opportunity to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The forum addressed numerous issues concerning Türkiye's foreign policy priorities, with a particular focus on the reconstruction of the international system in an era of regional instability and global challenges. The theme of rebuilding the international system in the post-World War II era, based on 'rule-based' principles established by the United States, stood out as a central topic. However, it's evident that this system has failed to effectively address problems or maintain stability in today's world. Amidst discussions highlighting this fundamental issue, it was clear that Türkiye is seeking grounded leadership through realistic assessments of diplomacy's possibilities and limitations.
Russia-Ukraine War | A Two-Year Review
As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.
The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.
In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.
The events of 2023 have significantly diversified potential geopolitical and strategic scenarios for 2024.
Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.
