I attended the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Friday. Bringing together politicians, diplomats, academics, journalists and think tankers from 147 countries, the event has already claimed a respectable place among the world’s leading platforms.

Russia-Ukraine War | A Two-Year Review

As uncertainty, competition and conflict gain momentum within the international system, Türkiye engages in diplomacy to play a more defining role in global and regional crises.

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.

Ukraine | Journey of War for Just Peace

Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal continues to capture the global media’s attention as that decision disproportionately hurts African nations. Having hosted 17 African heads of state and government last week, the Kremlin used the discourse of “opposing new Western colonialism together” at the Russia-Africa Summit – where Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged free grains to Africa.

Russia declaring the end of the grain agreement, the Prigozhin uprising, and the post-Vilnius Summit show that it wants the cards to be reshuffled. The Prigozhin uprising exposed weaknesses and rifts in the Russian military, resulting in a loss of political reputation for Putin. It has become clear that Russia cannot achieve a clear victory on the front lines in the near future. However, the slow progress of its counteroffensive indicates that Ukraine also cannot achieve a quick resolution. This balance situation indicates that the war could potentially extend over years, unless Putin makes a sudden decision to withdraw. It is known that the Russian military faces significant manpower and logistical challenges. In this scenario where military superiority is not attainable, we observe the use of asymmetric advantages such as the cancellation of the grain agreement.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started a new debate ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Commenting on Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance, he argued that the relevant countries should “clear Türkiye’s path to European Union (EU) membership.” That statement aligned perfectly well with the readout of Erdoğan’s most recent phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden.

As we witnessed one of the most significant elections on the centennial of the Turkish Republic’s founding, Insight Turkey proudly presents a special issue that meticulously evaluates the elections and examines how Türkiye’s foreign policy will be shaped in their aftermath and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

Last weekend's historic events in Russia have sparked discussions on the role and preferences of the United States and its allies. The main motivation of Prigozhin, one of Putin's closest associates, was to preserve the power and autonomy of Wagner. However, there have been frequent speculations that he may have been "encouraged" by the West. Putin accuses Prigozhin of betraying him, while the Kremlin suggests the involvement of "external forces." It is worth noting that these comments and insinuations are politically driven and difficult to substantiate. However, an important question arises regarding whether American policy seeks Putin's removal from power. Given the strained relationship with the West due to the Ukraine occupation and the economic costs faced by Moscow, it can be argued that they may prefer a weakened Russia at the negotiating table rather than pushing it into chaos.

On June 23, 2023, the world experienced a great surprise when the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, revolted against the Russian government. Seemingly, the revolt arose due to increasing tension between the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Defense Ministry, especially Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk suffering significant losses in this attack. The outcome of this offensive will determine whether discussions about the end of the war can begin or if the conflict will prolong for years to come.

The participation of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the G-7 summit in Hiroshima holds significant symbolic importance. The choice of Hiroshima sends a message of a nuclear-free world, while Zelenskyy's surprise attendance draws attention to the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. In addition to this emphasis, the explicit support of G-7 countries for Zelenskyy and President Biden's statement on F-16s also stand out as political developments with a deterrent effect on Russia. By addressing the Taiwan issue, a clear political message was conveyed, making this G-7 meeting the most politically significant so far.

The West's inability to gain support from the global South, its military capacity being weakened, concerns about its inability to handle China's intervention in Taiwan, and the lack of probability of taking back Donbas and Crimea, strengthens the arguments that support for Ukraine should be proportional to a political objective.

U.S. officials have warned Beijing by leaking to the media that China is considering giving military aid to Russia, including heavy weapons, kamikaze drones, and other weapons.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has demonstrated that the character of warfare is changing radically.