Erdoğan's Astana visit and the diplomacy

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spent two days in Astana, Kazakhstan earlier this week to attend the 6th Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia and the Türkiye-Kazakhstan High-Level Strategic Cooperation meeting. On the occasion of that visit, Ankara and Astana concluded 20 agreements that will take their relations to the next level.

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Erdoğan's Astana visit and the diplomacy
Ukraine war Putin's new move Erdoğan's peace efforts

Ukraine war: Putin's new move, Erdoğan's peace efforts

Obviously, the Turkish president has been the world’s best hope for peace as the only NATO leader in touch with the Russian head of state and for engaging in active and peaceful diplomacy amid the latest crisis. Indeed, it was Türkiye that made possible the grain deal and the exchange of 200 prisoners of war.

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Türkiye has done is stop blocking NATO's extension of an invitation to the countries. In other words, their accession process has just started, not ended.

Türkiye emerges as a power that generates stability and security in its neighborhood – Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, the Gulf and North Africa.

In this collection of essays, we discuss how NATO can overcome strategic challenges and recalibrate the strength of the alliance under the new geopolitical circumstances. The essays in this report focus on NATO’s transformations after the Ukraine war and attempt to understand Türkiye’s foreign policy alternatives within the context of its relations with the West, Russia, and NATO.

This paper consists of two main parts. In the first part, it explains the main priorities that NATO is focusing on by elaborating on the Russian attack on Ukraine, the China challenge, and the changing character of military and non-military threats. In the second part, the paper delivers a framework to make sense of why Türkiye particularly attaches unique significance to some issues. It concludes that Türkiye will continue to support NATO endeavors but the country expects its allies to cooperate on counterterrorism efforts and also expects calibrated and meaningful engagement in Greek-Turkish disagreements.

Understanding Türkiye's position on NATO enlargement

Türkiye's reservations against Finland and Sweden's membership emanate from Ankara's long-standing frustration over Western tolerance and support for the PKK/YPG

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Understanding Türkiye's position on NATO enlargement
Rising costs and changing positions in Ukraine

Rising costs and changing positions in Ukraine

With the human and economic costs of the war now unbearable not just for the warring sides but for almost all states, many have begun to talk about reconciliation, especially their close trade partners.

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When evaluated in terms of international security and geopolitical dimensions, it stands as a concrete reality that Russia must first be persuaded in order for Ukraine to become a member of the EU.

With his latest moves, Erdoğan is not starting a crisis but instead highlighting a framework for justice and a lasting alliance in Turkey’s relations with NATO, the U.S. and Greece

Considering Turkey’s geostrategic location and its military and political power, Western countries need to calculate the cost of alienating Ankara

Ankara's only condition is that Sweden, Finland and NATO members do not participate in campaigns that threaten Turkey's security, such as supporting PKK/YPG terrorists

Ankara does not oppose NATO’s expansion or the admission of Sweden and Finland categorically. It is perfectly normal, however, for Turkey to urge its allies to take into consideration its security concerns, which they have ignored countless times to date, at this particular time and to insist that they take action.

Ankara is not against NATO's expansion amid the Russia-Ukraine war but objects to Finland and Sweden's unacceptable policies on terrorist groups

There are five reasons why Turkey opposes the NATO bid of Sweden and Finland, the first of which is naturally both states' support for terrorism

The US decision to grant an exemption to India, which procured three times as many S-400 missile defense systems as Turkey, caused dismay in Ankara.

Ankara endorses NATO’s key goals and wants the alliance to address its security concerns – that's all

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared Russia has failed in Ukraine, but it's still too early make such a precise statement

The Ukraine war has changed the expectations of both the U.S. and Russia and thus all balance on the ground

The further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war can only be prevented if warring sides take bolder steps for negotations

Whatever it does, the opposition bloc in Turkey fails to come up with a consistent mutual political agenda against what it sees as its rival