The PKK's violent campaign, disguised as a quest for autonomy, has made life miserable for 1.3 million people in southeastern Turkey. A large number of local residents in PKK-occupied towns have been forced to leave their homes amid ongoing clashes with security forces.

In light of the most recent developments, pundits have been calling for a return to dialogue. Some experts even claim that Ankara will not be able to exert soft power in the Middle East unless it engages in disarmament talks with the PKK leadership.

Turkey's American friends, in the meantime, seem prepared to serve as intermediaries in the next round of talks. Citing the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party's (PYD) strong ties with Washington, Moscow and Tehran as well as its proximity to carving out a swath of land across northern Syria, the same experts argue that a new round of talks is inevitable. Since the map of the Middle East will be redrawn and Turkey will facilitate the birth of Kurdistan in Iraq and Syria, they claim Ankara has no choice but to negotiate terms with the PYD, thePKK's affiliate in Syria. Otherwise, they warn, an independent Kurdish state will fall under Russian and Iranian control.

Needless to say, there are a lot of flaws in this line of thinking.

First of all, a lot has happened since the government launched the reconciliation process in January 2013. At the time, DAESH did not exist, nor had the PYD and its armed People's Protection Units (YPG) created cantons in northern Syria. The conflict between Northern Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Irbil and the PKK leadership in the region's Qandil Mountains did not run so deep, either. Over the past two years, regional developments in line with PKK interests derailed the reconciliation process. Behind the smokescreen of disarmament talks, the terrorists exploited the prospect of peace to stockpile weapons across the southeast.

And why should the PKK leadership turn its back on this project provided that there are more reasons to fight today? Turkey's troubles with Russia and Iraq have created a friendlier environment for the PKK across the southern border. If anything, there is a good chance that Baghdad will provide weapons and ammunition to PKK militants who are challenging the KRG in Irbil. Most recently, the deputy chairman of the KRG Parliament Interior Committee, Nazim Herqi, claimed that the central government in Baghdad was trying to merge the PKK with Shiite militia forces. Such an attempt, if true, would strongly resemble Washington's decision to conceal YPG fighters behind the Syrian Democratic Forces. At the end of the day, there is an effort to unite the PYD with Sunni Arabs in Syria and the PKK with Shiite militias in Iraq.

Experts who ask Turkey to facilitate the birth of an independent Kurdish state underestimate the tensions between Irbil and the PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains. Moving forward, a power struggle might divide Kurdish nationalists. The fact that Irbil enjoys close relations with Ankara and that the PKK would rather work with Russia, Iran and the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad will certainly aggravate the situation.

Another problem is that the entire debate focuses on three parts of an imaginary country. Thus far, Tehran has successfully kept Iran's Kurds out of the discussion. At this time, there is ample evidence that the PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains and Kurdish nationalists in Turkey effectively govern the northern Syrian cantons. Needless to say, this situation is different from having a Kurdish government in Northern Iraq, and it is more difficult to strike a deal with PYD than cooperate with Iraq's Kurds.

At this time, the PKK leadership threatens to unite southeastern Turkey with the PYD-controlled cantons in northern Syria in a challenge to the country's territorial integrity. Over the next decade, Turkey will have no choice but to deal with the consequences of the PYD's potential rise to power in northern Syria. As such, it is simply unrealistic to expect Turkey to negotiate with the PKK at this time. Instead, the call for dialogue is an ideologically charged move geared toward legitimizing the PKK and boosting the terrorist organization's influence.

[Daily Sabah, December 29, 2015]