CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics

With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner. Despite orchestrating the "table for six" last year, the CHP was consumed by a debate over the opposition’s joint presidential candidate. Nowadays, the debate over candidate selection highlights that same vulnerability. Specifically, several outgoing mayors, whom the CHP did not endorse for reelection, accuse the party leadership of "getting rid of" Kurds, Alevis and supporters of former Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – which is far more damaging than anything the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) or others could say. The change in leadership not only failed to generate political momentum but also triggered an intraparty power struggle and caused various camps to trade accusations.

That the main opposition party seems to pick candidates based on their proximity to the top (as opposed to their electability) threatens to dishearten its supporters. Moreover, the IP’s vocal criticism makes it more difficult for the CHP to recover on the campaign trail, as the main opposition party’s war of words with its former allies makes it vulnerable in the face of the governing party. Let us recall that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan asked his audience in the city of Bursa the following question: “Is it remotely possible for those folks, who treat their allies so poorly, to show compassion to our cities?”

IP-CHP ties?

Meanwhile, the IP needs to account for its decision to part ways with the CHP. When Istanbul’s municipality prevented the IP from placing campaign ads on local billboards, IP Chairperson Meral Akşener promptly blamed Imamoğlu. She could certainly go further. Indeed, the movement needs to launch such attacks to attract voters to its own candidate because the pro-CHP media will start talking about the failure of Akşener’s project on election night if she cannot talk her supporters out of voting for CHP-affiliated candidates.

Consolidation race

The opposition’s political landscape changes as the relevant parties contest the municipal election individually. Those opposition parties, which no longer have to cooperate with the CHP, seek to consolidate their respective bases in March. That trend, which the IP created, highlights a new state of affairs. Yet, the CHP circles accuse the other opposition movements of “causing the CHP’s loss” instead of appreciating the transformation underway.

In truth, the opposition’s May 2023 defeat established the following: Uniting against Erdoğan can no longer be the glue that keeps the opposition together. To make matters worse, it leads to losses. That is why asking the IP, the Felicity Party (SP), the Homeland Party or the Victory Party (ZP) why they criticize the CHP instead of the governing party merely embodies the main opposition party’s helplessness. Under the joint leadership of CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel and Imamoğlu, the main opposition party faces an isolation incomparable to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 2019 and 2023 alliances. The opposition parties, in turn, are making preparations for the 2028 presidential election already.

[Daily Sabah, February 6, 2024]