What does 'political détente' bring to Turkish politics?

Speaking to reporters after last week’s Friday prayer, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan commented on his meeting with Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Özgür Özel, adding that he intended to visit the CHP headquarters soon: “This is what Türkiye and Turkish politics need. I wish to start a process of political softening in Türkiye by making that visit happen at the earliest convenience. We will take that step.”

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What does 'political d tente' bring to Turkish politics
CHP Chair Özel's line challenges new IP's third-way agenda

CHP Chair Özel's line challenges new IP's third-way agenda

The Good Party (IP) held an emergency congress on Sunday to replace its chairperson, Meral Akşener, with Müsavat Dervişoğlu.

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As Türkiye’s political parties and leaders analyze the municipal election results, it remains unclear what Turkish politics will look like in this new period. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid due respect to the people’s choice on election night, making an inclusive statement that encouraged the opposition to speak responsibly.

All political parties need to interpret the outcome of the March 31 municipal elections accurately.

Sunday's municipal elections in Türkiye highlighted the country's democratic maturity. Determining the outcome of political competition at the ballot box was yet another manifestation of democratic consolidation in the country. The Republican People's Party (CHP) ranked first in the election, where 78.55 of voters participated, receiving 37.76% and winning 14 metropolitan municipalities and 21 provinces.

It is still unclear to what extent the local elections to be held on Sunday will affect Turkish politics. In terms of macro-political dynamics, the main patterns of politics in Türkiye are not expected to change. After the local elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will have more than four years ahead of him.

3 structural problems of CHP's local election campaign

The municipal election campaign of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been riddled with crises, and I am not talking about their various statements that have become the subject of controversy. For example, this is not about the CHP chairperson’s remarks about Turkish citizens who paid for their exemption from military service or Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s comments on housewives.

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3 structural problems of CHP's local election campaign
AK Party-led alliance and YRP ties as election nears Quo

AK Party-led alliance and YRP ties as election nears: Quo vadis?

With the municipal election just three weeks away, the relationship between the People’s Alliance and the New Welfare Party ("Yeniden Refah" in Turkish - YRP) becomes more apparent. The most significant development of the current election cycle was the opposition parties, which formed an alliance with the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), in May 2023 and decided to field their own candidates.

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Türkiye’s municipal election remains approximately one month away, but the political parties have been running low-intensity campaigns. In other words, we have not yet witnessed strongly worded statements, serious alienation or significant polarization – an absence of the "survival" discourse.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s municipal election campaign rests on two pillars. The first relates to the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) ongoing success and vision for the future – which its election manifesto highlighted with reference to resilient cities and public services and works. The movement showcased its ability by delivering homes to the survivors of the Feb. 6, 2023 earthquakes earlier this week. That Erdoğan’s administration built 75,000 homes by the disaster’s anniversary and pledged to increase that number to 200,000 by the end of 2024 sent a clear message to the electorate: “The AK Party is great at solving problems, implementing projects and delivering services. No other party can compete with it in those fields.”

Following in the Good Party’s (IP) footsteps, the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), decided to field their own candidates, as opposed to joining an alliance, for the upcoming municipal election – an emerging trend that creates a political landscape where the "third-way" debate is expected to gain prominence anew.

Local elections are scheduled to be held in Türkiye on March 31. Although local elections may not significantly shape the immediate future of the country, they hold the potential to trigger numerous political dynamics.

With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.

The campaign rhetoric heats up with the municipal elections less than 70 days away. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Good Party's (IP) narratives promise to challenge the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

Parliament returned from recess on Tuesday to debate the PKK’s terror attacks. The PKK carried out suicide attacks against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq on Dec. 22 and Jan. 12, claiming 21 lives. That development fueled a multifaceted debate in Türkiye.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) mayoral candidates in 26 provinces, including Istanbul, on Sunday.

The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.

Twelve Turkish soldiers lost their lives earlier this week in an attack by the terrorist organization PKK in northern Iraq. I offer my condolences to their families and the nation.

Ahead of the March 2024 municipal elections, the ongoing Good Party (IP) crisis continues to capture everyone’s attention. That party’s chairwoman, Meral Akşener, recently accused the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, of "cowardice." Several parliamentarians are rumored to be on the brink of leaving the IP over those comments.

With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election “freely” and “individually” encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.

The IP leadership’s refusal to endorse the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) mayoral candidates in Istanbul and Ankara caused uproar among local chapters and council members, whom those municipalities support financially, as well as other proponents of electoral alliances. In other words, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, widely seen as mayors of the 2019 alliance, used their influence over the IP – arguably the price that IP Chair Meral Akşener and her movement are expected to pay.