AK Party-led alliance and YRP ties as election nears: Quo vadis?

With the municipal election just three weeks away, the relationship between the People’s Alliance and the New Welfare Party ("Yeniden Refah" in Turkish - YRP) becomes more apparent. The most significant development of the current election cycle was the opposition parties, which formed an alliance with the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), in May 2023 and decided to field their own candidates.

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AK Party-led alliance and YRP ties as election nears Quo
YRP YSP's independent run spurs third-way debate in Turkish politics

YRP, YSP's independent run spurs third-way debate in Turkish politics

Following in the Good Party’s (IP) footsteps, the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), decided to field their own candidates, as opposed to joining an alliance, for the upcoming municipal election – an emerging trend that creates a political landscape where the "third-way" debate is expected to gain prominence anew.

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With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.

Twelve Turkish soldiers lost their lives earlier this week in an attack by the terrorist organization PKK in northern Iraq. I offer my condolences to their families and the nation.

Over the past few months, the Republican People's Party (CHP) has been working toward convincing the Good Party (IP) to join forces ahead of next year's municipal elections. Local leaders who happen to be part of the municipal ecosystem in Istanbul and Ankara support some type of collaboration.

The attempt by the Good Party (IP) chairperson, Meral Akşener, not to form any alliances for next year’s municipal elections continues to set the political agenda in Türkiye. The current situation does not just highlight the opposition’s ongoing crisis. It also reflects on the May 2023 coalition that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) spearheaded. That is why Akşener’s new discourse, on top of the CHP’s internal strife and "change" debate, remains the subject of a heated political debate.

Is it possible to treat opposition’s ‘internal bleeding’?

Türkiye’s governing alliance pays no attention to the opposition and prepares for next year’s local elections. The resulting political void is filled by a showdown between and within the opposition alliance’s members. As new details about past negotiations and disappointments surface in the media, the opposition continues to bleed internally.

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Is it possible to treat opposition s internal bleeding
CHP pulls down all opposition in Türkiye

CHP pulls down all opposition in Türkiye

The CHP chairperson holds the upper hand because he controls the majority of party delegates. Accordingly, he can get reelected comfortably and handpick mayoral candidates. Yet, the leaked Zoom meeting suggests that Kılıçdaroğlu must sack a large number of CHP executives. By contrast, Imamoğlu needs to step into the arena.

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With Türkiye’s transition to a presidential system in April 2017, after a historic referendum that saw 51.4% of the votes cast in favor of the new system, political parties in Türkiye immediately began to adapt to the new system. The presidential system, which requires candidates to win an absolute majority of first-round votes, forged pre-election alliances. It became clear to all opposition parties, led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), that on their own they could not defeat Erdoğan or the AK Party (Justice and Development Party) under Erdoğan’s leadership?

Everyone seems to agree that Türkiye will make a “critically important choice at a historic crossroads” on May 14. That makes us expect an election campaign where each candidate and their parties will speak their truths. Do not be fooled by the ongoing calmness, as electoral alliances have been trying to expand and negotiate candidate lists in the month of Ramadan.

Political parties in Türkiye are working hard to finalize their candidate lists by the April 9 deadline. The relevant committees probably find it more difficult to select candidates today than ever. The already-complex selection process is further complicated by electoral alliances producing joint lists in certain districts and trying to predict how those decisions may influence the allocation of parliamentary seats.

This article analyzes the approaches of the two major electoral alliances set to compete in the upcoming elections, instead of focusing on each political party’s proposed system of government separately.

Although the checks and balances mechanisms in modern liberal democracies have increasingly diversified, the most effective means for accountability and controlling leaders is still the ballot box. Of course, free, fair and competitive elections are not the only condition for a regime’s pluralistic and libertarian rule, but it is a prerequisite.

With nearly 50 days left until the Turkish elections, the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance are doing everything possible to win the Presidency in the first round.

Türkiye’s pro-opposition circles have launched an excessive public perception campaign for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson and presidential candidate. The conservative parties that are part of the “table for six,” the opposition bloc that nominated Kılıçdaroğlu, and pro-CHP media personalities and authors lead that effort. Specifically, they refer to the prominent opposition leader as a mujtahid and draw parallels between him and Mahatma Gandhi to support his claim of being calm, collected, compromising, democratic and inclusive. Their praise for Kılıçdaroğlu comes with accusations against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – whom they see as the complete opposite.

CHP Chair Kılıçdaroğlu will not be able to avoid being the target of the agenda, whether he is a candidate or not

The 'table for six' cannot seem to stop being a coalition of unrelated parties no matter how many times they meet or how many documents they unveil

The joint statement of the 'table for six' suggests that an extremely aggressive campaign is in the making

CHP head Kılıçdaroğlu revealed the main opposition’s development plan. Ahead of that announcement, he raised expectations by claiming that he would 'unveil a vision to end the crisis forever'

The million-dollar question in Turkish politics is whether the opposition bloc – known as the 'table for six'– should stay together or disband.

The opposition bloc is unable to present a feasible alternative for governing Türkiye despite considering themselves as the opposite of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party)