CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics

With the 2024 municipal elections just 53 days away, the People’s Alliance has momentum, while the opposition parties have failed to form alliances. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), built electoral alliances in 2019 and 2023. This time around, it has no choice but to collaborate with the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), which succeeded the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), in some provinces. It is no secret that the potential partnership between the CHP and YSP in Istanbul would be facilitated by Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu – which would open him up to criticism from the People’s Alliance, as well as the Good Party (IP). Meanwhile, Başak Demirtaş’s seeming interest in running for mayor suggests that the CHP might have to campaign alone in Istanbul. She is, of course, the wife of jailed ex-HDP Chairperson Selahattin Demirtaş. Such a development would make “grassroots as opposed to intraparty cooperation” the only option on the table, but the main opposition party has been handling the situation in a very fragmented and counterproductive manner.

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CHP fails to grasp shifting opposition dynamics
What is agenda of campaigns as Turkish local elections near

What is agenda of campaigns as Turkish local elections near?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) mayoral candidates in 26 provinces, including Istanbul, on Sunday.

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At the height of his political power, Erdoğan will make improvements to the presidential system in an attempt to consolidate it. Adopting a holistic approach to all parts of politics, he will try to take bold steps and launch new initiatives in Türkiye.

With Türkiye entering the final week of the 2023 election campaign, rhetorical battles have notably escalated. It would be wrong to reduce that development to peak polarization because what observers have called this year’s most important election remains critically important for the country’s future.

The pro-PKK Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) led Labor and Freedom Alliance officially endorsed Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the main opposition's Republican People's Party (CHP), last week. That they backed the main opposition leader was the worst-kept secret in Türkiye, but it is important to note that they justified their decision with reference to “the triumph against fascism in the most consequential election in the country’s political history.”

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition bloc’s presidential candidate and chairperson of the Republican People's Party (CHP), released two videos titled “Kurds” and “Alevi” last week. He claimed that “millions of Kurds were treated like terrorists for a few votes” in the first video. In the second, he identified as “Alevi” and called on young people to “tear down this discriminatory system claiming that an Alevi cannot (hold office).”

HDP's heavy influence in the Turkish opposition's discourse

It would seem that HDP has started dominating the opposition bloc with its radical demands as well as marginal discourse.

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HDP's heavy influence in the Turkish opposition's discourse
The Earthquake and High Politics

The Earthquake and High Politics

In the wake of the most recent earthquakes, it was important for government agencies to launch search and rescue efforts without delay. As expected, Cabinet ministers personally oversaw relief efforts in earthquake-stricken provinces. It was also important for politicians to express solidarity at that difficult time. After all, the effectiveness of government agencies in crisis management is an achievement for which the entire country would take credit.

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With nearly 50 days left until the Turkish elections, the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance are doing everything possible to win the Presidency in the first round.

Retracting from her comments due to the CHP’s attacks and isolating herself within the opposition bloc, IP Chair Akşener is likely to face pressure from secularists over the HDP’s involvement

The pro-PKK HDP strengthened its hand vis-à-vis the 'table for six' by opting to field its own presidential candidate

In truth, the question at hand goes beyond that. This is about who would make crucial political decisions (and how) if the opposition bloc were to win next year’s elections.

The People’s Alliance, which already has a presidential candidate, will redouble its efforts to develop inspiring and constructive policies. By contrast, the competition among presidential hopefuls and over discourse and policy choices will mount pressure on the opposition bloc – the 'table for six.'

Türkiye’s political parties will ostensibly fight over the Kurdish vote bank in the 2023 election campaign. That competition has already fueled rumors about a new “opening,” yet it remains unclear whether that will lead to concrete and comprehensive policy proposals.

2021 was not filled with many positive stories about Turkish-European Union relations. At the end of 2020, in a report published The Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), we assessed the conclusion of cautious optimism for 2021. While the side of caution prevails, the optimism has been delayed for yet another year.

The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party (IP) recently signaled that they could walk back on their rapprochement with the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

President Erdoğan told Parliament that he has implemented a series of reforms and took several steps to resolve the Kurdish question since rising to that challenge in 2005.

Opposition leaders Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Meral Akşener of the Good Party (IP) continue to call for an early election, whenever they feel like it.

The opposition elites, by contrast, cannot rid themselves of "othering" – secularist fanaticism. They are certainly miles away from having the kind of self-confidence needed to govern a country like Turkey.

Turkey entered possibly the longest election cycle in its political history. No, I am not referring to opposition leaders taking turns to speculate about an early election. As a matter of fact, I still believe that the election will take place, as scheduled, in 2023. Although that election is two years away, the country’s political agenda suggests that party politics are already in the home stretch.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan unveiled the framework for his administration’s reform agenda at the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) parliamentary meeting last week. That policy initiative seeks to promote more production, encourage new investments and create new jobs – as well as adopt new regulations for the judiciary and human rights. The administration thus seeks to boost confidence in the market economy and the rule of law.