After the Syrian opposition overthrew the 61-year-long Baath regime, a new period started in the country. A transition government was established under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa. As soon as the new government was established, it began to restructure and rebuild the state. Some critical steps were taken for the consolidation of the political system. There are many good signs that point to a bright future for Syria, but there are also some significant challenges that need to be overcome.
The constructive factors that will positively influence the future of Syria can be classified into two categories: internal and external factors. The first internal factor is the effectiveness of the central government. Until now, the government has been able to control all parts of the country. It can ensure the security of the Syrian people. The most important step that was taken for the consolidation of the new government is the signing of the country’s constitutional declaration that will be enforced throughout a five-year transitional period. It is a solid framework for the political administration of the country.
Another major domestic factor is the support given to the new administration by the Syrian people, who suffered greatly under the Baath regime. Awareness of the Syrian people will let them contribute to solving any kind of political instability in the country. Expectations of Syrians, including the Kurds as well as other minorities, is the maintenance of the political independence and territorial integrity of the country. Accordingly, the majority of the Kurdish people welcomed the agreement signed between the YPG and the central government.
There are two main constructive external factors that will contribute to the political stability of Syria. The first and most important factor is the support of Türkiye, the main supporter of the Syrian opposition forces from the very beginning of the Syrian revolution. Türkiye will continue to play a constructive role in the restructuring of the country, including the security sector.
The second most important constructive external factor is the support of the Arab countries. Most Arab states have declared that they are ready to provide political and economic aid to the new government. Especially the procurement of financial resources from the Gulf countries will have a major impact on the recovery of the economy.
Challenges to stability
There are several internal and external challenges facing the Syrian transitory government. The most important domestic challenge is to ensure the national security of the country. Although the government claims control of all parts of the country, there is still a large potential for future insurgencies. It will take time to neutralize potential threats within the country.
The second most important domestic challenge is economic vulnerability. The government faces many economic problems, such as the ongoing inability to collect taxes and difficulty in paying civil servants' salaries. In addition, at this point, the government is deprived of the resources of the fertile region controlled by the YPG. Furthermore, the new government has to attract foreign direct investments into the country.
There is also the existence of domestic ethnic/religious fault lines. The existence of three different ethnic or religious minorities, namely Kurds, Syrian Alawites and Druze, will continue to be the country’s Achilles' heel. Many regional and global powers are ready to exploit the conditions of the minorities.
When we look at the external challenges facing the new government, we see that the most important challenge will be Israeli encroachment, which extended its occupation beyond the Golan Heights to about 25 kilometers (about 16 miles) away from the capital city, Damascus. It is clear from the statements of the Israeli officials that Israel will do everything in its power to prevent the establishment of an effective political system. It started to destroy most of the Syrian security infrastructure. In other words, Israel will continue to play its destructive role in the region.
Another external challenge is the possibility of the return of Iran's proxies. Iran, which was the main supporter of the Bashar Assad regime for more than four decades, will continue to play a destructive and subversive role in Syria and will not easily accept its losses in the country. It will continue to exploit the Alawite minority and the remnants of the Assad regime.
The third and last external challenge is the uncertainty of the American policy toward the country. On the one hand, the U.S. wants to satisfy the Israelis by pacifying the new government and keeping the state a de-facto-divided political entity. On the other hand, it wants to manage regional developments by reaching relative stability in Syria. Therefore, the U.S. encouraged the YPG to sign the agreement with the central government, to give up its demands for autonomy, and to lay down its arms. Most probably, other Western countries will also follow this U.S. policy and recognize the new government.
Overall, the possibility to achieve political stability and to maintain territorial integrity is very high. With the support of some external powers such as Türkiye and the Gulf countries, the new Syrian regime will consolidate its position.
