Breaking free: The collapse of the Baath regime
The Baath regime in Syria has ended after a 13-year revolution. After the Syrian opposition forces captured the capital city of Damascus on Dec. 8, Bashar Assad, together with his family, left the country and went to Russia, one of its main supporters. The latest development is a great success for the revolutionary Syrian people, who the regime had oppressed for 61 years. I am quite optimistic about the future of the Syrian state since the Syrian people have a long tradition of peaceful coexistence. Today, I will briefly underline that culture's history and the Syrian people's anti-imperialism.
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Shifting power dynamics in Syria: Assad regime and allies face major setbacks
The Middle Eastern developments continue to set the agenda of international politics. The Al-Aqsa Flood has become a turning point for the whole region. The ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people and the Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of regional countries, directly and indirectly, influence all regional dynamics. Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian proxies in Syria have dramatically changed the Syrian context as well. As a result of the shifted regional balance of power, the opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a military operation against Syria's Bashar Assad regime on Nov. 27.
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Türkiye’s extended hand for normalization represented an opportunity for the Bashar Assad regime. Starting in the early months of 2023, Türkiye demonstrated its determination on this issue. Ensuring territorial integrity, clearing terrorism, enabling the return of refugees and ultimately establishing an inclusive and stable administration in Syria – without excluding the regime – offered Assad a viable way out.
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas launched a major attack on Israeli settlements near Gaza. This unexpected operation drew global attention and led to a series of responses from Israeli officials and their allies. Following this event, the Middle East experienced a significant escalation in regional conflicts, particularly involving Hezbollah, a Lebanese group with close ties to Iran.
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict has once again brought the Middle East to the brink of full-scale war. Since October 2023, when the Palestine-Israel conflict flared up again, the border between Israel and Lebanon has become a flashpoint for military clashes. Hezbollah responded to Israel’s war in Gaza by increasing its attacks on Israeli military positions. In response, Israel has carried out significant artillery and airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people on both the Israeli and Lebanese sides have been forced to flee their homes.
In response to Israel's striking of Iran's consulate in Syria, Ayatollah Khamenei's statement of "retaliation will be given" has heightened the possibility of the regional proxy war escalating into direct conflict. Since October 7th, Netanyahu has been attempting to expand the conflict by targeting Hamas and Shia militia objectives in both Beirut and Syria. The relatively controlled continuation of the "regional war" relied on Iran and Hezbollah refraining from militarily supporting Hamas. However, Khamenei's remarks suggesting that striking the Iranian consulate would mean targeting Iranian soil have also put Washington on high alert.
Is Iran strengthening or becoming isolated?
Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.
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Is Middle East entering new spiral of conflicts?
A series of attacks and clashes sent shockwaves through the Middle East over the last week. Israel's massacres in Gaza and low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border remain underway. Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the United States and Britain bombed Yemen's Houthis for the fourth time on Thursday. Washington also relisted the Houthis as a global terrorist group.
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The Middle East rang in the new year with assassinations and terror attacks. Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy leader of Hamas' political bureau, was assassinated in Beirut last Tuesday. The following day, two bombings in Kirman, Iran (for which Daesh has claimed responsibility) killed 103 people. As those attacks shifted everyone’s attention to Israel, Iran and Hezbollah pledged to exact “revenge and a heavy price.”
It is clear that Tel Aviv, which never again wants to see a similar attack to that of October 7, does not care about international reactions. A possible ground operation in Gaza, the opening of a new front by Hezbollah, new attacks in Syria, and further developments in the West Bank are among the hot topics on the current agenda. Our region may experience the horrific repercussions of ambitious deterrence.
