The Qassam Brigades launched a comprehensive attack on Saturday, causing the Israel-Palestine conflict to recapture the world’s attention anew after long years. Initially shocked by the assault, Israel has been bombarding the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “our response to the Gaza attacks will change the Middle East” as his government’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, described the scope of the Israeli counterattack as follows: “Everything will be cut off – no electricity, no water, no food, no fuel. We are fighting human-like animals, and we will act accordingly.”
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Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.
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Azerbaijan has successfully launched a large-scale military operation against the so-called self-declared Armenian state in Karabakh between Sept. 19 and 20. Thus, it has completed the process of what it achieved after the Second Karabagh War in November 2020. After meeting with the representatives of the local Armenians, the Armenians declared the dissolution of their so-called state. Thus, Azerbaijan has resolved the Karabagh issue. From now on, the Karabagh issue is an internal problem of the Azerbaijani state. The two sides will meet on Oct. 5 in Spain to negotiate the new conditions and possibly to sign a peace agreement.
The 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, which concluded with Baku’s victory, triggered a significant shift in the post-Cold War geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus region. Azerbaijan’s successful effort to partially end the Armenian occupation of Karabakh had two major implications.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke with reporters covering his day trip to Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, where he attended the groundbreaking ceremony for the Iğdır-Nakhchivan Natural Gas Pipeline with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. His main remarks included the following:
There are two main milestones in restructuring Saudi Arabian foreign policy in the post-Cold War period, namely, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the Arab insurgencies and revolutions that erupted in 2011. These two significant developments have vastly changed regional and global balances, leading to the redefinition of Saudi foreign policy preferences.
The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear issue. Immediately after the successful exchange, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran, indicating that the situation is not merely a simple prisoner swap. The fact that the exchange also involves the release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea for humanitarian purchases shows that it is more than just a prisoner exchange. The U.S. government, perhaps to avoid any political cost domestically, is both imposing new sanctions and claiming that it has no connection to the stalled nuclear negotiation process.
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Recent developments in Syria show that the dynamics caused by the civil war are still in effect as demonstrations against the Bashar Assad regime continue due to economic dissatisfaction and clashes between local Arab tribes and the PKK terrorist group’s Syrian presence YPG accelerate.
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BRICS was established as an economic bloc by the fastest-growing countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. BRICS has positioned itself as an economic bloc and an alternative to the G-7, the economic bloc of the most advanced countries, since the first summit held in 2009. While the G-7 represents the advanced Western world and the North, BRICS represents the non-Western world and the Global South.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid an important visit to Iraq between Aug. 22-24. Iraq is one of the most strategic countries in the neighboring geography for Türkiye in terms of the fight against terrorism, energy geopolitics, economic relations, internal stability and rivalry between the countries in the region. Therefore, Fidan’s visit is quite critical before President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's expected visit to Iraq.
Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal continues to capture the global media’s attention as that decision disproportionately hurts African nations. Having hosted 17 African heads of state and government last week, the Kremlin used the discourse of “opposing new Western colonialism together” at the Russia-Africa Summit – where Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged free grains to Africa.
Bringing the long-forgotten Israel issue back to the forefront has cornered the Democrats, pressuring them to take a stance.
Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”
Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.
Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will run against each other in the 2023 presidential race in Türkiye. It will all boil down to one of the two leading candidates winning over undecided voters. That’s why I believe the final weeks to be extremely important and the race to be head-to-head.
China brokered a historical agreement on March 10 that aims to restore the conflictual relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The trilateral joint statement was signed by Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid bin Muhammed Al Aiban, and Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office. Considering its influence in the region and international politics, this mediation effort and agreement is a diplomatic victory for China.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been one of the most supportive politicians towards Israel throughout his political career, recently had to openly express his displeasure with Netanyahu after trying to convince him to abandon his judicial reform plans, which he ultimately failed to do. During the events in Israel, the Biden administration's initial response was to avoid direct criticism and call for compromise. While it was not expected for Washington to harshly criticize Israel, the tone and content of President Biden's statements indicated the depth of his discomfort.
The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Assad in Damascus and delivered humanitarian aid to Syria through the regime. The day after the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister al-Nahyan, who is trying to lead the normalization process with Syria, Assad allowed UN aid teams to cross into opposition-controlled areas of Syria. It is no secret that many Arab countries, including the UAE and Egypt, prefer normalizing ties with the Syrian regime. Although the American administration has expressed its opposition to normalization efforts with the Assad regime in the region, there is no indication of serious pressure being exerted on this issue.
Natural disasters, wars, and economic collapse tend to seriously undermine social order and make it impossible to address even people’s most basic needs. During such periods, it becomes difficult for communities to feed themselves, find shelter, receive medical attention, relocate, and communicate with others. Individuals and communities have provided emergency assistance to such individuals, without expecting anything in return, to address basic needs like food, shelter, and medical treatment throughout history.
Last Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced that they have agreed to resume diplomatic relations and end hostilities. The Chinese government has brokered the deal between the two estranged neighbors and regional enemies. With the initiative of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two countries have decided to exchange ambassadors and reopen embassies. According to the news agencies, the surprise development was announced in Beijing after several days (from March 6 to March 10) of intense deliberations between the two countries' top officials.