In the dynamic landscape of global politics, Türkiye’s bid for membership in the BRICS group – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – represents a strategic move poised to reshape its future. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent attendance at the BRICS meetings in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, underscores Türkiye’s efforts to refine its foreign policy. Although Türkiye has not yet formally applied for membership, Fidan expressed interest in joining BRICS during his recent visit to Beijing.

The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash appears to have plunged Iran into a new period of uncertainty. Questions linger about the cause of the crash, and the political landscape in Iran is, as always, poised for significant shifts. Given the turmoil the country has faced in recent years, predicting the direction of these changes is particularly challenging. Despite the uncertainties, anticipating a revolutionary shift would be imprudent. However, Raisi’s death disrupts the existing power structure and could profoundly impact Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.

The Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus has escalated regional tensions to unprecedented heights, once again thrusting the intricate geopolitics of the Middle East into the spotlight. Iran’s retaliation to this aggression has resonated not only within the region but also on a global scale. Its response was twofold: to display their military prowess and to convey a political message to the international community. This marked the first instance since 1973 of a state responding militarily to Israel at a conventional level, thereby disrupting the longstanding status quo of Israeli immunity. Through these actions, Iran seeks to enhance its deterrence against regional and global actors while simultaneously solidifying its domestic political position.

The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains under control – for now. Yet, it points to an emerging equilibrium in the region. There was already talk of escalating tensions in the Middle East around Gaza and Palestine in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack.

The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.

As the municipal election campaign gained momentum with the unveiling of mayoral candidates and the fine-tuning of their campaigns, two major developments took place in foreign policy: the Turkish Parliament’s approval of Sweden’s NATO admission on Tuesday and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to the Turkish capital, where Türkiye and Iran signed 10 agreements.

Traditionally, Türkiye-Iran relations have been defined by a mix of competition and cooperation. Sharing a long land border and possessing a multidimensional historical depth, numerous dynamics simultaneously affect the relationship between the two countries.

We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.

The recent developments in the Middle East region have led to a deepening instability, with the possibility of conflict increasing day by day. In 2023, we witnessed a period of relative normalization in the Middle East. While countries in the region were trying to minimize the potential for conflict, they had come a long way in developing common potential.

As Israel stands accused of genocide in The Hague, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict spreads to the broader region. On Thursday, the United States and the United Kingdom bombed 72 targets in Yemen, retaliating against Houthi attacks on commercial vessels heading to Israel via the Red Sea to protest the Gaza massacre.

President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.

The new year got off to an extremely busy start in Türkiye.

On Jan. 4, Tehran Times, an international newspaper of Iran, described Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in Iraq, as the “architect” of the new regional geometry in the Middle East. On the same day, a terrorist attack occurred in Kerman, Iran, killing more than 100 civilians.

Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.