The reelection of Donald Trump as the president of the United States has caused great concern in European countries, which largely supported former President Joe Biden's campaign. Trump’s most recent unilateral and interventionist political discourse has increased tension between the U.S. and its long-time trans-Atlantic allies. It is unclear how relations between the U.S. and Europe will shape up. As of today, bilateral relations, which are in a transitional phase, are being put to the test.
Today, there is a deepening ideological divide between the U.S. and Europe. The two sides have begun to have different perspectives about basic political, social and economic issues such as human security, climate change, gender issues, human rights and free markets. As the U.S. became increasingly interventionist and isolationist, undermining climate change and remaining indifferent to human rights violations, Europe began to experience democratization problems and confusion in various political issues.
Determining allies, enemies
The common worldview between the U.S. and the EU, especially toward international politics, is gradually disappearing. First of all, the common threat perception between the U.S. and the EU is over. The U.S. government has declared that it has given up providing a security umbrella to the European countries. The U.S. expects European countries to fend for themselves and to increase their deterrence against external threats.
On the one hand, while the Trump administration does not perceive Russia as an imminent threat to American national security, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a huge concern among European countries. Most European countries have been alarmed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On the other hand, while the Trump administration considers China the main challenger to the American global hegemony, most European countries have been trying to find ways to cooperate with China. Their pursuit to improve their relations with China and other non-Western global powers caused the U.S. to remind them that they are still largely dependent on the U.S. An increasing economic and technopolitical competition and conflict between the U.S. and China will put Europe in an even more difficult situation. Similar to the post-World War II era, Europe will be squeezed between two superpowers.
In addition, the European perspective of the U.S. is not the same. While some European countries cooperate with Washington, others oppose the new American political perspective and the rest, such as Denmark, are threatened by the U.S., their long-time security provider. Until a few weeks ago, European countries were discussing how to ensure their own security without the U.S. help. Now they are discussing how to defend themselves against the U.S.
Divided, weakened, alone
The European security and defense architecture has been facing one of the most significant challenges in the post-Cold War European geopolitical environment. Surely, it will not be easy for Europe to overcome security shortcomings in a short time since it outsourced its security to the U.S. for decades. Therefore, the new U.S. political perspectives caused a deep political and security crisis in Europe. There are a few important dynamics that will determine European security and defense policies and all of these dynamics are directly or indirectly related to U.S. policies.
First of all, European countries have been left alone by their long-time security provider. The U.S. turned to its traditional pre-World War II unilateral position as it is skeptical of any multilateral institution, including the NATO alliance that it instrumentalized throughout the Cold War period.
The second is that, after the U.S. decided to abandon Europe, the continent fell into a deep internal discord. European countries lack a common definition of alliance or threat. For example, there is no common ground among them regarding their perspectives on Russia and China. Some countries, such as Hungary, maintain close relations with Russia. Similarly, despite increasing security threats and uncertainties, European countries have different perspectives of Türkiye, an increasingly strategic power close to Europe. While some countries, such as Italy and Spain, have close relations with Türkiye, some others, such as France and Germany, still prefer to alienate Ankara. In other words, European states are unable to maintain unity even among themselves, much less sustain an alliance with America. There are many internal rifts within Europe.
Another issue is that their defense budget and defense investments are still small, compared to the U.S., Russia and China. While the U.S. forces them to invest more in the defense industry, European countries have limited financial resources to increase their defense budget to meet the expectations. In short, European countries face serious challenges in building their new and autonomous security and defense architecture in the near future.
Redrawing the defense line
Another important dynamic that reveals Europe’s security problems is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which was mainly ignited by the U.S. policies toward the region. After the U.S.-motivated Maidan protests and the overthrow of the pro-Russian Ukrainian government in 2014, the Russian state invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 as a response to the American attempts to expand its sphere of influence against Russian interests. The Russian government then initiated a large-scale attack against Ukraine in 2022 and eventually invaded some other parts of Ukraine.
Nowadays, European countries are concerned about the additional westward Russian expansionism. Many Central and Eastern European countries fear the increasing Russian threat. Europeans used to consider Ukraine as a buffer zone between them and Russia. Now, it is almost gone. Nobody knows where the new European defense line will be.
Furthermore, if the U.S. reaches an agreement with Russia, European countries will remain in a more vulnerable position. The continent is encircled by the U.S. in the West and the Russian Federation in the East; there is no room left for Europe to claim its global strategies and to ensure its security.
Until very recently, Europe had strong backing, namely from the U.S. Nowadays, the continent faces threats on two different fronts, from the West and the East, and this serious challenge is incomparable to previous ones. The more imminent the threats directed at the European continent, the more difficult it will be to overcome the challenges and maintain its unity. Time will show us the result.
