SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2025

This edition sheds light on Türkiye’s approach to mitigating economic constraints, strengthening defense exports, and leveraging diplomatic influence to shape the regional and global security order in 2025.

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SETA Security Radar Türkiye s Geopolitical Landscape in 2025
Importance of US-Türkiye partnership in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war

Importance of US-Türkiye partnership in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war

In 2023, the number of conflicts worldwide increased to 59, the highest recorded since data collection began in 1946. US President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the November presidential election raised the possibility of ending at least some of these conflicts. Ending wars was a central commitment of Trump’s election campaign. Americans cast their votes for Trump because they do not want to spend their taxes in these endless wars anymore. While cutting financial aid to war-torn countries could help, the new US administration may need a more comprehensive approach. As Trump pursues his policy to end wars, he may need partners and facilitators to share the burden.

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The year 2024 has been recorded as one of the most brutal years for the Palestinian people and the Middle East. Israel insistently continued its genocide in Gaza and its expansionist and aggressive policies toward other regional states. Furthermore, it continued to recklessly violate the basic principles of international law and human rights. It seems that the year 2025 will not bring any change for the Palestinian people. Their destruction and resistance will continue.

The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missile systems against targets inside Russia has marked a significant escalation in the war.

In the first week after Trump’s election victory, he named several people he intends to appoint to his cabinet, signaling that border security and immigration will be his top priorities.

Türkiye’s foreign policy has been gaining momentum in recent months as a series of developments bolster each other, taking place in quick succession.

World with no system, norms or hegemon

The current international system, which was already quite vulnerable, has totally collapsed after Israel's genocidal policies and the unconditional support of Western governments for the ongoing genocide committed by Israel. Despite the intensifying global rivalry, there was still some hope for the consolidation of the norms-based international system. At least, many states have declared their determination to take effective measures against the rising unconventional global threats such as climate change, environmental problems, irregular and illegal migration, food and water shortage, drought, failed states, cyber threats and violent nonstate actors.

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World with no system norms or hegemon
World at stake Dynamics on second anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war

World at stake: Dynamics on second anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war

The world was not in good shape on the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A quick look at the most recent developments alone would suffice to appreciate that we are entering a period of fragmentation and high risks.

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Russia-Ukraine War | A Two-Year Review

Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as “obsolete” and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.

Internal political disputes in the United States have reached a new phase, jeopardizing aid flow to Ukraine. Republicans, who announced they would not support aid to Ukraine until border security is ensured, deemed Biden's concessions on border security insufficient. More precisely, they stalled the issue at the behest of Trump to potentially exploit the immigration crisis in the presidential elections. Especially after this strategy was accepted in the House of Representatives, it was rejected by Senate Republicans. With the passage of a $95 billion aid package, the Senate shifted the responsibility of aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to Trump-aligned Republicans. If the House of Representatives rejects this aid package under the pretext of the border crisis, it will mark a new phase in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Avoiding a choice between "war continuation" and "diplomatic solution" until the November elections and managing the current situation should not come as a surprise.

The remarks made by Trump, who is widely expected to run for president as the Republican Party candidate, regarding NATO once again underscored how fragile America's claim to global leadership is. Trump threatened to pressure certain NATO member countries to increase their military spending or face consequences. By stating that Russia could do whatever it wants with these countries, Trump escalated his anti-NATO rhetoric to new heights during his presidency. Trump's longstanding questioning of the concept of collective defense by the United States and his failure to protect a NATO member country practically spells the end of this military alliance. The loss of the deterrent effect of NATO's Article 5-based collective defense concept would not only undermine the alliance's guarantees but also signify the end of America's leadership within the Western alliance. As America engages in a global power struggle with Russia and China, it will become increasingly difficult for the country to conduct this struggle within the Western alliance without establishing unity.

An interview and a speech from last week rang alarm bells regarding the fate of world politics. The two-hour interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin was conducted by the American journalist Tucker Carlson, while the speech was delivered at the United Nations General Assembly by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and concluded that the world had entered an “age of chaos.”

Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson's attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson's move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson's lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump's reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.

We hope that this edited volume will highlight some critical turning points and moments of failure by the international community in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It should also inform any policy considerations regarding the status of Crimea as well as a potential future settlement of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The conflict may be a protracted one but the prospects for peace, we hope, will emerge sooner rather than later.