The current international system, which was already quite vulnerable, has totally collapsed after Israel's genocidal policies and the unconditional support of Western governments for the ongoing genocide committed by Israel. Despite the intensifying global rivalry, there was still some hope for the consolidation of the norms-based international system. At least, many states have declared their determination to take effective measures against the rising unconventional global threats such as climate change, environmental problems, irregular and illegal migration, food and water shortage, drought, failed states, cyber threats and violent nonstate actors.

The world was not in good shape on the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A quick look at the most recent developments alone would suffice to appreciate that we are entering a period of fragmentation and high risks.

Russia-Ukraine War | A Two-Year Review

Internal political disputes in the United States have reached a new phase, jeopardizing aid flow to Ukraine. Republicans, who announced they would not support aid to Ukraine until border security is ensured, deemed Biden's concessions on border security insufficient. More precisely, they stalled the issue at the behest of Trump to potentially exploit the immigration crisis in the presidential elections. Especially after this strategy was accepted in the House of Representatives, it was rejected by Senate Republicans. With the passage of a $95 billion aid package, the Senate shifted the responsibility of aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to Trump-aligned Republicans. If the House of Representatives rejects this aid package under the pretext of the border crisis, it will mark a new phase in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Avoiding a choice between "war continuation" and "diplomatic solution" until the November elections and managing the current situation should not come as a surprise.

An interview and a speech from last week rang alarm bells regarding the fate of world politics. The two-hour interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin was conducted by the American journalist Tucker Carlson, while the speech was delivered at the United Nations General Assembly by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and concluded that the world had entered an “age of chaos.”

Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson's attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson's move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson's lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump's reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

The year 2023 began relatively strong for the U.S. in terms of its claim to global leadership in foreign policy. However, due to a strategic blind spot in the context of the Gaza conflict, it ended on a disappointing note. In the upcoming year, it is not difficult to predict that the Biden administration will attempt to diminish this loss of reputation. However, President Biden's unwavering support for Israel poses a significant obstacle. While Washington acknowledges the unsustainability of this stance, overcoming it to influence Israel's "war cabinet" will require more than leaking discontent to the press. In 2024, Biden must shift his focus from providing ideological support to Israel and concentrate on repairing America's political interests and reputation. Failing to do so will hinder his ability to unite his party or establish superiority in the power struggle with Russia and China.

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

Ukraine | Journey of War for Just Peace

On June 23, 2023, the world experienced a great surprise when the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, revolted against the Russian government. Seemingly, the revolt arose due to increasing tension between the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Defense Ministry, especially Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk suffering significant losses in this attack. The outcome of this offensive will determine whether discussions about the end of the war can begin or if the conflict will prolong for years to come.

The participation of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the G-7 summit in Hiroshima holds significant symbolic importance. The choice of Hiroshima sends a message of a nuclear-free world, while Zelenskyy's surprise attendance draws attention to the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. In addition to this emphasis, the explicit support of G-7 countries for Zelenskyy and President Biden's statement on F-16s also stand out as political developments with a deterrent effect on Russia. By addressing the Taiwan issue, a clear political message was conveyed, making this G-7 meeting the most politically significant so far.

Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.

The West's inability to gain support from the global South, its military capacity being weakened, concerns about its inability to handle China's intervention in Taiwan, and the lack of probability of taking back Donbas and Crimea, strengthens the arguments that support for Ukraine should be proportional to a political objective.

Today, we are living in a systemic transition period in which the world is experiencing an international systemic crisis. Deep uncertainty and instability have been dominating the global system. The rivalry between global powers has been intensifying every day. Unfortunately, there is no established international order and no stable relationship between even members of the same alliance. Most hostilities and friendships are temporary; relations between any two states can change quickly.