Today, we are living in a systemic transition period in which the world is experiencing an international systemic crisis. Deep uncertainty and instability have been dominating the global system. The rivalry between global powers has been intensifying every day. Unfortunately, there is no established international order and no stable relationship between even members of the same alliance. Most hostilities and friendships are temporary; relations between any two states can change quickly. This atmosphere causes deep mistrust between states because not only hostile states but also friendly countries, even allies, can pose a threat. We live in a time when the logic of the Melian dialogue dramatizes the negotiations between the Athenians and the Melians before the siege. Therefore, the motto that “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must” dominates the agenda. Today, the stronger occupy the lands of the weak whenever they want. The problem is that not only the so-called hegemon but also the challengers interfere in the internal affairs of any state or violate its sovereignty. For this reason, all states want to take necessary measures to avoid being the target of aggression. While small powers have no other choice but to bandwagon with certain global giants, most middle actors have been trying to increase their resilience and deterrence through military buildup and economic development. Observing the relationship between global powers and middle powers will be interesting. Both sides are trying to take precautionary measures to maximize their national interests. However, the power asymmetry between the stronger and the weaker leads the two sides to take different steps against each other.

Two ways of getting support

From the perspective of global powers, there are two ways to get the support of weak, small or middle powers. The first way is to gain the consent of the fragile state, mostly through military, financial and diplomatic rewards. The stronger may provide a security umbrella for the weaker powers against actual or potential threats or deliver economic aid to people experiencing poverty. The second way is to use direct or indirect force to get the support of the other, mainly through punishment. If the weak state does not submit of its own accord, the strong state will forcibly subjugate it. For regional powers, there are two ways to deter global forces from pursuing unilateral aggressive and expansionist policies. The first way is to prevent global powers from acting against themselves by building their military might. Many middle powers purchase complex weapons and high-tech defense products from different sources and thus diversify their weapon systems. For instance, most Middle Eastern states buy weapons from their traditional partners, such as Western countries, and non-Western countries, such as China. They try to diversify their foreign relations by improving their ties with different global powers, including conflicting ones such as the United States, China and Russia. Small and middle management, who abandoned the policy of putting all eggs in one basket, developed relations with all related states. Otherwise, they may suffer what they must. The stronger powers will never offer any moral justification for their invasions or unilateral actions.

Establishing balance

The second way is to seek a balance of power to enlist the support of other states. Therefore, there is a strong tendency toward regionalization on almost all continents. Small and middle forces in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America have banded together to increase their resilience against the interventionist policies of global powers. Thus, with regionalization efforts, middle actors have decreased the possibility of external intervention. They try to create regional platforms for the resolution of their problems. In principle, they try to solve regional issues with local actors to avoid larger global powers intervening in regional crises since powerful states instrumentalize situations to maximize their national interests. Since the lack of trust or distrust between states peaks in such unstable times, it is not easy to establish stable relationships. As a result, a zero-sum perspective prevails in almost all bilateral and multilateral relations. Moreover, global threats such as climate change, environmental security, food crisis and irregular migration also interfere with states maintaining a cooperative perspective. [Daily Sabah, April 12 2023]