At the 97th anniversary celebration event, Ibrahim Kalın, the head of MIT, underlined very important points. The most important point Kalın drew attention to is that uncertainty is one of the most important risks of today. We are living in a period in which conflicts are increasing, and diversity and technology are beginning to determine all processes. Especially how the international system will transform is very important at this point. Kalın emphasizes that the structures that will establish and sustain new power centers and alliance structures against the unipolar order led by the U.S. have not yet been formed and this situation has led to the emergence of a multiple and fragmented structure in the world. According to Kalın, the closing of the distance between these two structures will make the emergence of new power struggles inevitable in the coming decades. What kind of order will emerge from these power struggles and whether this order will be stable or not remains an important question. According to Kalın, “the alternative to Western-centric conceptions is not and should not be another ethnocentrism.” Behind the geopolitical tensions between the West and the non-Western world is the fact that they have not yet come up with a vision of order on which they can agree. This uncertainty in the international system leads to the diversification of hybrid and asymmetric threats and the emergence of a global crisis of legitimacy. Considering that the crises in Ukraine and Gaza have deepened the crisis of global governance, the most fundamental problem of the international system is the failure to build a new, just and rules-based international system. The fact that Turkish intelligence emphasizes the crisis of international legitimacy to such an extent is important in many respects and should be taken into consideration. This is because the consolidation of an international system that is not based on rules may lead to the deepening of non-traditional security problems that the world faces and the emergence of an anarchic world. Such an environment also increases the challenges faced by intelligence services. Drawing particular attention to Israel’s war campaign in Gaza, Kalın gives a very important reference on the issue of order without rules. “The principle formulated by Imam Ghazali a thousand years ago is still valid today: Everything that exceeds its limit changes into its opposite. Every power, actor and policy that violates the rights of others by exceeding its natural limits is preparing its own end.” While this approach may be difficult for Western states and Israelis to understand, it is clear that the only way to avoid a future dominated by extremism is to build a new rules-based international system. In this respect, it is important that Türkiye’s approach to U.N. reform is shared by the intelligence community.

Turkish intelligence doctrine

Global risks and threats reinforce the fragile, uncertain and insecure nature of the current international system. To protect Türkiye’s sovereignty and independence in an era of multidimensional threats and global vulnerabilities, two elements are at the center of Turkish intelligence’s doctrinal understanding. These are self-sufficiency and deterrence. According to Kalın, the principle of self-sufficiency is a matter of national security and survival in areas of strategic importance. In this sense, intelligence cannot be considered separately from Türkiye’s strategic capabilities. Kalın’s holistic understanding of security is very important at this point because the world can no longer be read in a way that military security alone is sufficient. In this sense, in addition to defense, offensive, technical intelligence and industrial technologies, MIT needs to improve its intelligence capabilities and maximize its strategic intelligence capacity in key areas such as cyber security, climate change-based threats, biological security, energy security, food security and economic security. Another important point underlined by Kalın is that Türkiye should also improve its deterrent capability in the field of intelligence. At this point, the goal of understanding and preventing threats before they emerge underlines again that MIT is one of the most important institutions in terms of Türkiye’s strategic capabilities. According to Kalın, “real power is the power you do not have to use, and the most embodied form of this is deterrence capability.” Increasing tensions and disagreements between states cause intelligence organizations to become more prominent in diplomacy. Examples such as Syria, Iraq, Libya and Karabakh have shown the importance of intelligence diplomacy for Türkiye. In this sense, intelligence diplomacy stands out as an important pillar of the Turkish intelligence doctrine. The intelligence diplomacy, which was frequently observed during Fidan’s tenure as the head of MIT, will continue to increase under Kalın. According to Kalın, “Asymmetric and hybrid threats, multi-layered relationship networks and new alliance structures make intelligence diplomacy more critical. In this fragile environment of uncertainty, intelligence agencies must act by deepening their process analyses while reading the big picture correctly.” In a period of increasing global risks and uncertainties, the functions and roles performed by intelligence must be multi-layered to both neutralize current threats and prepare for the future. The future of the Middle East after the ongoing war in Gaza, the risk of conflict arising from the U.S.-China rivalry, and destructive technological revolutions show that Türkiye’s intelligence capability is as important as military deterrence and effective diplomacy. [Daily Sabah, January 12, 2024]