There are only a handful of real players and actors, namely global and regional powers, that determine or influence international politics. While global powers have interests of global proportions, regional powers work to influence their respective regions. Most states play a limited role, if that, in international politics. A state is either on the table or at the table in international platforms and negotiations. In other words, if a state is a real player in the international political arena, it is at the table. That is, it actively participates in the negotiations and thus contributes to the efforts to resolve international crises. However, if a state is weak, it is on the table. That is, its destiny is determined by others. It is viewed as more of a meal by those seated at the table. It is not an actor, but a subject of international negotiations. Unfortunately, most weak and small states are on the table, not at the table. Powerful states instrumentalize them in their negotiations with other states and in the process of maximizing their national interests. Global and regional powers are willing to sell out their allies when they have to. The selling of an ally generally depends on the cost that the powerful ally can bear or on the benefit it expects from selling it. Therefore, weak and small states try to get rid of this dependent relationship, to end political instability, to avoid further devastation and to diversify their relations.

The dependence dilemma

Most of the ex-Soviet republics have been experiencing the dilemma of being caught between two dependencies, Western and Russian. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West attempted to incorporate some of these countries, including Ukraine and Georgia, into the Western alliance. Some states have experienced colored revolutions during the first half of the first decade of the 21st century. This first phase was won by the West. Moscow reacted in the second phase and showed that it would not allow the Western alliance to control Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Nowadays, Ukraine is once again the subject of a serious international crisis between Russia and the Western alliance. Unfortunately, both Western countries, namely the United States and the Western European countries, and the Russian Federation are playing a strategic game in the Ukrainian territories. The country has remained a source of friction between the two power centers, both of which have certain expectations regarding the future of the state. Neither side tries to maximize the interest of the Ukrainian state; both sides want to make something out of the crisis for themselves. While the Western countries have been trying to incorporate Ukraine into the Western alliance and thus prevent Russia's potential westward expansion, Moscow has been trying to deter the Western camp from including Ukraine, which is considered part of its near abroad. Since Ukraine occupies a geostrategic position between the two sides, it seems that they are ready to pay any price in their confrontations over the country.

The three dynamics

It is very difficult, if not impossible, for the Western coalition to wage a war against Russia in the event it occupies Ukraine; because, compared with the Russians, the Western alliance is less prepared and more vulnerable. First of all, China has been rising as the major challenger against the Western hegemony. Since a strong Russian and Chinese alliance is the worst-case scenario for the West, Western countries do not want to alienate Russia further. Second, compared with the Cold War period, the Western alliance is not solid and strong enough. The trans-Atlantic alliance lost its strength due to a series of developments in the West, including America's unilateral approach to policies, Brexit and the French uneasiness with Anglo-Saxon states. Third, the Western coalition has recently lost its moral superiority. For example, the U.S. that recognized the occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights by the Israeli state cannot oppose the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia. In the end, Ukraine may not consider the U.S. a trustworthy supporter. Therefore, it seems that Ukraine will be put on the table for the Western alliance and Russia to bargain over. As an exit strategy, Ukraine should try to shake its dependence on global powers and improve its relations with regional powers so it too can have a seat at the negotiation table. As long as it remains a front between the two sides, its sovereignty and territories will continue to be chipped away. [Daily Sabah, January 19, 2022]