Playing old politics in the new game is dangerous

The world system has undergone a large-scale transition for the last two decades. The ultimate victory of the United States declared after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 lasted only for a decade. In spite of giving an effective answer to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. has been unable to maximize its national interests at the global scale and provide international peace and stability.

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Playing old politics in the new game is dangerous
Türkiye and the West A posteriori positive-sum ballad

Türkiye and the West: A posteriori positive-sum ballad

With the manifestation of the national will evident, it is now time for Türkiye and the West to reframe the post-election concordance path, create a new road map, resume economic cooperation and revisit the political common ground. The approach should focus on a renewed consensus on economic and political collaborations. They will undoubtedly be better off with more cooperation, rather than competition or just a loose liaison. The political (even ideological) differences should not cloud coherence, the ability to cooperate, and post-ballot collaboration.

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Azerbaijan earlier this week.

One of the most important transformations of the Turkish political system was realized after the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016. Türkiye has successfully restructured its domestic political system and redefined the responsibilities of many state institutions. Among others, foreign policy actors were diversified. Many governmental institutions such as the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) and the Presidency of Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB), have begun to play effective roles in the field of foreign policy.

The results of last week's Turkish election runoff came in sooner than anticipated. By 7pm in Istanbul (4pm GMT), it was clear that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had won another term in office with a little over 52 percent of the vote.

President Erdoğan has received 52.18% of the vote, while his rival Kılıçdaroğlu received 47.82%. Thus, President Erdoğan has won over 10 elections – including presidential elections, parliamentarian elections, local elections and referendums – that he entered since 2002. This is a record-high number in the history of modern Türkiye, which made Erdoğan the longest-serving statesman in the history of the Turkish Republic.

Erdogan's election victory: a new era in Turkish foreign policy

Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.

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Erdogan's election victory a new era in Turkish foreign policy
Türkiye elections What does Erdogan's victory mean for the country's

Türkiye elections: What does Erdogan's victory mean for the country's future?

Sunday’s election in Türkiye ended with yet another victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The outcome did not catch any close followers of Turkish politics by surprise. 

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Erdogan will enter Sunday’s election with an advantage. The fact that his People’s Alliance successfully claimed a parliamentary majority on 14 May is another significant advantage.

What international media have dubbed “the world’s most important election in 2023” is less than a week away. Whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins will have wide-ranging implications.

Türkiye will hold a historic election that could influence both regional and global power balances. Under the leadership of President Erdogan over the past 20 years, Türkiye has faced significant challenges and achieved important successes. When looking at Türkiye's role in the international arena, we have seen that it has been managing regional conflicts and global power struggles with its own foreign policy will. The election will have critical results not only for domestic political developments, the economy and security, but also for foreign policy.

The goal, of course, is to come up with some policy suggestions, provide a fresh perspective and sift out a road map for the post-election period. After all, Türkiye is, indeed, treading a fine line between liberal and interventionist policies. Yet, it has not yet been able to fully benefit from political stability and the transformation into a presidential system.

The Western media doubling down on its anti-Erdoğan campaign in the home stretch is hardly surprising. In addition to The Economist, which went well beyond endorsing the opposition candidate in Türkiye’s presidential race, publications like Foreign Policy, Le Point, L’Express, Der Spiegel and The Washington Post have been notably involved in the Turkish elections.

Considering the devastating effects of new-generation weapons, global powers cannot launch direct wars against each other. Therefore, they prefer to engage in indirect battles, as the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, did during the Cold War. Their proxies fight each other; they control the tide of the war from behind closed doors by procuring military equipment and by providing economic and financial assistance to wage war.

Although the Western-American global hegemony is obsolete, no non-Western state wants to claim the global hegemony, mainly due to the burden and responsibility that comes with this claim.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will run against each other in the 2023 presidential race in Türkiye. It will all boil down to one of the two leading candidates winning over undecided voters. That’s why I believe the final weeks to be extremely important and the race to be head-to-head.

Today, we are living in a systemic transition period in which the world is experiencing an international systemic crisis. Deep uncertainty and instability have been dominating the global system. The rivalry between global powers has been intensifying every day. Unfortunately, there is no established international order and no stable relationship between even members of the same alliance. Most hostilities and friendships are temporary; relations between any two states can change quickly.

China brokered a historical agreement on March 10 that aims to restore the conflictual relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The trilateral joint statement was signed by Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid bin Muhammed Al Aiban, and Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office. Considering its influence in the region and international politics, this mediation effort and agreement is a diplomatic victory for China.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been one of the most supportive politicians towards Israel throughout his political career, recently had to openly express his displeasure with Netanyahu after trying to convince him to abandon his judicial reform plans, which he ultimately failed to do. During the events in Israel, the Biden administration's initial response was to avoid direct criticism and call for compromise. While it was not expected for Washington to harshly criticize Israel, the tone and content of President Biden's statements indicated the depth of his discomfort.

The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Assad in Damascus and delivered humanitarian aid to Syria through the regime. The day after the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister al-Nahyan, who is trying to lead the normalization process with Syria, Assad allowed UN aid teams to cross into opposition-controlled areas of Syria. It is no secret that many Arab countries, including the UAE and Egypt, prefer normalizing ties with the Syrian regime. Although the American administration has expressed its opposition to normalization efforts with the Assad regime in the region, there is no indication of serious pressure being exerted on this issue.

Natural disasters, wars, and economic collapse tend to seriously undermine social order and make it impossible to address even people’s most basic needs. During such periods, it becomes difficult for communities to feed themselves, find shelter, receive medical attention, relocate, and communicate with others. Individuals and communities have provided emergency assistance to such individuals, without expecting anything in return, to address basic needs like food, shelter, and medical treatment throughout history.