The latest edition of Insight Turkey has been released, featuring a special focus on the Turkic World. This issue includes four insightful commentaries and four in-depth research articles, delving into various aspects of the Turkic World. Additionally, it offers four articles on other topics, notably discussing the Palestinian issue in the context of the October 7 operation and examining Türkiye-Russia energy relations.

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

The year 2023 began relatively strong for the U.S. in terms of its claim to global leadership in foreign policy. However, due to a strategic blind spot in the context of the Gaza conflict, it ended on a disappointing note. In the upcoming year, it is not difficult to predict that the Biden administration will attempt to diminish this loss of reputation. However, President Biden's unwavering support for Israel poses a significant obstacle. While Washington acknowledges the unsustainability of this stance, overcoming it to influence Israel's "war cabinet" will require more than leaking discontent to the press. In 2024, Biden must shift his focus from providing ideological support to Israel and concentrate on repairing America's political interests and reputation. Failing to do so will hinder his ability to unite his party or establish superiority in the power struggle with Russia and China.

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

The year 2011, the beginning of the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has been considered by most observers of the Middle East as a turning point in the history of the region. The process of mass demonstrations, insurgencies and revolutions is generally known as the Arab Spring. It is claimed that the region has entered into a new epoch with this sweeping wave of changes.

Ahead of the March 2024 municipal elections, the ongoing Good Party (IP) crisis continues to capture everyone’s attention. That party’s chairwoman, Meral Akşener, recently accused the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, of "cowardice." Several parliamentarians are rumored to be on the brink of leaving the IP over those comments.

The Biden administration's performance succumbed to ideological perspectives and strategic blindness.

With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election “freely” and “individually” encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.

Describing 2023 as a relatively quiet year for Turkish foreign policy would exclude the events of Oct. 7 and their aftermath. The trend of normalization, ongoing since the general elections in May, played a pivotal role in determining the overarching course of foreign policy. Despite unresolved issues, emphasis was placed on minimizing potential conflicts and prioritizing common interests. In the post-election period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a regional foreign policy centered on Gulf country relations, making the economy a primary focus. To mitigate security risks from Syria, ministerial-level talks with the Assad regime were initiated. Noteworthy strides were made in normalizing relations with Israel and Egypt. Erdoğan’s robust support for Azerbaijan in liberating Karabakh bolstered Türkiye’s status as a geopolitical player in 2023.

The Climate Change | COP28 and Beyond

Ankara and Budapest have developed a close partnership in many fields since the Council’s inaugural meeting in 2013. Indeed, they elevated their bilateral relations to the level of advanced strategic partnership.

The recent decision by the Colorado Supreme Court regarding Trump has the potential to shape the outcome of the November 2024 presidential elections. Due to his support for the events of January 6th, where he was involved in an uprising against the state, Trump may not be able to get his name on the ballot as a presidential candidate in this state. The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits individuals who have engaged in insurrection against the government from holding federal office. While this provision has not been enforced for a long time, the Colorado Supreme Court has revived the debate. As the legal process heads to the Supreme Court, the question of whether the courts or the voters should determine the fate of the American president has resurfaced.

The current Western governments have been giving full and unconditional support to Israel’s oppressive policies and atrocities. Pro-Israeli Western governments do not take into account their citizens’ views on the latest developments in Palestine. They prefer to support the Zionists but not their people. However, they know that their pro-Israeli positions damage their relations with other countries.

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Türkiye-Greece Summit | Sailing Through Positive Agenda

On the Eve of a New Century | Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Part II

On the Eve of a New Century | Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Part I