The ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 7,000 lives, has the potential to mark a significant turning point in Middle East geopolitics. Israel’s contemplated ground offensive introduces a range of dynamics that suggest the conflict between Israel and Hamas will extend beyond Gaza. Historically, these conflicts followed a familiar pattern: Hamas attacks against Israel, Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, a cease-fire, and a return to the status quo. However, the events of Oct. 7 strongly indicate a departure from this pattern, with Israel possibly establishing a lasting presence in at least the northern sector of Gaza, thereby altering the status quo.

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The argument that Hamas bears responsibility for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, as put forward by Israel, has not convinced the American public. Unlike previous operations and wars, Israel's attempts to justify targeting civilians in Gaza and its insensitive remarks about civilian casualties have undermined its public relations campaign. Faced with the perception that Israel is willing to risk American citizens held by Hamas, the Biden administration has intensified efforts to delay a ground operation in Gaza. While criticisms of Israel from the progressive wing within the Democratic Party may not be enough to change the Biden administration's full support for Israel, they do indicate an increase in public sensitivity to the humanitarian situation, particularly regarding the need for Gazan civilians to reach safety.

The non-Western world viewed U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel as unconditional support for that country’s heavy bombardment and blockade of the Gaza Strip. Blaming Hamas – “the other team” – for the killing of more than 500 Palestinians at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital, the U.S. President neither shared any evidence nor talked about forming an international committee to investigate what happened.

As the 14th day of the Israeli offensive in Gaza unfolds, the humanitarian crisis associated with this conflict continues to intensify. The unwavering support from the United States and a significant contingent of Western nations for Israel’s aggressive military campaign has created an exceptional situation, allowing Israel’s actions to go unchecked. The adoption of collective punishment as a war strategy by both Israel and the U.S., with their resolute backing, threatens to destabilize the region and jeopardize global security on an unprecedented scale.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has been underway for 12 days. Preparing for a ground operation, the Israeli army kills hundreds of Palestinians every single day. The strict blockade of Gaza, which prevents the delivery of humanitarian aid, has already rendered hospitals in the besieged Palestinian enclave unable to operate. As relief supplies pile up in Egypt, the tragedy in Gaza worsens. The following remark by Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), best summarizes what is happening: “Gaza is being strangled, and it seems that the world right now has lost its humanity.”

In President Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statements by Secretary of State Blinken during his shuttle diplomacy in the region highlighted how uncomfortable regional countries are with Israel's attacks. Biden's meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian leader Abbas indicate his reluctance to provide Israel with unwavering, unconditional support and his consideration of regional dynamics. Despite his initial statement of unconditional support for Israel, it could be argued that he insists on the condition that it does not escalate into a regional conflict.

Since the very first moments of the latest Hamas attacks against Israel and the Israeli attacks against the Gaza Strip, the global Western powers have declared their unconditional support for the Israeli security forces in the form of military, political, diplomatic and economic support. After the latest wave of the escalation of violence and tension in the Palestinian lands, the Israeli side and its Western allies started to blame and demonize Hamas and other Palestinian actors as the only responsible actors in the cycle of violence. As usual, no big Western power, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, has tried to hold Israel responsible for the violence committed against innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip (or in the West Bank).

Last Friday, Israel asked the United Nations to relocate 1.1 million Palestinians to the south of Gaza within 24 hours. Although the U.N. warned that such an evacuation was impossible and likely to entail devastating humanitarian issues, the Israeli army continues to prepare for a ground operation after a weeklong heavy bombardment. Driving the Palestinians to the south is widely seen as Israel’s multistep plan to completely eliminate Hamas’ entire capacity – including its tunnels. Experts argue that Tel Aviv made that decision to make up an excuse to kill civilians and reach its actual goal of making Gaza unhabitable. There is talk of the possibility of Israel forcing all Palestinians to move from Gaza, which it has blockaded for 16 years, to Egypt. It goes without saying that such a development would not only put Egypt in an extremely difficult position but also trigger humanitarian crises and radicalization in the region. Let us recall that the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, along with its decision to turn a blind eye to the humanitarian tragedy in Syria, helped various radical organizations to emerge or grow stronger.

Former President Trump's Middle East policy was extremely pro-Israel. Trump declared Jerusalem as Israel's capital to satisfy his evangelical base, arguing that Israel could normalize relations in the region without solving the Palestinian issue through the Abraham Accords. He presented the "Deal of the Century," a plan largely based on Israel's priorities, promising economic investments for Palestine.

Hamas’ surprising attack on Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Israel’s ongoing and disproportionate military operation in Gaza, has the potential to become a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Predicting the extent of Israel’s incursion into Gaza remains uncertain, and Hamas faces immense challenges in maintaining its resistance.

Hamas initiated a large incursion into some Israeli cities last weekend, which has led to a new cycle of violence in Palestine. So far, around 900 Israelis have been killed and more than 2,600 people wounded. In addition, Hamas has taken more than 100 people, including many soldiers, as hostages. On the Palestinian side, about 700 people were killed by the Israeli security forces, and several thousands of people were wounded.

Israeli Palestinian Conflict

The Qassam Brigades launched a comprehensive attack on Saturday, causing the Israel-Palestine conflict to recapture the world’s attention anew after long years. Initially shocked by the assault, Israel has been bombarding the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “our response to the Gaza attacks will change the Middle East” as his government’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, described the scope of the Israeli counterattack as follows: “Everything will be cut off – no electricity, no water, no food, no fuel. We are fighting human-like animals, and we will act accordingly.”

Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.

The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire set the stage for Türkiye’s evolving foreign policy in the Middle East, a region deeply intertwined with its historical legacy. From the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 to the rise of the AK Party in the early 2000s, Türkiye’s approach has been marked by pragmatism, adaptability, and a keen understanding of regional dynamics. The nation's foreign policy has oscillated between neutrality, revisionism, proactivity, reactivity, assertiveness, autonomy, and diplomacy, reflecting both its historical ties and strategic imperatives. As Türkiye continues to navigate the complexities of the Middle East, its foreign policy remains a testament to its enduring resilience and strategic acumen. By tracing its roots and evolution, the article sheds light on the myriad factors that have shaped its course, offering insights into the evolving nature of Türkiye’s multifaceted and adaptive foreign policy and role in the Middle East over the last 100 years (1923-2023).