In the presidential race, Trump demonstrated that he would not take an ideological stance on the abortion issue, which Biden wanted to make a central agenda. Instead, he refused to be cornered on this issue. Conservative Republican groups expected Trump to support a law that would impose abortion restrictions across the country. However, Trump, having seen how supporting Trumpian candidates who advocated for abortion bans hindered their electoral success in midterm elections, did not want to face the same fate.

The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu persists. Despite the White House emphasizing that the decision is not binding and that there are no changes in policy, Netanyahu canceled the visit of the delegation he planned to send to Washington immediately after the UNGA decision. The fact that the Biden administration, which has been diplomatically protecting Israel with its veto power since October 7th, chose to abstain this time suggests that the crisis in bilateral relations has reached its peak. While Netanyahu may lean towards Trump, who has advocated for ending the conflict, Trump's remarks have increased American pressure.

Friday marked the fifth day of Ramadan. Unfortunately, there is still no cease-fire in Gaza, and Israel continues to kill Palestinians waiting for food supplies. Earlier this week, Israeli troops killed six Palestinians and injured 83 others as they waited in line to receive a bag of flour. That was not the first time, and it won’t be the last.

For the past five months, Israel has been targeting the innocent people of Gaza, with the United States and most Western governments continuing to mobilize their resources to support Israel’s brutal attacks against Gaza. By now, the attacks have become Israel’s longest intensive military operation against the Palestinians. On the one hand, while the Palestinian people are at their most vulnerable position and facing genocide, hundreds of millions of people around the world are chanting their just cause. On the other hand, as Israel continues its longest and most brutal attacks against the Palestinians, it has lost legitimacy not only in the eyes of the international community but also in the eyes of most of its supporters. It seems that this is the main paradox of post-Oct. 7.

The world was not in good shape on the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A quick look at the most recent developments alone would suffice to appreciate that we are entering a period of fragmentation and high risks.

The recent comments by special prosecutor Robert Hur, appointed by the US Department of Justice, describing President Biden as a 'senile, well-intentioned, elderly man' reignited the debate about Biden's age. Biden's enduring image of being elderly and lacking dynamism seems to be his biggest disadvantage in the November elections. Holding the title of the oldest sitting president in American history, Biden will break his own record as the oldest presidential candidate in the November elections. The fact that Trump, at 77, is running against the 81-year-old Biden will leave American voters with the choice of electing their oldest president. While some argue that age discrimination is unfair, Biden's advanced age has become a significant point of discussion that could influence the outcome of the election. In addition to Biden's memory issues, his controlled and brief appearances in public, contrasted with Trump's more dynamic demeanor, present a serious handicap.

Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as “obsolete” and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.

Internal political disputes in the United States have reached a new phase, jeopardizing aid flow to Ukraine. Republicans, who announced they would not support aid to Ukraine until border security is ensured, deemed Biden's concessions on border security insufficient. More precisely, they stalled the issue at the behest of Trump to potentially exploit the immigration crisis in the presidential elections. Especially after this strategy was accepted in the House of Representatives, it was rejected by Senate Republicans. With the passage of a $95 billion aid package, the Senate shifted the responsibility of aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to Trump-aligned Republicans. If the House of Representatives rejects this aid package under the pretext of the border crisis, it will mark a new phase in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Avoiding a choice between "war continuation" and "diplomatic solution" until the November elections and managing the current situation should not come as a surprise.

The remarks made by Trump, who is widely expected to run for president as the Republican Party candidate, regarding NATO once again underscored how fragile America's claim to global leadership is. Trump threatened to pressure certain NATO member countries to increase their military spending or face consequences. By stating that Russia could do whatever it wants with these countries, Trump escalated his anti-NATO rhetoric to new heights during his presidency. Trump's longstanding questioning of the concept of collective defense by the United States and his failure to protect a NATO member country practically spells the end of this military alliance. The loss of the deterrent effect of NATO's Article 5-based collective defense concept would not only undermine the alliance's guarantees but also signify the end of America's leadership within the Western alliance. As America engages in a global power struggle with Russia and China, it will become increasingly difficult for the country to conduct this struggle within the Western alliance without establishing unity.

Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson's attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson's move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson's lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump's reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.

The killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by pro-Iran militias via UAV strikes initiated a new escalation in the escalating regional conflict. Since October 7th, concerns about regional warfare seemed obsolete. We previously noted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's attempt to expand the Gaza conflict regionally and entangle the US in conflict with Iran. The Jordan attack partially succeeded in these efforts. Over the past week, the US conducted military operations in the region, signaling a response.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits the Middle East this weekend for the fifth time since the Oct. 7 attack.

Against the backdrop of Israel's massacre in Gaza, attention has been shifting to Iran. Following the bombardment of the Houthis by the United States and the United Kingdom for disrupting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iran and Pakistan experienced an escalation, with both sides firing missiles over terrorism. Moreover, Israel killed five members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps in Damascus last weekend, resuming its past operations against the Iranian presence in Syria. The seeming purpose of such strikes is to stop Iran from sending military aid to the Axis of Resistance – namely Hezbollah and Hamas. More important, however, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to ensuring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's regionwide spillover – which contradicts the Biden administration.

We're talking about the possibility of Israel's attacks on Gaza triggering a regional war after October 7. Recent developments actually indicate that we are already in the midst of a regional war. However, the fluctuating intensity of such conflicts and the fact that the parties involved are not always clearly defined make it difficult to label it as a regional war. The evolution of warfare between countries, occurring in complex ways across different arenas and activating the capacities of various parties, has made traditional, all-encompassing wars increasingly rare. Many countries now prefer proxy wars due to their lower cost, lower risk, and deniability.

Important parameter for guarantor model is Israeli government and its expected transformation, which is highly probable in the short term after its clear failures

The Biden administration's performance succumbed to ideological perspectives and strategic blindness.

During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated the Biden administration's support but conveyed the message that operations should be more limited. Austin, who previously stated that Israel faced the risk of 'strategic defeat,' is believed to be delivering the message that winning the war in urban combat requires gaining civilian support. The U.S. administration reportedly urged Israel to reduce the intensity of operations by the end of the year and increase humanitarian aid passages. While continuing support for Israel, the Biden administration seems to be trying to limit the political cost generated by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.