In the first debate before the November elections, President Biden's performance against Trump could be a game-changer for the race. The Trump campaign has succeeded in raising doubts about Biden's age, awareness, and vitality, and has also sought to create controversy around the format and neutrality of the CNN-hosted debate. If Biden performs well, the Trump camp will likely dismiss it as biased due to CNN's perceived favoritism towards Democrats. However, if Biden makes any gaffes or appears mentally unsteady, they plan to exploit this to the fullest. It wouldn't be surprising to see Trump continue his classic political style of declaring victory regardless of the outcome. While a strong performance from Biden won't end Trump's campaign, any doubts about Biden's mental sharpness will make it much harder for his campaign to recover.
BIDEN ON THE DEFENSIVE
Biden's support has been at its lowest levels for a while, and Trump appears to be leading by a point or two in swing states, albeit within the margin of error. This context has pushed the Biden campaign to accept this debate so early. Despite neither party's candidate being officially confirmed yet, this debate marks a first. The Biden campaign hopes that a strong performance will boost support for the President at the party convention, addressing dissatisfaction and unrest among Democrats. They also aim to counteract the negative morale among Democrats caused by media reports of Trump's lead and to rally support around Biden early. They believe that any poor performance can be overshadowed by subsequent debates in the fall.
Beyond questioning Biden's mental acuity, which is Trump's biggest advantage, he also holds the upper hand on issues like inflation and the border crisis. Trump will remind voters of the economic conditions before the pandemic, when his tax reforms pleased the business sector by reducing taxes for large corporations. While Biden has focused on certain critical sectors and limited economic competition with China to high-tech areas, this shared policy may not be a major debate topic. However, Biden might bring up Trump's tax cuts for big corporations to appeal to middle and lower classes, though this risks alienating big businesses and upper classes to Trump's side.
Economically, Biden's biggest disadvantage is the ongoing inflation rate, which remains above three percent. Despite positive economic indicators, cumulative inflation nearing twenty percent over the last three and a half years weakens Biden's position. The economic impact of the pandemic, more acutely felt during Biden's term, coupled with his administration's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus packages, has fueled inflation. Although employment and growth rates look healthy, high inflation and the Federal Reserve's high interest rates to combat it keep living and credit costs high for middle and lower classes. This puts Biden at a disadvantage, as Trump can point to the low inflation and near-zero credit costs during his term.
BORDER CRISIS AND DICTATORSHIP DISCUSSIONS
Biden's attempts to reverse Trump's anti-immigrant policies have led to a significant influx of refugees. Recently, Biden has taken steps closer to Trump’s stance to mitigate the political cost of the border crisis. Trump will highlight the border crisis as a major issue, describing it as an "invasion," while Biden's defense will focus on Republican refusal to cooperate on reform. While Biden may point out Trump’s lack of constructive action, explaining the insufficient control over border entries will be challenging. Trump will leverage the increase in asylum requests, from under half a million annually during his term to over two million under Biden, to his advantage. Along with high inflation, Biden's defensive stance on the border crisis will compel him to go on the offensive on other issues.
Biden will likely bring up Trump’s insinuations about suspending democracy, and highlight Trump's criminal convictions. Trump has partially succeeded in framing the hush money case as politically motivated, portraying himself as a victim of Democratic prosecutors and judges, and will likely bring up Hunter Biden. While the Biden campaign will emphasize the risk of Trump leading the country down an undemocratic path, economic issues being the primary concern for voters complicates the reformation of an anti-Trump coalition. The effectiveness of Biden’s accusations of Trump’s authoritarian tendencies during the debate remains uncertain.
Biden managed to temporarily alleviate concerns about his mental sharpness with his performance in the State of the Union address earlier this year, and he will aim to do the same in the CNN debate. However, past incidents where he appeared frozen in public and international summits have resurfaced these concerns. On Thursday evening, Biden must appear physically and mentally vigorous in the debate with Trump, or else policy issues might take a backseat. Calls for a different candidate before the party convention could intensify within the Democratic Party. Although Trump enters the debate with a psychological advantage, he still needs to appeal to independent voters outside his base, requiring a more moderate and restrained demeanor. If Biden performs very well, Trump might lose discipline and harm his own campaign. Regardless of the debate outcome, there is still enough time until the November elections for both campaigns to recover from any setbacks. However, Biden's more precarious position in the polls raises expectations and increases the risk of fatal errors.
