A NATO summit in the shadow of the Biden controversy

Although Washington was specially chosen for the 75th anniversary, Americans, and even the participants, were focused more on U.S. President Joe Biden and whether he would forget things during his speech.

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A NATO summit in the shadow of the Biden controversy
Democrats' Biden Dilemma

Democrats' Biden Dilemma

American politics are experiencing more activity than they have in a long time. While the political earthquake caused by President Biden's debate performance continues, his campaign's unequivocal statement of "I am absolutely not withdrawing" indicates his resistance to calls to withdraw from the race in the coming days. Details reported in the press suggest that Biden's family and close circle recommend that he continue in the race. This group, attempting to dismiss the debate performance as a mere mishap, argues that Biden has overcome past challenges and will overcome this one to defeat Trump. However, this time, the problem Biden must overcome is not external challenges but rather his own health issues, making it unlikely he can convince voters from this point onward.

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In a period when there was doubt whether Biden would even agree to debate Trump, he committed to three debates, with the first scheduled for June before the candidates were officially confirmed. This reflected anxiety within the Biden campaign. Despite positive economic signals, Biden was losing ground due to inflation and immigration issues, and struggled to dispel concerns about his age and mental acuity. To project confidence and counter claims that he was afraid to debate Trump, the Biden campaign insisted on a debate format without an audience.

The presidential election in the United States has entered a new phase after the first TV debate between the two candidates, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, and President Joe Biden, the candidate of the Democrat Party. The two candidates have clashed over many issues, including foreign policy, immigration and the Palestinian-Israeli question. After the TV debate, both the American public and the world public have discussed many dimensions of the face-off. It is clear that the debate has revealed a leadership crisis in the U.S., which will have implications for the world system.

In the first debate before the November elections, President Biden's performance against Trump could be a game-changer for the race. The Trump campaign has succeeded in raising doubts about Biden's age, awareness, and vitality, and has also sought to create controversy around the format and neutrality of the CNN-hosted debate. If Biden performs well, the Trump camp will likely dismiss it as biased due to CNN's perceived favoritism towards Democrats. However, if Biden makes any gaffes or appears mentally unsteady, they plan to exploit this to the fullest. It wouldn't be surprising to see Trump continue his classic political style of declaring victory regardless of the outcome. While a strong performance from Biden won't end Trump's campaign, any doubts about Biden's mental sharpness will make it much harder for his campaign to recover.

The European Parliament election results indicate a rise in support for center-right and far-right candidates. Pro-European Union groups, which hold the majority in the parliament, saw the biggest losses among liberals and greens. This shift suggests that Europe will inevitably lean more towards right-wing policies in the coming period. Ignoring the rise of the far-right and persisting with left and liberal policies will only strengthen the right, making a shift towards more right-leaning politics by the center inevitable. Similarly, in American politics, the political cost of left and liberal policies has been bolstering Trump, leading Biden to adopt more centrist and right-leaning policies as the elections approach. While these rightward shifts may provide short-term solutions, it is clear that without a comprehensive political agenda, they will be insufficient to curb the rise of the right.

Is Biden's effort to reach young Black voters in vain?

President Biden visited Michigan and Georgia last weekend to strengthen support among Black voters. Winning these two swing states is crucial for Biden, and Black voters could significantly influence the results in these areas. Recent polls have shown a relative decline in Biden's support among young Black voters, prompting his campaign to reach out to these groups early. Polls indicate that Trump's support among Black voters under 50 is rising, and the race is tight in swing states like Michigan. Dissatisfaction with Biden's economic policies and his handling of the Gaza conflict poses a significant challenge for him.

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Is Biden's effort to reach young Black voters in vain
Hamas' acceptance of ceasefire and Israel's Rafah operation

Hamas' acceptance of ceasefire and Israel's Rafah operation

Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doha for negotiations. Additionally, they indicated that the Rafah operation would proceed as planned, showing no intention to heed Washington's demands. Despite CIA Director Bill Burns being in the region for the Doha talks and the Biden administration's clear opposition to the Rafah operation, the Netanyahu government shows no signs of backing down. Reports of the Biden administration halting arms shipments to Israel, thus delaying Netanyahu's Rafah operation, had made Hamas' acceptance of the ceasefire a critical turning point. However, Netanyahu's efforts to both continue and expand the conflict from the outset pose the biggest obstacle to ceasefire efforts.

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"It's important that you save your vote for the November election ... voting this Tuesday only enables the Republicans in their quest to elect Donald Trump again." This is how a voice message allegedly from U.S. President Joe Biden reached various voters in New Hampshire before the presidential primary elections.

In the presidential race, Trump demonstrated that he would not take an ideological stance on the abortion issue, which Biden wanted to make a central agenda. Instead, he refused to be cornered on this issue. Conservative Republican groups expected Trump to support a law that would impose abortion restrictions across the country. However, Trump, having seen how supporting Trumpian candidates who advocated for abortion bans hindered their electoral success in midterm elections, did not want to face the same fate.

Social media seems to have come to the rescue for Trump, who's eyeing a return to the presidential race and grappling with financial woes due to recent hefty court fines. In a case brought by New York prosecutor Letitia James, Trump was hit with a record $454 million fine, but he couldn't come up with the necessary bond to prevent his assets from being seized during the appeals process. After the court accepted a $175 million bond and granted additional time, Trump, who owns 60% of the Truth Social platform, saw it go public on the Nasdaq exchange on Tuesday. Within a week, the company, traded under the symbol DJT, experienced around a 70% increase, reaching a market value of $8 billion and effectively adding about $4.5 billion to Trump's net worth on paper. Although Trump won't be able to sell his shares for six months due to stock market rules, he can potentially use them as collateral to secure the required bond from insurance companies.

In American elections, especially in swing states, the turnout of party voters is crucial. Trump, while seeking to win over independent voters against Biden, also needs to court Republican voters. Haley's announcement of withdrawing from the race and not endorsing Trump in her speech aimed to remind the party's internal opposition that cannot be easily ignored. Haley indicated this by stating that Trump would "make an effort to win the votes of those who didn't vote for him." Despite the knowledge that Trump would comfortably win on Super Tuesday and secure the party nomination, a quarter of voters in many states expressed their dissatisfaction by voting for Haley. Haley's ability to garner significant support without spending substantial amounts on campaign ads last week demonstrates the presence of a considerable number of people dissatisfied with Trump's candidacy.

In the recent primary elections held in Michigan, a state where Arab and Muslim voters could have a critical impact on the November 2024 presidential race, a clear message was sent to Biden regarding Palestine. Michigan, known as a swing state, saw Trump win over Clinton by a narrow margin of 11,000 votes in 2016. In this week's Democratic Party primary elections, the fact that over 100,000 voters opted for the 'uncommitted' option against Biden constitutes a critical warning to the President. The highly effective 'Dump Biden' campaign launched before the primaries was evidently impactful. Despite Biden's attempts to address the Palestinian backlash with some statements to the press before the primaries, it was revealed that these remarks did not suffice to appease the Palestinian sentiment within the party. So far, Biden has been gauging the reactions of young people, African Americans, and Muslims within the party through polls, but the results of the Michigan primaries indicate a shift in voting behavior among these demographics.

The recent comments by special prosecutor Robert Hur, appointed by the US Department of Justice, describing President Biden as a 'senile, well-intentioned, elderly man' reignited the debate about Biden's age. Biden's enduring image of being elderly and lacking dynamism seems to be his biggest disadvantage in the November elections. Holding the title of the oldest sitting president in American history, Biden will break his own record as the oldest presidential candidate in the November elections. The fact that Trump, at 77, is running against the 81-year-old Biden will leave American voters with the choice of electing their oldest president. While some argue that age discrimination is unfair, Biden's advanced age has become a significant point of discussion that could influence the outcome of the election. In addition to Biden's memory issues, his controlled and brief appearances in public, contrasted with Trump's more dynamic demeanor, present a serious handicap.

Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as “obsolete” and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.

The remarks made by Trump, who is widely expected to run for president as the Republican Party candidate, regarding NATO once again underscored how fragile America's claim to global leadership is. Trump threatened to pressure certain NATO member countries to increase their military spending or face consequences. By stating that Russia could do whatever it wants with these countries, Trump escalated his anti-NATO rhetoric to new heights during his presidency. Trump's longstanding questioning of the concept of collective defense by the United States and his failure to protect a NATO member country practically spells the end of this military alliance. The loss of the deterrent effect of NATO's Article 5-based collective defense concept would not only undermine the alliance's guarantees but also signify the end of America's leadership within the Western alliance. As America engages in a global power struggle with Russia and China, it will become increasingly difficult for the country to conduct this struggle within the Western alliance without establishing unity.

Representative Mike Johnson, the majority leader of the House of Representatives, became the latest political casualty of former President Trump this week with two significant defeats. Johnson's attempt to remove Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas failed due to three Republican representatives voting against it. Subsequently, Johnson's move to vote on a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel also failed with opposing votes from both parties. Johnson's lack of political leadership experience is among the significant reasons for this situation. Trump's reluctance to resolve issues such as the immigration crisis and Israel in Congress, which he wanted to use in his presidential election campaign, makes it difficult for Republicans to act unitedly. When the legislative process becomes election-oriented, Congress cannot produce solutions or shake off its dysfunctional image.

With the American Supreme Court now considering former President Trump's Colorado case, the debate around the 14th Amendment has become more tangible. The Colorado State Supreme Court had ruled that Trump engaged in an uprising against the American state during the January 6 events, and therefore, he could not participate in elections in that state. Similar decisions were made by the Maine State Secretary amid ongoing legal challenges against Trump using the 14th Amendment. The Supreme Court's ruling in the Colorado case will determine the fate of efforts to prevent Trump from being on the ballot. The conservative majority in the Court raises expectations of a decision favoring Trump, but the rationale behind the decision is crucial for American democracy.

President Biden's message during his visit to a church in the state of South Carolina and the reactions of some protesters seemed like a summary of the dilemma he will face in preparing for the presidential elections. In 2015, a perpetrator advocating white supremacy killed 9 black citizens who came to the church for worship, a message that was discussed in the public eye as a result of Trump's message on the eve of the 2016 presidential elections. By starting his 2024 campaign with a visit to this church, Biden tried to show that black votes would be critical. By making a reference to Trump's expressions about immigrants 'poisoning' the country's blood, he conveyed the message that the real 'poison' is the idea of white supremacy. The messages given to the political electorate in South Carolina, a critical state that brought Biden to candidacy in 2016, stand out as an effort to reach out to black voters, which will play a critical role in the upcoming election.