In U.S. law, elections are held on the "first Tuesday following the first Monday in November," and major events occurring shortly before an election, with significant potential to sway its outcome, are known as "October surprises."

President Biden’s final UN speech of his political career coincides with perhaps the least effective period in American diplomacy. Since October 7, the Biden administration has stood by as Israel’s actions have severely damaged American diplomatic credibility in the eyes of the “international community.”

Israel's latest covert operations, indiscriminately targeting both soldiers and civilians, have now been directed at Hezbollah. In a coordinated attack, Israel detonated devices placed in the pagers and radios of thousands of Hezbollah members, a move that could be studied in intelligence courses for its precision. Previously, Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had exposed a major security flaw in Iran. This new operation, injuring thousands of Hezbollah members, now reveals significant security vulnerabilities within Hezbollah itself. If Hezbollah responds to this provocation, which marks Israel’s latest attempt to escalate tensions in the region, war seems inevitable. However, should the U.S. intervene behind the scenes to prevent Hezbollah from engaging Israel, it would signal that Iran is prioritizing a potential post-election deal with the U.S. over immediate conflict.

In the U.S. presidential elections, while the economy stands out as the most important issue influencing voters, the importance of immigration has been on the rise in recent years. The record number of crossings at the Mexican border in 2023 made this issue one of the country's top priorities. Republican criticism of the Biden administration's so-called 'open border policy' has been quite effective. Actions taken by Republican-led states like Texas and Florida, such as sending migrants to Democratic states like New York and Massachusetts via buses and planes, kept the issue in the spotlight. As many small towns struggled with strained municipal services and budgets due to the influx of new migrant populations, immigration and the border crisis became key topics in the presidential elections.

Kamala Harris quickly gained the support of Democrats and launched her campaign with great momentum after being endorsed by Biden. Within 48 hours, she secured the backing of the party's heavyweights and raised over $200 million in record donations. Her campaign, which effectively targets young people, women, and African Americans with engaging social media content, has shifted the mood among Democrats and disrupted Trump's campaign.

Although Washington was specially chosen for the 75th anniversary, Americans, and even the participants, were focused more on U.S. President Joe Biden and whether he would forget things during his speech.

American politics are experiencing more activity than they have in a long time. While the political earthquake caused by President Biden's debate performance continues, his campaign's unequivocal statement of "I am absolutely not withdrawing" indicates his resistance to calls to withdraw from the race in the coming days. Details reported in the press suggest that Biden's family and close circle recommend that he continue in the race. This group, attempting to dismiss the debate performance as a mere mishap, argues that Biden has overcome past challenges and will overcome this one to defeat Trump. However, this time, the problem Biden must overcome is not external challenges but rather his own health issues, making it unlikely he can convince voters from this point onward.

In a period when there was doubt whether Biden would even agree to debate Trump, he committed to three debates, with the first scheduled for June before the candidates were officially confirmed. This reflected anxiety within the Biden campaign. Despite positive economic signals, Biden was losing ground due to inflation and immigration issues, and struggled to dispel concerns about his age and mental acuity. To project confidence and counter claims that he was afraid to debate Trump, the Biden campaign insisted on a debate format without an audience.

The presidential election in the United States has entered a new phase after the first TV debate between the two candidates, former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump, and President Joe Biden, the candidate of the Democrat Party. The two candidates have clashed over many issues, including foreign policy, immigration and the Palestinian-Israeli question. After the TV debate, both the American public and the world public have discussed many dimensions of the face-off. It is clear that the debate has revealed a leadership crisis in the U.S., which will have implications for the world system.