Everybody from Ankara to Brussels is asking the question “With the Justice and Devlopment Party (AK Party) strengthening its position in government and Abdullah Gül as the new president, will Turkey renew its efforts to join the EU as a full member?” No matter how the AK Party and the Turkish people answer the question, much still depends on what happens next in Europe.
As we have noted many times before, neither Turkey nor the EU is a static entity. As negotiations continue, both sides change their positions on issues. The reason is simple yet important; the reforms introduced as part of the negotiation process are already having an impact on Turkish society. At the same time, they are changing Europe’s perception of Turkey. Politics, economics, the legal system, universities and civil society organizations are all responding to the changes brought about by our current engagement with Europe. The responses range from full support to stiff opposition.
This is perfectly alright. However, everyone knows that the debate is not so much about joining the EU as it is about what course Turkey will take in defining itself in coming decades. With the current political reshuffling in Europe, EU leaders may never bring themselves to accept Turkey as an equal partner. Like the French presidential election, Turkey will continue to be a testing ground for European politicians. Other European politicians may follow Sarkozy’s lead to use opposition to Turkey’s EU membership as part of a conservative domestic agenda.
Besides the game of politics, there is more tension over multiculturalism and accepting the realities of globalization in Europe than in Turkey today. The so-called “enlargement fatigue” is just one aspect of the problem. Like other citizens of the world, the Europeans are having a tough time adjusting to the demands of current shifts in power. There is greater demand for power-sharing from outside entities; the new immigrant communities in Europe, emerging markets, international competition from high-tech industries to universities and new regional developments all force Europe as well as other leading political actors to act as fair distributors rather than jealous collectors of power. Today, the European universities have to compete with their American counterparts. The competition goes way beyond the US; India, China, Russia and other emerging regional powers are all part of the new power-sharing regime.
Europe is likely to respond to this new reality in multiple ways. Like in France and Germany, political leaders with clearly conservative and inward-looking agendas may come to power and oppose Turkey’s EU membership. Other smaller countries like Austria may act as the voice of a belligerent and xenophobic current against Islam and Muslims in Europe. As we saw with the Danish cartoon crisis, freedom of the press may become just the tool to provoke Muslim sensitivities. The recent publication of several cartoons about the Prophet of Islam in a Swiss newspaper is a dangerous sign. The real danger, however, is that every time Europe fails to cope with the hard realities of globalization, it will turn to Islam, Muslims and, yes, to Turkey’s membership to clear its conscience. The whole discourse about Europe becoming a “Eurabia” is just one aspect of this dangerous trend.
It is no secret that Europe has a love-hate relationship with the current world order. The emerging patterns of power-sharing have led to serious soul-searching among Europeans to find a new role for Europe. The question is whether this process will result in opposing Turkey’s membership in the EU. European politicians with a narrow agenda may see a lot of potential in this move.
Can Turkey stand against this tide? It can if it can manage to be apart of the debate rather than just a spectator of it. Turkey cannot afford to merely watch the current debate in Europe and leave the final decision to the Europeans because Turkey’s relat
