The process of re-establishing diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Syria continues unabated. However, we currently lack sufficient information to analyze this process in detail. Neither the Turkish nor Syrian governments have provided clear signals about the roadmap for this endeavor. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to have given the green light for talks with Bashar Assad, who has also expressed his readiness to meet. The National Security Council (MGK) also said that Türkiye would continue to support efforts to reach a genuine public accord that involves all sides in Syria in finding a permanent solution.
Meanwhile, Russia has been actively engaged in diplomacy to unite the two leaders, with statements suggesting that a meeting could occur before the end of 2024. Notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent hosting of Assad in Moscow is likely a step toward accelerating Türkiye-Syria diplomatic contacts. Turkish diplomacy is also working diligently on this matter. The Turkish state bureaucracy has intensified its efforts to develop a detailed and comprehensive roadmap, particularly focusing on the return of refugees and the fight against terrorism.
In the context of the process so far, it is observed that:
- The Turkish government will not attempt to solve the Syrian problem once and for all. In other words, no one in Ankara is discussing or working on a “blanket solution” to the Syrian problem.
- The re-establishment of diplomatic relations will proceed step by step and will take time.
- The process will advance primarily after Ankara and Damascus agree on confidence-building mechanisms and principles.
- Türkiye’s priorities are to find a basis for an agreement on the return of refugees and to take concrete steps in the fight against terrorism.
- Ankara will involve the Syrian opposition in the diplomatic process management.
- Ankara will conduct the process based on the progress made on the critical issues. If the Syrian regime instrumentalizes the process to maximize its own interests or to buy time, Ankara will reevaluate it.
In light of the above information, it is evident that one of the most crucial aspects of re-establishing diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Syria is time management. Reaching an early resolution on the issues at hand will not be easy. The issue of Syrian refugees stands out as particularly critical.
Looking back, approximately 600,000 Syrian refugees in Türkiye have returned to safe areas in northern Syria. However, a framework agreement between Ankara and Damascus will be necessary to initiate a new return process. In this context, the primary condition for return is that the Assad regime provides security and political guarantees for the returnees.
Recent examples show that the Assad administration has implemented practices that hinder rather than facilitate the return. Torture, imprisonment and harsh interrogations are among the methods used by the Assad regime against returnees, making the need for robust security and political guarantees even more pressing.
Another important point is that most asylum seekers wish to return to their original homes. However, in most regime-controlled areas, significant changes have occurred over the last decade, and the properties of those who left are now being used by others. This is particularly true in Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Raqqa, Hassaka and Homs.
Resetting refugees in northern Syria is one of the most challenging aspects of process management. There are serious difficulties in resettling refugees in these regions, which diminishes their willingness to return. More importantly, Syrians want to return to the lands they left. Someone from Aleppo wants to go back to Aleppo. Therefore, the policies of the Assad administration will be more decisive.
The resettlement issue highlights the complexity of managing the return process. The changes in property ownership and the lack of infrastructure and services in many areas exacerbate the difficulties. The Assad regime must create conducive conditions for a successful return, including resolving property disputes and ensuring security and basic services. Without these measures, the willingness of refugees to return will remain low, and the overall process will face significant obstacles.
Another critical issue in managing the return of refugees is the concern among those in Türkiye about the ‘normalization’ process. To address this, Ankara is developing a comprehensive roadmap to manage the situation better. The primary goal is to create the security, political and economic conditions that will enable refugees to return.
Managing the growing anti-immigration sentiment and social reactions in Turkey is as important as the process itself. In this respect, it is crucial that the Turkish government adopts a new communication strategy to convince and reassure the Syrian public in Türkiye. The government is expected to take a new step in this regard and establish a multilateral process.
A diplomatic engagement that excludes the Syrians in Türkiye could decrease their trust in the Turkish government, both in Türkiye and the safe zones and potentially cause the process to fail. Therefore, involving the Syrian refugees in Türkiye in the process is essential to ensure their confidence and cooperation, ultimately contributing to the success of the overall plan.
Another important aspect of the process is the role of the Syrian opposition. There are both military groups that support the process and those that oppose it. From a security perspective, it is crucial that the Turkish government carefully coordinates with the military opposition. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement, “We will not leave the Syrian opposition alone,” reflects this objective.
Reconsidering the security sector in northern Syria and revising political and local administration processes are vital for the roadmap to function properly. It is expected that the Turkish government will formulate a roadmap that considers this issue.
The fight against terrorism and establishing a sustainable and stable security environment may facilitate Ankara-Damascus talks. Conversely, failure to manage these aspects could cause divergence, particularly among the military opposition and complicate the process.
Effective coordination with the Syrian opposition is essential to ensure their support and prevent fragmentation. The Turkish government must address the concerns and needs of both supportive and opposing groups to maintain a united front. By doing so, Ankara can strengthen its position in negotiations with Damascus and increase the likelihood of a successful diplomatic engagement.
Ankara is currently working on the details of the roadmap. The actual process will likely commence following the talks between Erdoğan and Assad. A careful negotiation process that involves all parties and is designed without raising expectations too high may lead to the emergence of a new era in Syria. Therefore, ensuring that the negotiations are inclusive and realistic is crucial. By managing expectations and involving all relevant stakeholders, Ankara can foster a more sustainable and effective diplomatic engagement.
