Shifting power dynamics in Syria: Assad regime and allies face major setbacks

The Middle Eastern developments continue to set the agenda of international politics. The Al-Aqsa Flood has become a turning point for the whole region. The ongoing genocide in Gaza against the Palestinian people and the Israeli aggression against the sovereignty of regional countries, directly and indirectly, influence all regional dynamics. Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian proxies in Syria have dramatically changed the Syrian context as well. As a result of the shifted regional balance of power, the opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), initiated a military operation against Syria's Bashar Assad regime on Nov. 27.

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Shifting power dynamics in Syria Assad regime and allies face
Assad's missed opportunity Türkiye's push for the path to peace

Assad's missed opportunity: Türkiye's push for the path to peace

Türkiye’s extended hand for normalization represented an opportunity for the Bashar Assad regime. Starting in the early months of 2023, Türkiye demonstrated its determination on this issue. Ensuring territorial integrity, clearing terrorism, enabling the return of refugees and ultimately establishing an inclusive and stable administration in Syria – without excluding the regime – offered Assad a viable way out.

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The process of re-establishing diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Syria continues unabated. However, we currently lack sufficient information to analyze this process in detail. Neither the Turkish nor Syrian governments have provided clear signals about the roadmap for this endeavor. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to have given the green light for talks with Bashar Assad, who has also expressed his readiness to meet. The National Security Council (MGK) also said that Türkiye would continue to support efforts to reach a genuine public accord that involves all sides in Syria in finding a permanent solution.

Recent developments have brought the ongoing discussions on normalizing Türkiye-Syria relations back to the forefront. Following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, Syrian leader Bashar Assad, according to the Syrian News Agency, stated, “Syria is open to all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations based on its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country and the fight against terrorism and terrorist organizations.” Similarly, the Syrian News Agency quoted Lavrentiev as saying that Russia supports all initiatives for Syria-Türkiye relations, adding: “We see that the conditions for successful mediation are more favorable than ever. Russia is ready to work to advance the negotiations. The goal is to succeed in restoring relations between Syria and Türkiye.”

Israel has been subjecting Gaza to a total blockade and heavy bombardment for more than a week. While the non-Western world speaks out against those measures, U.S. President Joe Biden offered his unconditional support to Tel Aviv – a development that threatens to cause the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to result in more devastation.

For a considerable period, Türkiye and Syria have engaged in discussions aimed at reshaping their bilateral relationship into a new framework. Most recently, a diplomatic meeting took place in Moscow in April involving foreign ministers from both countries, along with Russia and Iran. However, since April, the trajectory of these talks has become increasingly uncertain. This uncertainty has been shaped by the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, the divergent priorities of the external actors, the strategically ambiguous behavior of the Bashar Assad regime and the lack of capacity of the state of Syria. Other dynamics exist that make the talks between Türkiye and Syria more difficult to reach the real objectives of the negotiations process.

Experts Respond: How will the deadly earthquakes impact Türkiye’s foreign relations?

Southern Türkiye was jolted by twin earthquakes on February 6 that caused unprecedented devastation across an extremely vast area, impacting 11 provinces. Almost on par with the scale of the devastation, Türkiye has also received a huge amount of humanitarian aid from many countries with which Türkiye both has cordial and strained relations. In light of the considerable level of solidarity showcased by many countries, it is still unclear whether this atmosphere of solidarity and amicability will translate into tangible outcomes in the respective bilateral relations between Türkiye and these nations. Likewise, it is also unclear whether the solidarity displayed by countries with which Türkiye had tense relations until the earthquakes will cause a thaw in bilateral ties and lead to a new chapter in relations. We asked foreign policy experts to weigh in on these questions.

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Experts Respond How will the deadly earthquakes impact Türkiye s
Idlib crisis ends with major diplomatic victory for Turkey

Idlib crisis ends with major diplomatic victory for Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Monday. .

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Regime leader Assad wants to claim victory over Idlib to prove he has Syrian lands under his control, says analyst

Syrian regime forces are preparing to launch a major military operation against opposition-led groups in the Idlib province of northern Syria.

What was the strategic importance of Manbij for the United States, the PKK/PYD, and Turkey? What topics will be covered by the roadmap in Manbij? How sincere is the U.S. with Turkey about its PKK/PYD policy? Will U.S. military activity in Sinjar Mountain jeopardize Manbij Agreement?

Why did the Lafarge Group strike agreements with DAESH, the YPG, Al-Nusra and other terrorist groups in Syria? Was the French state involved in such agreements? If so, to what extent? How do these incidents impact the Lafarge Group and the French state?

Turkey's plan to build a wall on the Syrian border ruins the YPG's plans, and that is why it is trying to do its best to prevent the construction of the wall by killing workers

Ankara is getting ready for a military operation against the threat of a terror corridor on the Syrian border, dispatching military convoys to southern cities, hitting PKK/PYD targets in Afrin

Trump's decision to stop "this nonsense" caught the Pentagon and the U.S. State Department by surprise.

Turkey has initiated the Idlib Operation in order to eliminate the possibility of the emergence of another human tragedy, and to avoid the loss of many lives.

Regional actors taking position in the Syrian town of Idlib seems to be changing the balances in the whole region

Turkey does not rightfully believe the U.S.'s empty promises and is determined to continue its fight against terrorist groups in Syria

Turkey, which liberated the Azaz-Jarablus and al-Bab areas from Daesh terrorists as part of Operation Euphrates Shield, will not move out from the region until the Syrian equation is determined.