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AK Party One Step Ahead

AK Party: One Step Ahead

The public debate on Turkey's new constitution and possible transition to a presidential system is entering a new stage. Constitutional reform will be a prominent feature of Turkish politics until at least the 2019 presidential election. In the wake of the PKK's return to violence and the most recent developments in Syria, some observers might argue that the presidential system isn't a priority. The opposition, furthermore, possibly believes that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) are looking to gain more political power, using constitutional reform as a smokescreen. The political process, however, cannot exclusively focus on urgent matters. Quite the contrary, the prospect of long-term change often assumes a central role in the political arena. President Erdoğan's advocacy of the presidential system alone isn't why constitutional reform will be an important issue over the next years. In recent months, the president has been talking to a range of audiences including mukhtars and local governors about the presidential system. According to public opinion surveys, the president's emphasis on the issue increased public support for a presidential system from 20 percent to 50 percent. Until now, the president has made the case that a presidential system was a more democratic system of government amid the opposition's claims that constitutional reform would pave the way to a dictatorship. The driving force behind a presidential system, however, is the ability to combine the people's demand for change and expectations from the government. At this point, a Turkish-style presidential system remains the only option available to the people who are eager to address the current system's shortcomings and develop a vision for the future. A presidential system, likewise, seems to be the only way to overcome the post-Gezi Park turbulence. Over the next few months, the public debate on the state of Turkish democracy, separation of powers and local governments will continue in reference to the presidential system. The process will inevitably cause friction between advocates and opponents. Needless to say, the international media will make the case that Turkey is going down a dangerous path.Unless the opposition parties develop a viable alternative to a presidential system, they won't be able to move beyond reactionary politics. Until now, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) have refused to engage in the presidential system debate and instead decided to wait for the AK Party to present a draft - which they will declare anti-democratic. The AK Party, in turn, has a two-step strategy: First, the party will organize a comprehensive campaign to debunk popular myths about the presidential system. Then they will present their draft to the people. Until now, the opposition parties haven't even been able to agree on a new version of the parliamentary system and effectively let the AK Party establish its monopoly on change - the most powerful word in politics today. Whether or not Turkey's current system of government undergoes changes, the AK Party will continue to be one step ahead of its competitors. Under the circumstances, it's hardly difficult to forecast the results of the 2019 election. [Daily Sabah, February 1, 2016]