SETA D.C. PANEL   Moderator:     Kadir Üstün     Doctoral Candidate at Columbia University   Speakers:     Taha Özhan     Director-General of the SETA Foundation     Ömer Taşpınar     Brookings Institution Date: December 9, 2009   Venue: SETA D.C. 1025 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite #1106 Washington, D.C.  

One of the most significant findings of a study conducted jointly by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) and PollMark, titled “Turkey's perception of the Kurdish issue,” is that the majority of society views the Kurdish issue as the most important political issue of Turkey after unemployment, which can be seen as an economic problem.

The decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court to reject the closure case against the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) opens a new chapter in the history of Turkish democracy.

It was in 1965 when İsmet İnönü, former Turkish president and leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), defined the CHP's position in Turkish politics as the "left of center."

If there is one golden rule for understanding Turkish politics, it is this: You can never take anything for granted in Turkey. A case filed against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has come as a shock to many Turks as well as international observers.

After days of debate and uncertainty, Abdullah Gül is finally a presidential candidate. Now Gül is busy trying to garner support for his nomination and, all being well, will be elected by the end of this month. What kind of a president will he be? And will his presidency provoke another political crisis in Turkey? These two questions will dominate the agenda for months to come. However the developments so far already provide some clues. By nominating Gül again, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) read the election results in the way their constituents read them -- Gül’s presidency was part of the election campaign from the very beginning. It would be wrong to reduce the AK Party’s victory to Gül alone, but the AK Party’s record over the last four-and-a-half years and what happened during Gül’s candidacy was a complete package for the vast majority of those who voted for the AK Party on July 22.

The short-term winner of the July 22 elections is the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) but the big winner is the traditional periphery of Turkish society. The AK Party’s challenge now is to turn this victory into an asset for those who voted for the party. And this means electing a president who will not be a disappointment for the vast majority of the public.

The Turkish general elections are set to take place this Sunday. If there is no major disruption at the last moment, we should expect a “normal” election. But can Turkish politics normalize after the stakes have been raised to almost irrational levels?

Election campaigns in Turkey are in full swing. The political parties have mobilized all of their resources to get more voters on their side. But the July 22 election appears to be more than just politics as usual. Four main factors underlie the current election campaign. The first is “power politics.” All political parties are vying for a greater share at the ballot box. Political leaders are engaged in heated debates, accusing one another of not representing the center. The center keeps shifting from ultranationalist to social democrat and conservative. Promises range from the reasonable to the far-fetched. All political actors are desperately trying to gain the people’s confidence.  

Opposition is one of the major elements in a democracy’s becoming institutionalized, putting down roots and developing in a healthy manner. 

We are currently living in a state of uncertainty under which we are not clear as to whether the expression “Turkey is having an election on July 22” is a mere assertion or a decision. Apparently not every decision to hold elections naturally leads to an election atmosphere.   

At its face value, these are exciting times for Turkish politics. A number of attempts are underway to unite the political right and the political left. They are driven by a zeal to save the Republic again. But no alliance is good without a common enemy. And the new enemy is AK Party Such attempts at unification have been undertaken before. Leadership for the political right and the political left in Turkey has always been up for grabs.

With July 22nd set for national elections, Turkish politics has entered a new phase. While AK Party is faced with the most important challenge of its political life to date, Turkish democracy is also put to the test. Over the next ten weeks, we will see a deep identity politics playing out in the Turkish political space.

The string of events beginning with Abdullah Gül’s candidacy for president has revealed once more the fragile nature of Turkish democracy. While an ideological battle is being fought over who owns the core values of the republic, the current crisis puts democracy in Turkey to the test. The current crisis is carefully crafted and based on an old theme in Turkish politics: the ideological legitimacy of those who demand change

We’re only five weeks away from April 16, when the candidates for the new president of Turkey will be announced. According to the rules, the new president has to be elected within 10 days of April 16. While the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) continues to keep silent on its name(s), the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is moving ahead under the assumption that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have himself elected president.