The upcoming Turkish elections are not characterized by complete right-left polarization. Right-wing parties and former Justice and Development Party (AK Party) members are at the CHP’s table. In truth, anti-Erdoğanism represents the backbone of the opposition campaign, but that is not enough to win. That’s because neo-Kemalist CHP and IP voters do not think that anti-Erdoğanism could justify Kılıçdaroğlu’s engagement with the HDP. Likewise, they are seriously frustrated by the PKK and FETÖ’s thinly veiled endorsement of the prominent opposition leader. In their view, Kılıçdaroğlu and his many vice presidential candidates are not fit to govern Türkiye.

We are confident that this issue of Insight Turkey entitled “Türkiye at the Crossroads: The 2023 Election” will addresses some of the issues that have been dominating the political agenda lately in Türkiye and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

Türkiye will hold the most critical elections in its recent past on May 14, 2023. The haste and increasingly intense rhetoric of electoral alliances and candidates attest to that fact. Before the war of words between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his opponent, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, kicks off in the final stretch, it would be helpful to summarize what each candidate says about the future (and what they refrain from saying).

Although the checks and balances mechanisms in modern liberal democracies have increasingly diversified, the most effective means for accountability and controlling leaders is still the ballot box. Of course, free, fair and competitive elections are not the only condition for a regime’s pluralistic and libertarian rule, but it is a prerequisite.

On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a decree for Türkiye to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, 2023. The country thus started counting down to the most consequential elections in its recent past – and this year’s most important election worldwide.

Retracting from her comments due to the CHP’s attacks and isolating herself within the opposition bloc, IP Chair Akşener is likely to face pressure from secularists over the HDP’s involvement

The opposition leaders charge President Erdoğan with instituting ‘one-man rule’ but their solution is unimaginable. Nowhere in the world has political power been shared by eight parties

The ongoing turmoil within the opposition bloc on picking a presidential candidate suggests that a possible victory by their candidate could trigger widespread political unrest in Türkiye

Ironically, the level of difficulty increases as the Turkish opposition bloc's 'processes' become clearer

The level of ambiguity seems to increase as that debate continues, mainly because the Turkish opposition bloc, known as the 'table for six,' is in a challenging and contradictory pursuit

GP Chair Davutoğlu and DEVA Chair Babacan, the 'engineers' of the 'table for six' who face harsh criticism, work very hard to ensure the success of a political initiative that would lead to main opposition CHP’s domination

The pro-PKK HDP strengthened its hand vis-à-vis the 'table for six' by opting to field its own presidential candidate

Gaining the least from being at the 'table for six,' IP Chairperson Akşener could face political failure due to the sacrifices required to compromise on both a joint presidential candidate and common policy issues

The main opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu wants to use 'the system' and 'the table’s endorsement' to his current profile as 'the most obvious candidate'

The tug of war between the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Good Party continues over the selection of a presidential candidate. My sense is that the latter faces a “lose-lose” situation.

Distribution of parliamentary seats could encourage various players to work closer together, and the opposition fielding multiple candidates would actually benefit the People’s Alliance

The organizers of the gatherings in Istanbul's Saraçhane tapped into President Erdoğan’s past experiences, including his 1998 ban from politics and subsequent struggle, to write 'the Imamoğlu story,' but the real question is: Can Imamoğlu write his own story?