The G-20 Summit in New Delhi, India – whose main theme was “One Earth, One Family, One Future” – was the focal point of diplomacy last week. Notably missing Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Summit could not have produced a joint declaration for the first time.

Successfully managing the risk of a confrontation in Syria, the two leaders strengthened their cooperation in a broad range of areas, including energy, tourism and defense. As the bilateral trade volume reached $69 billion, the two nations set a new target of $100 billion. Against the backdrop of the construction of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, there are ongoing talks over the possibility of building another plant in Sinop.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid an important visit to Iraq between Aug. 22-24. Iraq is one of the most strategic countries in the neighboring geography for Türkiye in terms of the fight against terrorism, energy geopolitics, economic relations, internal stability and rivalry between the countries in the region. Therefore, Fidan’s visit is quite critical before President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's expected visit to Iraq.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Budapest on Sunday, along with heads of state and government from the Turkic states, the Balkans and Qatar, on the occasion of Hungary's national day.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan delivered his most comprehensive speech on his vision of a national foreign policy and the Foreign Ministry’s role at the 14th Ambassadors Conference. Stressing that the global system was experiencing “complex and multiple crises,” he highlighted injustice, risks and the need for change. Arguing that Türkiye, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership, shall be among the countries shaping the new international system, Fidan added that the "Century of Türkiye" vision’s foreign policy objective was to transform Türkiye into a “system-building player.”

Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal continues to capture the global media’s attention as that decision disproportionately hurts African nations. Having hosted 17 African heads of state and government last week, the Kremlin used the discourse of “opposing new Western colonialism together” at the Russia-Africa Summit – where Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged free grains to Africa.

Due to the lack of global leadership and the increase of uncertainties and insecurity in the wake of the collapse of the bipolar world and the Soviet Union, many small and middle states began to restructure their foreign policy orientation. The intensification of global rivalry, the increase of unilateral intervention and the return of power politics have led small and middle states to diversify their foreign relations and form regional political and economic platforms to overcome global threats and challenges.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned the question of Sweden’s NATO membership into an opportunity to start a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the West. Having hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Istanbul ahead of the Vilnius summit and stating that Ukraine deserved to join the alliance, Erdoğan brought up the need to remove obstacles before his country’s European Union membership.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan started a new debate ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Commenting on Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance, he argued that the relevant countries should “clear Türkiye’s path to European Union (EU) membership.” That statement aligned perfectly well with the readout of Erdoğan’s most recent phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden.

The Vilnius Summit is taking place at a time when the NATO alliance is beginning to overcome the strategic ambiguity it has experienced since the Cold War. Following the United States' declaration of a "war on global terrorism" after the September 11 attacks, NATO became involved in Afghanistan, but the alliance was unable to develop a strategy that aligned with the changing international security system. NATO's 2010 Strategic Concept document mentioned cooperation with Russia but made no reference to the threat posed by China. Failing to provide a strong response to the annexation of Crimea, the alliance suddenly found itself facing the risk of nuclear war in Europe with Russia's attempted occupation of Ukraine. This development served as a reminder of NATO's core mission and highlighted the need for a complete reassessment of Europe's security. The alliance attempted to present a comprehensive vision against Russia, China, and other global threats in its 2022 Strategic Concept document.

Türkiye and its Western allies within the NATO alliance have been passing through a tense period due to the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian War that erupted in February 2022. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European countries close to Russia have perceived a threat from Moscow. Therefore, large-scale measures were taken by these countries and their allies in the West. Within this context, the NATO alliance and its enlargement policy have come to prominence.

Türkiye gained the world’s attention yet again – this time, due to its diplomatic activism. Ten days before the grain deal’s expiry, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Istanbul. At the same time, diplomats and journalists continue to wonder whether Türkiye will approve Sweden’s NATO membership application ahead of the Vilnius Summit on July 11-12, 2023. Furthermore, Erdoğan is scheduled to visit the Gulf states on July 17-19 and host Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on July 27.

Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”

This analysis will first address the factors that will determine the direction of Turkish foreign policy in the new era. It will then provide evaluations regarding a possible approach to its relations with the actors involved in the most important and prioritized issues of Turkish foreign policy, with a geographical perspective.

Turkish foreign policy is faced with the task of preserving the gains it has made in various critical issues, from Libya to Azerbaijan, Ukraine to the Eastern Mediterranean, while improving economic relations with Europe, increasing effectiveness within NATO, and managing the impacts of global power shifts.

The election campaign has finally boiled down to a debate over the “real” nationalists. It is hardly surprising that nationalism, which has been on the rise globally since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s term, remains critically important in Türkiye – which continues to combat terrorists.

What international media have dubbed “the world’s most important election in 2023” is less than a week away. Whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins will have wide-ranging implications.