SETA Security Radar: Türkiye’s international and regional agenda

The current international landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, marked by escalating crises and increasing globalization of conflicts. Amidst intensifying global and regional competition and growing uncertainties, we find ourselves in an era of widespread anxiety. Predicting the future in such times is a formidable challenge, yet it’s crucial to envision what the world of tomorrow might resemble. Addressing today’s challenges requires both study and foresight. "SETA Security RADAR: Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024" aims to project the future trajectory of Türkish foreign, security, and defense policies in light of current dynamics.

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SETA Security Radar Türkiye s international and regional agenda
SETA Security Radar Türkiye s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024

SETA Security Radar | Türkiye’s Geopolitical Landscape in 2024

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2023.

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Describing 2023 as a relatively quiet year for Turkish foreign policy would exclude the events of Oct. 7 and their aftermath. The trend of normalization, ongoing since the general elections in May, played a pivotal role in determining the overarching course of foreign policy. Despite unresolved issues, emphasis was placed on minimizing potential conflicts and prioritizing common interests. In the post-election period, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opted for a regional foreign policy centered on Gulf country relations, making the economy a primary focus. To mitigate security risks from Syria, ministerial-level talks with the Assad regime were initiated. Noteworthy strides were made in normalizing relations with Israel and Egypt. Erdoğan’s robust support for Azerbaijan in liberating Karabakh bolstered Türkiye’s status as a geopolitical player in 2023.

For Türkiye, Turkish-Greek relations have shifted from being solely a security concern to a potential axis of cooperation. While prioritizing its foreign policy within a broader geopolitical context, Ankara has chosen to address issues with Greece pragmatically. Nevertheless, changes in the regional strategic landscape, Türkiye’s rising influence, emerging regional challenges and its geopolitical presence in the Eastern Mediterranean following the maritime jurisdiction agreement with Libya have once again placed the relationship on a competitive and security-focused footing.

"There is no problem that cannot be solved between us," Erdogan told reporters as he met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens on Thursday, adding that he wanted to turn "the Aegean into a sea of peace and cooperation".

Türkiye-Greece Summit | Sailing Through Positive Agenda

Podcast: On the Eve of a New Century | Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Part II

On the Eve of a New Century | Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Part II

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Podcast On the Eve of a New Century Türkiye s
ErdoÄŸan's messages from the Tashkent summit

ErdoÄŸan's messages from the Tashkent summit

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, for the 16th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit. Besides attending ECO’s General Assembly meeting, he held meetings with the host, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and President Ersin Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

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On the Eve of a New Century | Türkiye’s Foreign Policy Part I

The stakes in the Israeli atrocities against the Palestinians are quite high for Western countries, the United States in particular. Due to their unconditional support for the Israeli war crimes in Palestine, the U.S. and European partners cannot get support for their position in other international crises such as the Ukrainian-Russian War. It means that the Israeli-Palestinian question will serve as one of the most important turning points in the decay of the Western, i.e., American hegemony.

As the 14th day of the Israeli offensive in Gaza unfolds, the humanitarian crisis associated with this conflict continues to intensify. The unwavering support from the United States and a significant contingent of Western nations for Israel’s aggressive military campaign has created an exceptional situation, allowing Israel’s actions to go unchecked. The adoption of collective punishment as a war strategy by both Israel and the U.S., with their resolute backing, threatens to destabilize the region and jeopardize global security on an unprecedented scale.

The current political climate in Türkiye and Greece, coupled with the shared commitment of political leaders to pursue a positive agenda, presents a crucial opportunity for a more constructive dialogue in Turkish-Greek relations. Having faced the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, earthquakes, wildfires, economic crises and the adverse repercussions and risks of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as well as the escalating tensions in Gaza, which could impact the entire region, the two neighboring countries should, at the very least, acknowledge the imperative need to address their issues through sincere political dialogue.

Hakan Fidan’s commentary underscores the dynamic shifts in geopolitical landscapes, the escalating global challenges, and the position of Türkiye in this changing international system. He emphasizes Türkiye’s aspiration to emerge as a pivotal player, characterized by inclusivity and efficacy, capable of addressing the pressing global and regional issues. Fidan asserts that in this 21st century, Türkiye is resolutely committed to shaping the foundations for enduring peace and prosperity within its region and beyond, all while adeptly safeguarding its national interests amidst a turbulent global milieu.

Merely skimming over the world news, one quickly notices Türkiye’s growing geopolitical significance. Let me elaborate by highlighting four issues, excluding countless others – including migration, armed drones, the Altay tank and Türkiye’s rapprochement with Egypt. Türkiye will host the third international meeting toward the Ukraine peace summit. Ankara pledged to target all PKK terror groups and its Syrian presence YPG assets in Iraq and Syria. Azerbaijan refused to participate in EU-brokered talks with Armenia in Spain, citing Türkiye’s exclusion. Last but not least, the Abu Dhabi-based investment company ADQ is in talks with Türkiye regarding constructing a railroad over the Bosphorus as part of a trade corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and Asia. Obviously, Türkiye’s direct involvement in peace diplomacy, counterterrorism, the South Caucasus region’s stability and energy/logistics corridors does not just relate to its geographical location.

The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire set the stage for Türkiye’s evolving foreign policy in the Middle East, a region deeply intertwined with its historical legacy. From the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 to the rise of the AK Party in the early 2000s, Türkiye’s approach has been marked by pragmatism, adaptability, and a keen understanding of regional dynamics. The nation's foreign policy has oscillated between neutrality, revisionism, proactivity, reactivity, assertiveness, autonomy, and diplomacy, reflecting both its historical ties and strategic imperatives. As Türkiye continues to navigate the complexities of the Middle East, its foreign policy remains a testament to its enduring resilience and strategic acumen. By tracing its roots and evolution, the article sheds light on the myriad factors that have shaped its course, offering insights into the evolving nature of Türkiye’s multifaceted and adaptive foreign policy and role in the Middle East over the last 100 years (1923-2023).

This paper explores Türkiye’s relations with Africa, focusing on Somalia, Nigeria and Libya from both humanitarian and security perspectives. To do so, the study employs the concept of soft power in relation to the security and humanitarian policies that Türkiye has adopted on the African continent. Though Türkiye has no significant colonial history on the continent like other European countries, its relations with Africa in recent decades are no secret and continue to strengthen against all odds. From a relationship that stems from historical links with the Ottoman Empire to more promising and positive impacts on the continent in recent years, it is important to understand these ties amidst the increasing distaste expressed by some African nations towards the West. Using examples of Türkiye’s security and humanitarian deployment in Somalia, Nigeria and Libya, it is perhaps no surprise to perceive the relationship between Türkiye and African nations as a dichotomy between humanitarian and security.

New geopolitical transformations are taking place in world politics as the inability of international organizations, starting with the United Nations, to promote peace and security encourages all countries to prepare for new solutions, cooperations and rivalries.

The latest issue of Insight Turkey seeks to offer a thorough examination of Türkiye’s historical journey and its evolving foreign policy, with a focus on the implications these changes hold for Türkiye’s future. This issue holds particular significance as Türkiye approaches its centennial anniversary as a republic, marking a significant milestone in its foreign policy trajectory. Within this context, President Erdoğan has launched the ‘Century of Türkiye’ vision, a strategic initiative aimed at enhancing Türkiye’s position on the global stage.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s address at the 78th United Nations General Assembly provided a profound insight into the global and regional priorities that guide Turkish foreign policy. In an era marked by escalating global and regional power rivalries, growing global uncertainties and a changing regional geopolitical landscape prevalent with security challenges, Türkiye faces the imperative of redefining its foreign policy.