Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations

As a reaction to certain regional and global developments, a large-scale normalization process was initiated in the Middle East at the beginning of 2020. As part of this normalization, Türkiye and the Gulf states normalized their relations three years ago to increase their autonomy and effectiveness in international politics.

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Recalibrating Türkiye-Gulf relations
Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Türkiye is rising actor in the Gulf

Deepening Türkiye’s ties with those three Gulf states in trade, defense, technology, communication and security amounts to more than just reciprocal investments. After all, Türkiye has been gaining influence over the balance of power in that region. The country now seeks to form strategic alliances with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi – as it did with Doha several years ago. It is also possible for other Gulf states to become part of that trend.

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Monday as part of his tour of the Gulf states. Over the course of four days, he will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) with a focus on investments and commercial relations. However, it is possible to argue that Erdoğan’s trip goes beyond strictly economic relations and marks the beginning of a new chapter in Türkiye’s relations with the Gulf.

As we witnessed one of the most significant elections on the centennial of the Turkish Republic’s founding, Insight Turkey proudly presents a special issue that meticulously evaluates the elections and examines how Türkiye’s foreign policy will be shaped in their aftermath and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

Türkiye will preserve its “strategic autonomy” and redouble its efforts to promote normalization and stronger relations based on “mutual interests.”

China brokered a historical agreement on March 10 that aims to restore the conflictual relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The trilateral joint statement was signed by Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid bin Muhammed Al Aiban, and Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office. Considering its influence in the region and international politics, this mediation effort and agreement is a diplomatic victory for China.

The debate over normalization with the Assad regime in Washington

The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Assad in Damascus and delivered humanitarian aid to Syria through the regime. The day after the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister al-Nahyan, who is trying to lead the normalization process with Syria, Assad allowed UN aid teams to cross into opposition-controlled areas of Syria. It is no secret that many Arab countries, including the UAE and Egypt, prefer normalizing ties with the Syrian regime. Although the American administration has expressed its opposition to normalization efforts with the Assad regime in the region, there is no indication of serious pressure being exerted on this issue.

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The debate over normalization with the Assad regime in Washington
Türkiye and Egypt Realignment shaping Middle East

Türkiye and Egypt: Realignment shaping Middle East

The two countries’ relationship had deteriorated with the pro-status quo Arab countries after the Arab insurgencies and revolutions erupted in 2011. As a result, the Middle East states were divided into two camps: pro-change and pro-status quo coalitions. However, after the consolidation of the status quo in the region and new dynamics of the area, the regional states have begun to normalize their relations with the rest of the region.

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It is necessary to uphold the sense of solidarity, which emerged among states after the earthquakes. Last but not least, one would hope that the humane way of thinking can triumph over the idea of interest and exploitation in international relations. This is a time to focus on moral values and solidarity – not realpolitik.

With the world's attention diverted by the Russia-Ukraine war throughout the year, the Middle East was not at the top of the international political agenda in 2022

In this new volume of SETA Security Radar, we analyze the main dynamics shaping Türkiye’s security and geopolitical landscape with references to the most significant foreign policy and security issues throughout 2022.

President Erdoğan’s handshake with Egypt's el-Sissi eliminated a symbolic obstacle; yet, intelligence services and diplomats will have to engage in additional diplomatic contact to further the normalization process between Ankara and Cairo

The U.S. has sent a cache of weapons to Greece, some of which were allocated on the Aegean islands. Thus, the U.S. government has indirectly supported Greece’s breach of international law. According to international treaties, these islands have a demilitarized status.

Hardly anyone is surprised by the Greek public’s concerns over Türkiye in this climate of fear. Such concerns or fears have been at the heart of Greek politics for many years.

‘Samarkand and New York summits have shown Türkiye’s determination of following an independent, diversified and global-scale foreign policy’

Türkiye has pursued normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel and Saudi Arabia over the last two years, which enabled that country to strengthen its bilateral cooperation with the participants of both summits.

Following the Arab Spring, all the nations in the Middle East started to pursue a phase of regional softness after a protracted era of strife and rivalry. In many areas of the Middle East, the normalization agenda is being implemented in a coordinated manner based on specific concerns.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to reshape the international balance of power. In this new era, Türkiye distinguishes itself thanks to its diplomatic activity. Indeed, the country has been so important that the Western media, which constantly refer to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as “the sultan,” cannot help but concede that cooperation with Türkiye is absolutely necessary. Surely enough, all eyes turned to Erdoğan when the world needed a broker between Russia and Ukraine, someone needed to create a "grain corridor" in the Black Sea and when Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership.

The visit had global-level dynamics. On one hand, both countries want to decrease their respective dependencies on global powers and need to cooperate with one another. On the other hand, they want to increase their global autonomy. They have begun to instrumentalize a global power against the other.

Türkiye’s influence has been growing, globally and regionally, as a balancing power. In this sense, Ankara must refrain from becoming a party to regional polarization while remaining active in the region.

Türkiye emerges as a power that generates stability and security in its neighborhood – Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, the Gulf and North Africa.