Türkiye elections: How will the vote affect foreign policy?

What international media have dubbed “the world’s most important election in 2023” is less than a week away. Whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins will have wide-ranging implications.

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Türkiye elections How will the vote affect foreign policy
Western manipulations in Turkish electoral arena

Western manipulations in Turkish electoral arena

Türkiye will hold both presidential and parliamentarian elections on Sunday. It is generally being shared that Türkiye is at a crossroads. All internal and external observers consider the elections as the most important elections in the whole world. That is, it is not only vital for the Turkish people but also important for the region and even for the world. The results of the Turkish elections will have significant implications for both national and international politics. Today, I want to take some notes on the Western perceptions of the coming elections.

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The Western media doubling down on its anti-Erdoğan campaign in the home stretch is hardly surprising. In addition to The Economist, which went well beyond endorsing the opposition candidate in Türkiye’s presidential race, publications like Foreign Policy, Le Point, L’Express, Der Spiegel and The Washington Post have been notably involved in the Turkish elections.

With Türkiye entering the final week of the 2023 election campaign, rhetorical battles have notably escalated. It would be wrong to reduce that development to peak polarization because what observers have called this year’s most important election remains critically important for the country’s future.

The pro-PKK Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) led Labor and Freedom Alliance officially endorsed Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the main opposition's Republican People's Party (CHP), last week. That they backed the main opposition leader was the worst-kept secret in Türkiye, but it is important to note that they justified their decision with reference to “the triumph against fascism in the most consequential election in the country’s political history.”

Türkiye has become one of five countries that build fifth-generation warplanes.

First-round, second-round and post-election scenarios in Türkiye

Türkiye has reached the election’s home stretch as voters abroad began to cast their votes on Thursday.

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First-round second-round and post-election scenarios in Türkiye
Ripple effect Unseen voters and drama of Türkiye's election night

Ripple effect: Unseen voters and drama of Türkiye's election night

With less than 20 days before the Turkish elections, the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance continue campaigning, believing they are set to win. At the same time, pollsters continue to release numbers supporting both sides’ claim of imminent victory, making the campaign more tense and ambitious.

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Terrorist organizations will become more ambitious and voters will grow more concerned unless and until Kılıçdaroğlu publicly pledges to continue the fight against terrorist groups with the same level of determination as the current government. Otherwise, he will face mounting criticism that he could not speak up against terrorists for the sake of “a handful of votes.”

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition bloc’s presidential candidate and chairperson of the Republican People's Party (CHP), released two videos titled “Kurds” and “Alevi” last week. He claimed that “millions of Kurds were treated like terrorists for a few votes” in the first video. In the second, he identified as “Alevi” and called on young people to “tear down this discriminatory system claiming that an Alevi cannot (hold office).”

As the rigid discourse of Turkish and Kurdish leftists merge with the CHP’s ultra-secularism, DEVA, the Felicity Party (SP) and the GP watch from the sidelines and offer a standing ovation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will run against each other in the 2023 presidential race in Türkiye. It will all boil down to one of the two leading candidates winning over undecided voters. That’s why I believe the final weeks to be extremely important and the race to be head-to-head.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on Tuesday unveiled its election manifesto titled “The Right Steps for the Century of Türkiye.” The 481-page text, which the party painstakingly thought out, comprises six chapters and attaches importance to future projects, ways to improve living standards, and pursuing ambitious goals in foreign policy and national security.

A total of 26 political parties submitted their parliamentary candidate lists to the Supreme Election Council (YSK) on Sunday. They faced criticism over their picks – just like in every other election. Obviously, such lists represent the outcome of vigilant plans that take many different factors into consideration. Such as it is perfectly natural in failing to address all expectations at the grassroots level and for some people to be unhappy.

Everyone seems to agree that Türkiye will make a “critically important choice at a historic crossroads” on May 14. That makes us expect an election campaign where each candidate and their parties will speak their truths. Do not be fooled by the ongoing calmness, as electoral alliances have been trying to expand and negotiate candidate lists in the month of Ramadan.

As Türkiye’s political parties put the final touches on their parliamentary candidate lists, presidential contenders are expected to focus on campaign events after the holidays. At the same time, political debates, rhetorical battles and shows have been getting more intense.

Political parties in Türkiye are working hard to finalize their candidate lists by the April 9 deadline. The relevant committees probably find it more difficult to select candidates today than ever. The already-complex selection process is further complicated by electoral alliances producing joint lists in certain districts and trying to predict how those decisions may influence the allocation of parliamentary seats.

The upcoming Turkish elections are not characterized by complete right-left polarization. Right-wing parties and former Justice and Development Party (AK Party) members are at the CHP’s table. In truth, anti-Erdoğanism represents the backbone of the opposition campaign, but that is not enough to win. That’s because neo-Kemalist CHP and IP voters do not think that anti-Erdoğanism could justify Kılıçdaroğlu’s engagement with the HDP. Likewise, they are seriously frustrated by the PKK and FETÖ’s thinly veiled endorsement of the prominent opposition leader. In their view, Kılıçdaroğlu and his many vice presidential candidates are not fit to govern Türkiye.

It would seem that HDP has started dominating the opposition bloc with its radical demands as well as marginal discourse.

We are confident that this issue of Insight Turkey entitled “Türkiye at the Crossroads: The 2023 Election” will addresses some of the issues that have been dominating the political agenda lately in Türkiye and we hope and believe that the insightful and stimulating debates raised on the issue will be helpful to our readers.

This article analyzes the approaches of the two major electoral alliances set to compete in the upcoming elections, instead of focusing on each political party’s proposed system of government separately.